Do the Miami Marlins have enough starting pitching depth?

The Miami Marlins lost Sandy Alcantara for the 2024 season due to Tommy John Surgery. How does The Fish’s starting pitching depth look going forward? Is there enough upside? Is there a need for more “inning-eaters”? Is there enough protection for injuries?

Let’s start with the projected five starters. Jesus Luzardo is of course a lock to be at the top of the rotation. The young ace produced a 3.58 ERA/3.55 FIP, with 10.5 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 32 games and 178.2 innings pitched. Eury Perez is going to be at the top of the rotation as well. He had an excellent debut in 2023, producing a 3.15 ERA/4.11 FIP, with 10.6 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in 19 games and 91.1 innings pitched. Eury should pitch more innings in 2024, and hopefully Luzardo will stay healthy, as he had injury issues in the past.

Braxton Garrett is likely to be third in the rotation. He produced a 3.66 ERA/3.68 FIP, with 8.8 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9 in 31 games and 159.2 innings pitched. Garrett might pitch more innings in 2024 and should be a solid mid-rotation arm. Trevor Rogers is going to b at the bottom of the rotation, but he’s a major question mark.

Rogers produced a 2.64 ERA/2.55 FIP, with 10.6 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9, in 25 games and 133.0 innings pitched. Since then, he produced a 5.26 ERA/4.32 FIP, with 9.0 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9, in just 27 games and 125.0 innings pitched. He has a ton of upside, but could struggle and it’s unclear how many innings he can actually pitch. Edward Cabrera will likely round out the rotation. He has an elite strikeout rate (10.1 for is career), but terrible walk rate (5.4 for his career). He has a career 4.01 ERA and a 4.78 FIP.

Who do the Miami Marlins have for depth? Sixto Sanchez hasn’t pitched in years but was a top prospect back in the day. I don’t know what can realistically be expected from him at this point. Max Meyer is coming back from injury as well, and is a former top prospect. A surprising candidate is A.J. Puk, who was a starting pitcher in the Oakland Athletics farm system. That’s a risky endeavor and I question stretching him out. At best, he’s probably a bottom of the rotation starter.

Ryan Weathers has a career 5.88 ERA/5.64 FIP, with 6.8 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9. I don’t have much hope for him, but maybe a breakout is still possible. It’s obvious that the Miami Marlins need more depth however. I would say the team needs at least a couple more depth arms.