Florida is having its hottest year on record and it could get worse
Additional heat records are predicted across south Florida over the coming days while the entire state will remain hotter than normal from Key West to Pensacola.
So far this year, temperatures have averaged three to five degrees above normal in the Sunshine State. Some of the warmth is attributable to a very warm Gulf of Mexico, linked to record-warm oceans worldwide. And in recent weeks, a sprawling heat dome has stretched over the state producing heat indexes of 100 to 110 degrees or even higher, with regularity.
On The Washington Post’s heat tracker, Jacksonville’s predicted 107-degree heat index — a measure of how hot it feels factoring in humidity –was the highest of any city in the nation. On Thursday, the forecast heat index of 105 is tied for second highest.
Rain has also been hit or miss in a state known for its summer wet season. The western side of the peninsula, including Tampa, is experiencing drought, which is only worsening the heat.
In Miami, heat records began to fall at the beginning of the year and have yet to stop. Fourteen record highs have already occurred, including four in June. Another could occur as soon as Friday, when mid-90s are forecast.
It’s having its warmest year on record so far, running 0.3 degrees above 2020, the next warmest year. Miami’s seven warmest years to date have all occurred since 2008. Six of the seven have come since 2015.
Punishing humidity levels have joined the extreme heat to make the air particularly sultry. “Miami has broken eight daily heat index records just since the middle of June, some by several degrees,” said Brian McNoldy, a tropical weather researcher at the University of Miami, in a message.
McNoldy said that the peak daily heat index has reached 100 or higher for 25 straight days with no end in sight. He added that dew points — a measure of humidity — have been running in the 78-80 degree range, compared to the usual 75-76 degrees. Any dew point above 70 degrees indicates uncomfortably high humidity.
It’s not just Miami that’s baking. It’s a record hot year in Florida from the Panhandle to the Keys:
- The average temperature in Tallahassee, the state’s capital, is 0.3 degrees above 1927, the next warmest year.
- The tourist hotspot of Orlando is also a weather hotspot. Its 74.2 degree average is a notch higher than 2020, it next warmest year. Five of Orlando’s 10 warmest years have occurred since 2015.
- This year’s average temperature in Key West so far is 79.2 degrees, about a degree and a half ahead of 1975, the next warmest year.
- Fort Myers has registered high temperatures of at least 90 degrees on a record 78 days to date, and on 31 more days than average.
In rain-deprived Tampa, it’s the second warmest year on record to date, just a hair behind last year. It had its warmest July Fourth on record, soaring to 97 degrees. That was only 2 degrees from the city’s highest temperature on any date of the year.
Drought exacerbating the heat
Drought conditions along the western peninsula of Florida is intensifying the hot weather.
The same area heavily impacted by Hurricane Ian last year hasn’t seen a lot of rain since. Moderate drought currently runs from near Tampa to Fort Myers, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Year-to-date rainfall totals of 12.07 inches in Tampa, 10.06 inches in Sarasota and 8.70 inches in Naples are roughly 10 to 12 inches below average through early July, and among the 5 to 10 driest (to date) on record.
The lack of rain dries out soil, which allows the ground to heat more quickly than if it were rain-soaked.
With a rainy season that runs from mid-May to mid-October, there is still time to put a dent in these precipitation deficits. In Tampa, most of the two wettest months of the year, July and August, still lie ahead.
More record heat probable
The pattern that has delivered record warmth is unlikely to fully abate anytime soon. Much of the Florida Peninsula is poised to spend the next week or two with temperatures averaging several degrees above normal.
Beyond that time, it’s possible that the heat dome affecting the region will migrate westward. This could at least temporarily shift the hottest conditions toward the Southwest U.S.
Jason Samenow contributed to this report.
