Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions

The Boston Red Sox (46-39) and Miami Marlins (30-56) meet for the finale of a 3-game series Thursday. First pitch from loanDepot park is set for 1:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Red Sox vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Boston leads 2-0

Boston routed Miami 7-2 Wednesday while covering as a -126 road favorite. RHP Brayan Bello picked up the win with 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 7 K. The Red Sox have won 3 consecutive games, including 8-3 Tuesday in the series opener.

LHP Trevor Rogers took the loss (3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 6 K ) as Miami has allowed 7 or more runs in each of its last 3 games, all losses.

Red Sox at Marlins projected starters

RHP Nick Pivetta vs. RHP Kyle Tyler

Pivetta (4-5, 4.52 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.22 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 in 61 2/3 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 4 K in a 9-2 loss vs. San Diego Padres Friday
• Career vs. Miami: 2-5, 5.23 ERA (53 1/3 IP, 31 ER), 1.35 WHIP, 11.0 K/9 in 13 appearances (9 starts)

Tyler (0-1, 3.38 ERA) makes his 3rd start and 4th appearances. He has a 1.22 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 5.9 K/9 in 10 2/3 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 4 K in a 2-0 loss at Philadelphia Phillies Friday
• First career start vs. Boston

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Red Sox at Marlins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:03 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Red Sox -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Marlins +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox -1.5 (+105) | Marlins +1.5 (-125)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Red Sox at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Red Sox 7, Marlins 6

Moneyline

PASS.

I like Boston to pick up the win here as the Red Sox are the better team and as they have won 4 straight on the road, but they are not worth the risk of betting on as -160 favorites. Bet on the run line and/or total instead.

Run line/Against the spread

LEAN MARLINS +1.5 (-125).

Miami has kept things very competitive with Boston, being 3-2 in the last 5 meetings and 4-6 in the last 10. Combine that with Boston being 6-4 in its last 10 overall while Miami is 4-6 in its last 10 outings, and I expect a competitive game from the Marlins here.

This is a very slight lean because both teams are below .500 ATS this season.

Over/Under

BET OVER 8 (-115).

The Over has hit in each of Miami’s last 3 games and is 4-0 in its last 4 home games. For Boston, the Over is 3-0 in its last 3 road games and 7-3 in its last 10 overall. The Over has also hit in back-to-back Boston-Miami matchups and is 3-1 in the last 4 meetings in Miami.

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