Lionel Messi, Inter Miami MLS playoff chase: After LAFC victory, how likely is it they can catch 9th place?

After being treated to the appetizer of Lionel Messi in Leagues Cup play where the Argentine star led Inter Miami to the title while registering 10 goals and one assist, we’re beginning to enter crunch time where he’ll now need to lead them to a playoff berth against all odds. It’s a picture that’s getting rosier for the Herons, after defeating Los Angeles FC but they’ll need to keep up their red hot form as they now trail D.C. United by eight points heading into a home match against Sporting Kansas City. With their current form, the climb into a playoff spot is not insurmountable and nothing seems impossible for this red-hot squad. 

But not only will Miami need to pick up as many points as possible, but they’ll also need help from the teams around them as they don’t control their own destiny. The other squad members will also be critical as during international breaks in September and October, Tata Martino could be without a large portion of the roster while facing Sporting Kansas City and Charlotte FC twice. 

Serhiy Kryvtsov has already been called up by Ukraine, Messi, Robert Taylor, and Josef Martinez will also be with their nations. Even Drake Callender and Benjamin Creamashi have been called up to the United State men’s national team,  Miami will have holes in the roster which Martino will need to work around. New signings Diego Gomez, Tomas Aviles and Facundo Farias will make that easier to do but everyone will need to contribute to weather the storm. 

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Over the last three seasons, the line for ninth place was 43.3 points. While it’s a small sample size due to expansion clubs being added left and right and Nashville flipping conferences every year, it at least provides a marker for what Miami need to do to have a shot. Currently on 25 points, they’d need to average two points per game to make that line so let’s see if that’s possible based on the remaining schedule.

Miami’s current position in the standings

Total points: 25
Record: 7-4-14
Eastern Conference position: 14th
Games remaining: 9

Miami’s upcoming schedule and predictions

Sept.  9	7:30 p.m. ET	Sporting Kansas City	Inter Miami 3, Sporting 1
Sept. 16	5 p.m. ET	@ Atlanta United	Atlanta United 3, Inter Miami 3
Sept. 20	7:30 p.m. ET	Toronto FC	Inter Miami 5, Toronto 0
Sept. 24	7:30 p.m. ET	Orlando City SC	Orlando City 1, Inter Miami 2
Sept. 30	7:30 p.m. ET	New York City FC	Inter Miami 2, NYCFC 0
Oct. 4	8:30 p.m. ET	@ Chicago Fire	Chicago 1, Inter Miami 3
Oct. 7	7:30 p.m. ET	FC Cincinnati	Inter Miami 2, FC Cincinnati 3
Oct. 18	8 p.m. ET	Charlotte FC	Inter Miami 2, Charlotte FC 0
Oct. 21	6 p.m. ET	@ Charlotte FC	Charlotte FC 1, Inter Miami 3

If my crystal ball is correct, that would put Miami on 47 points which would’ve missed playoffs before their expansion to allow eighth and ninth in, but could put them on pace for a berth this season while also creating a nightmare for the one seed in the conference if they can win the play-in round. It’s also important to note that the tiebreaker for MLS is the number of wins and not goal difference and that’s where Miami could have a large advantage due to not drawing many games this season compared to the teams in front of them in the table.

Margins are thin as the projections not only have a small sample size but they also don’t take into account that ninth place is a bigger incentive than in years past. Miami have a mountain to climb in the league but with Messi, the Herons have already achieved history so they can’t be ruled out from keeping the incredible form going. Nobody has been able to stop them just yet even the reigning MLS champions.