Miami Dolphins offseason decisions: Tua, Wilkins, free agents
KANSAS CITY — The Miami Dolphins immediately go from competing to advance in the postseason to exit interviews and planning out their offseason.
It happens that quickly when an NFL team gets eliminated from the playoffs, like the Dolphins did Saturday night, losing, 26-7, to the Chiefs in an AFC wild-card round game in below-0-degree weather in Kansas City.
Miami’s season was fun, exciting, but all the big stats and extravagant touchdown celebrations still didn’t lead the team to a playoff win. The franchise is still without one since 2000. It didn’t even get a home playoff game with a division title after leading by three games in the AFC East with five weeks remaining in the regular season.
Sure, injuries at the end of the season played a factor, but it’s extremely disappointing that a roster with this much talent on it across the board still netted a first-round exit.
The Dolphins have several offseason decisions to make. Here’s a look at them:
What to do with Tua?
Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa led the NFL in passing yards in 2023 — a year after he led the league in quarterback rating.
Sounds like a guy that’s a slam dunk to get a big contract extension, right? He even stayed healthy for a full season for the first in his professional career.
Not so fast.
Although he has done mostly everything asked of him, Tagovailoa still has questions surrounding whether he can win big games, his ability to handle pressure from opposing defenses, how he handles inclement weather and if he can perform when missing one of his top two wide receivers.
The Dolphins have Tagovailoa under contract for next season at a figure just south of $23.2 million because they exercised the fifth-year option on his contract last offseason.
General manager Chris Grier and the Dolphins’ front office will have to determine if what he has proven warrants a new deal. They probably wouldn’t want to put him in the upper echelon of quarterback salaries, like Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts and Justin Herbert, who are above $50 million in average annual salary.
It could be worth Miami offering him something in the lower 40s and allowing Tagovailoa to decide if he wants to take it. If he doesn’t — or if the Dolphins are still not ready to commit to anything long-term — play out the fifth year of his deal to see if it swings the decision one way or the other. If the decision is still in flux after that, the Dolphins have the option to franchise tag him at that point, too, to continue taking it year to year.
Christian Wilkins’ free agency
Speaking of fifth-year options, the Dolphins’ standout defensive tackle just finished playing on his, and he had another quality output for the most part.
Wilkins, who held out portions of the training camp due to his contract but later set his focus on the season, needed to prove he can provide an interior pass rush this season. He did that, totaling nine sacks, which doubles his previous high, and putting 23 hits on a quarterback.
It came at the expense of some of his every-down tackle production. He was down to 65 tackles, from 98 in 2022 and 89 in 2021.
He and Zach Sieler, who already got his extension, are a fierce duo and great friends. Wilkins has said he wants to stay with the Dolphins. He probably also expects to be paid among the NFL’s best at the position, despite not yet having a Pro Bowl on his resume.
Something to keep in mind with both Tagovailoa and Wilkins’ negotiations: Miami is projected to be about $40 million over the cap in 2024. But that figure can be manipulated with trades, cuts and contract restructuring to create adequate space for the franchise’s prioritized moves.
Coaching decisions
No, coach Mike McDaniel isn’t on any hot seat for the way this season ended. He is certainly secure heading into the 2024 season, but if problems persist and he doesn’t lead this roster to playoff success and legitimate contention, questions could start to be asked after that.
McDaniel has to have honest conversations with himself on a number of things.
Often criticized for his play-calling, should he give up those duties to focus on overseeing the entire operation while delegating play-calls to offensive coordinator Frank Smith?
Smith, by the way, has been requested for an interview for a head coaching position with the Carolina Panthers. If he does end up getting that job or another one across the league’s array of openings, does quarterbacks coach Darrell Bevell immediately become offensive coordinator? Bevell, with ample experience in that role, should again draw interest around the league for such a position.
There are always coaching changes. Does McDaniel opt to move on from special teams coordinator Danny Crossman? Kick and punt returns were costly in Miami’s final two regular-season losses to the Ravens and Bills, which put the team in the predicament of going on the road in the first round of the playoffs. But McDaniel stuck by Crossman last offseason when the Dolphins had a rough season with his unit.
Other smaller position coaching moves could happen. Linebackers coach Anthony Campanile could get a look for a defensive coordinator job somewhere.
McDaniel should also look into his replay review system. Winning a challenge Saturday night brought his success rate up to just 3 of 13 in two seasons as a head coach.
Free agency
Beyond Wilkins, the Dolphins have key free agents in center Connor Williams, right guard Robert Hunt, outside linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel, safety DeShon Elliott, nose tackle Raekwon Davis and several others.
Williams has been great in two seasons at center in Miami, but he tore an ACL in early December. Hunt dealt with an injury, his hamstring, for the first time in his four-year career. The two, if healthy, could be staples on the long-term outlook on the offensive line with right tackle Austin Jackson locked in on an extension and Pro Bowl left tackle Terron Armstead aging.
Van Ginkel’s season ended prematurely with a foot injury, but he was valuable filling in for the injured Jaelan Phillips late in the season. It’s unknown how much his injury affects his contract status.
Aside from free agents, 2021 first-round picks Jaylen Waddle and Phillips are up for decisions on the fifth-year options of their contract for the 2025 season. Waddle seems like a no-brainer. Phillips’ situation, which would’ve been a home run midway through this season, now is complicated by his torn Achilles that may cost him training camp and the start of next season.
With the salary cap situation what it is, not all will be brought back, especially if either Tagovailoa or Wilkins get paid. Miami can also find cheaper options elsewhere.
Draft young quality talent
For the first time in three offseasons, the Dolphins will have a first-round pick.
Well, that’s if they don’t trade it before the late April draft.
Miami needs to hit on this selection. Their first picks in the past two drafts, second-round cornerback Cam Smith in 2023 and third-round linebacker Channing Tindall in 2022, have barely seen defensive snaps.
With so many expensive contracts on the books, the Dolphins need to be able to fill holes with quality players on rookie contracts to sustain themselves as competitive once bringing in more expensive free agents becomes untenable.
Grier usually drafts best player available, but a well-rounded tight end could be a quality addition.
