Miami Dolphins 2024 NFL offseason primer: Questions include Tua’s contract, bad cap situation, O-line

Miami Dolphins’ 2023 season: 11-6, lost in wild card

Overview: Everything was lined up for the Dolphins in early December. The team was 9-3 and seemingly ready to run away with the AFC East crown. But a stretch of three losses in its last five games derailed Miami’s division title hopes and led to an ugly road playoff loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in a brutally cold wild-card game. It continued a troubling season-long trend of Miami struggling against the league’s better teams.

Still, the Dolphins boasted the NFL’s No. 1 offense in yards per game, led by quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and guided by head coach Mike McDaniel. With an explosive offense like that, and assuming a little better injury luck on defense than it had in 2023, this is a team that should continue to win a lot of games going forward. But the first question Miami and general manager Chris Grier must answer this offseason is what to do with Tagovailoa: sign him to his first long-term extension or exercise his fifth-year option and figure out the rest later?

Key free agents

DT Christian Wilkins
C Connor Williams
OG Robert Hunt
EDGE Andrew Van Ginkel

Who’s in/out: Wilkins has become one of the NFL’s premier defensive tackles, grading as Pro Football Focus’ second-best run defender while also putting up a career-high nine sacks this past season. In other words, Miami isn’t letting this guy walk away, even if he’ll demand top-end money at his position. He’s a prime franchise-tag candidate. Elsewhere, the team will have to make some difficult decisions between keeping Williams and Hunt on the offensive line and Van Ginkel on defense. It won’t be able to afford to re-sign them all.

Key free agent needs

Center
Offensive guard
Tight end

Why the holes? Between the impending free agency of center Connor Williams and guard Robert Hunt and the age (32) and injury history of left tackle Terron Armstead, Miami could be left with a bunch of holes up front on offense. And it’s no mystery the team could use a reliable pass-catching tight end to take some pressure off the receiving tandem of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

Do they have the money?

For now, no. Spotrac projects Miami to be $51.3 million over the cap, which is the third-worst situation in the NFL. Given the cap crisis, the focus of this offseason will be trying to retain the top-end talent already on the roster. Naturally, the team can push money into future years by restructuring highly paid players like Hill, Jalen Ramsey and Bradley Chubb, but there’s a chance one or two key free agents will be lost as cap casualties.

Potential notable cuts

DE Emmanuel Ogbah
LB Jerome Baker
RB Jeff Wilson

Why they might be gone: Ogbah struggled in 2023 and talked openly about his frustration with being benched for a game late in the season. As a post-June 1 cut, he could save the Dolphins $15.8 million on the cap. Similarly, Baker could net the team $11 million in cap savings if they cut him after June 1. And with a relatively full running back room with Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane, Wilson could become expendable.

Draft picks

1st round: No. 21
2nd round: No. 55 overall
5th round
6th round (via Bears)
6th round
7th round

Good draft fit

Troy Fautanu, OL, Washington

Why him? The advantage to a player like Fautanu is his ability to play either guard or tackle. He doesn’t have overwhelming length but may still have the skill to take over the right tackle spot. Either way, he’d represent an important talent injection to a position of need, according to Yahoo’s Nate Tice and Charles McDonald in their latest mock draft.

What can move the fantasy football needle this offseason?

At first blush, a lot of things went right for Miami’s offense last year — Tyreek Hill was the best fantasy WR on a per-game basis, and Raheem Mostert ranked second in cumulative points and third in points per game among running backs. But injuries and ineffectiveness held Jaylen Waddle down to a WR29 finish, and Tua Tagovailoa was merely a par as the QB10. Give us a healthy Waddle and a step forward from explosive second-year back De’Von Achane and the 2024 Dolphins have a shot to be a top-three offense. — Scott Pianowski