Expanded MLS playoff format puts the league at risk of complacency: MLS Weekly

Welcome to Week 27 of our staff column collecting news, insights, and highlights from around Major League Soccer. 

Major League Soccer executives are getting what they wanted.

With just a few weeks left in the regular season, all but two teams remain in the hunt for a playoff spot. By choosing to expand its postseason this year so that 18 of 29 teams make the playoffs — 62% of the league — MLS hoped to engage more of its fan bases for longer. Never mind that the majority of teams were in the playoff picture late into last season, too. The hope was that maybe they could squeeze a few more teams into the picture and, more importantly, a few more games into the playoffs.

Is this really what a league should want, though?

Playoffs are supposed to be a reward. It’s validation that a team is headed in the right direction, or that it put together a solid roster. The idea is that you earn a chance to win a championship. That is not what MLS is giving us. More importantly, failing to make the playoffs is crucial to increasing competitiveness on the field. It increases the intensity of games and pushes owners to invest more in their teams to ensure they have a playoff-worthy squad.

If you went to fans of teams fighting for the eighth and ninth playoff spots, I wonder how many of them would want their teams to sneak into the playoffs rather than face the consequences of poor seasons? How many owners are going to use back-dooring into the eighth or ninth seed as a reason for not changing their investment approach, or for not making needed changes to a front office? How many sporting directors or coaches are going to use finishing in 18th place — or even 19th or 20th place — in a 29-team league as justification for a “satisfactory” approach to the season?

“We made the playoffs. We were right there in the end.”

The Chicago Fire lost five of seven games since returning from the Leagues Cup break. It is a reflection of the roster it built. The Fire beat a similarly bad New York Red Bulls team, 1-0, on Saturday night and suddenly it’s one point out of a playoff spot.

New York City FC went from late April until mid-August winning just one MLS game. A record of 1-8-8 in that stretch. They are seven points out of what would have been the playoffs last season, a reflection of that horrid run of form. But right now they’re the eighth seed and we’re being asked to get excited to watch them in the postseason later this month.

Minnesota United has won one of its last eight games. In last season’s format, Minnesota would be five points out of a playoff spot, evidence of an already-forgiving format that would have given the club plenty to play for into the final weeks, even if it still missed the postseason. This year? Minnesota is just one win away from a playoff spot.

The silver lining for MLS is that Inter Miami and Lionel Messi are alive because of the expanded format. But even that spotlights how easy it is to get into the postseason. Inter Miami was in last place before Messi arrived. He played in four MLS games and Miami went 3-0-1 in those games. Now, with its star out due to injury, Miami has been able to stay alive in the race with two draws in its last two games. They are four points out of the playoffs with four games remaining.

There is no doubt that the play-in game will be competitive and fun to watch. Knockout games bring a different sort of energy, as was evidenced at MLS is Back and the Leagues Cup. And we know the knockout games in the MLS playoffs are almost always entertaining. But it seems MLS keeps inventing ways to create do-or-die games without giving enough consideration to how a smaller playoff pool might up the intensity of the bulk of its product: the MLS regular season.

Are the two knockout games worth decreasing the value of the regular season so much that the 26th and 27th-ranked teams in MLS are still alive for the playoffs with just a couple of games left on the schedule?

MLS execs claim that when you look back on a season, every game matters. Sure. That’s fine. But we don’t watch sports in hindsight. Sporting Kansas City failed to win in its first 10 games of the season. Anywhere else in the world, that form is fatal. In MLS, it’s shrug-worthy. If a fan knows their team can fail to register its first win until May, like SKC, or can win one game from July 8 through Oct. 1, like D.C. United, and still have a playoff shot, why should they bother tuning in or showing up until those final weeks?

Yes, paring back the postseason means you would be forced to sacrifice inventory from the playoffs. But the hope is that in doing so you increase the importance of the entire regular season.

The league wants to increase national interest in the product. It needs to find a way to get Portland fans to care about Austin-Real Salt Lake games, or Red Bulls fans to tune in to Orlando City–Charlotte FC games. It has to entice sports fans in Chicago to watch a Fire game in the summer, or New York fans to skip a Mets game to watch NYCFC. Exactly what kind of narrative are they selling that compels those fans to care? The on-field product is behind the top leagues in the world and the stakes don’t feel real until the final few weeks of the regular season.

Instead of putting so much focus into developing the Leagues Cup, MLS would be smart to study whether slimming the playoffs down would help the competitiveness of its product by increasing the value of every win and thus enticing owners to invest more in the product to give their teams a better chance of making the cut. — Paul Tenorio

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On Saturday, FC Cincinnati completed a remarkable turnaround that seemed unfathomable two seasons ago. Upon entering the league as an expansion side in 2019, Cincinnati quickly became an MLS laughing stock. In its first three years in MLS, Cincinnati managed just 14 wins from 91 matches. There was consistent turnover within the front office and on the touchline. Instability and a lack of vision left the club languishing in last place.

But Cincinnati is now the best team in MLS. They’ve claimed their first Supporters’ Shield and first-ever MLS trophy (that isn’t wooden) after defeating Toronto FC 3-2. Under head coach Pat Noonan and general manager Chris Albright, Cincinnati has erased its previous losing mentality and replaced it with a championship culture. Even with a postseason spot locked up, the team is still chasing records. Cincinnati could overtake New England Revolution’s 2021 points record by winning its final three games and reaching 74 points. In February during the MLS preseason, Noonan spoke with The Athletic and explained why he took the job in the first place.

“If you can look past (the previous seasons) you see the infrastructure, and after meeting with ownership you see the ambition,” he said. “You have a great training facility, a world-class stadium and you have the resources. At that point, it’s just a matter of getting the right people in the building to move it in the right direction.”

Cincinnati is now headed toward the playoffs as the number one overall seed. They have a league MVP candidate in Lucho Acosta, a reliable center forward in Brandon Vazquez and a balanced style of play that’s perfectly suited for success in MLS. After the win in Toronto, Noonan referred to the Supporters’ Shield conquest as “a special moment for the club.” Asked if he thought it was possible when he took over last season, Noonan flashed a rare smile and revealed what is perhaps the secret to Cincinnati’s change in fortune: confidence.

“You think it’s possible,” said Noonan. “Your ego, the belief always has you thinking big. Our entire technical staff, the front office, everybody. Over the two years, we’ve become so strong as a group that this was a possibility. Hopefully, it’s the beginning of more success and more trophies for this club.” — Felipe Cardenas

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Sorry, St. Louis. We were wrong.

With a 4-1 win over rival Sporting KC on Saturday, St. Louis City SC broke LAFC’s record for most wins in an expansion season and became the first expansion team to win a conference crown.

With 56 points, St. Louis is just two points away from surpassing the 2018 LAFC team for most points in an expansion season. It’s a remarkable achievement for a team many picked to finish last in MLS in its first year in the league.

“You can check these boxes now, you can check a few things off the list,” head coach Bradley Carnell told reporters after Saturday’s win. “But we wanna keep on going now. We need a couple of more points to make 58 points, I believe, to make our own.”

St. Louis started off the year with five wins in its first five games, and that success proved to not be an anomaly. They’ve continued to find ways to win despite having a roster that lacks a bonafide star. João Klauss and Nico Gioacchini have 10 goals apiece, while Eduard Lowen has 14 assists. A huge amount of credit goes to Carnell, who had success as an interim manager with the New York Red Bulls and has shown his high-pressing system translates to St. Louis, as well.

It will be interesting to see how St. Louis can continue to push through in the playoffs. Since the midway point of the season, They are 0-4-2 against teams in the top-7 in their respective conference, with wins over San Jose (8th), Colorado (14th), Toronto (14th), Miami (13th), Austin (12th), Dallas (9th), Minnesota (11th) and Sporting KC (10th). In fact, just five of their 17 wins have come against top-7 teams this year — none since June 4. They have taken care of business against other teams, though, at a better pace than any other rival in the West, and they will enjoy home-field advantage in the playoffs. St. Louis is 11-3-2 at home.

History shows that even the best expansion teams haven’t been guaranteed anything once the playoffs start. LAFC went in as a No. 3 seed in the playoffs in that 2018 expansion season but lost to sixth-seeded RSL in the knockout round. Atlanta United was also eliminated in the knockout rounds of its successful expansion season in penalties to Columbus. Will St. Louis City be able to surpass those teams as the most successful expansion team of the modern era? — Tenorio

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Galaxy vs. Timbers worthy of #MLSAfterDark

The newly bloated playoff picture has kept several teams in the hunt during the season’s final weeks, as Paul has already mentioned, whether they look like a team deserving of playing into November or not.

This weekend had a few high-stakes games featuring flawed playoff contenders, but LA Galaxy’s match against the Portland Timbers sums the state of the homestretch up nicely. You could forgive the home support congregated in Carson, California if they were surprised to still have a chance at a postseason berth given the team’s maddening form, the number of injuries to key players (including, at present, Riqui Puig) and the summer transfer ban. You could also forgive supporters of visiting Portland for a similar level of shock after a woeful summer swoon led to Giovanni Savarese’s dismissal.

And yet, the fact that Portland entered Saturday ranked sixth in the West while the Galaxy was only seven points out of the final play-in spot led to a wildly entertaining affair. LA center back Eriq Zavaleta was at the heart of an exciting 3-3 draw. Despite last scoring an MLS goal on April 21, 2017, the El Salvador international managed to net a brace for his team while gifting the Timbers with an own goal in between his intentional tallies. The matchup between Dairon Asprilla and Raheem Edwards featured plenty of technical tricks and back-and-forth springs, with each man netting an assist for their efforts.

A tie was ultimately a fair result as neither team looked demonstrably better than the other. The point will be worth far more for Portland’s playoff hopes than the Galaxy’s, who may now need to win three of its last four games to have a hope of surpassing Dallas for ninth place. It also extended the Timbers’ strong response since Savarese’s departure, having won five and drawn two in eight games under interim coach Miles Joseph. In the end, it was another worthy installment of #MLSAfterDark. — Jeff Rueter

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Trouble in Austin?

When Rodolfo Borrell left Manchester City to become Austin FC’s sporting director over the summer, head coach Josh Wolff was a big reason why. Speaking to The Athletic’s Pablo Maurer in July, Borrell, who most recently was an assistant under Pep Guardiola, believed Wolff and the positional style of play he has tried to incorporate at the club were ideal fits with his own sporting background.

“If Josh wouldn’t have been the head coach right now I would not be joining Austin FC,” Borrell said. “If I thought the style of play at Austin was too far from what I believe in, I would not have joined. That’s the reality. I am not just trying to play nice with Josh.”

There’s a new reality, however. Austin has not won a match since July 15th. Last week, the hashtag “Wolff Out” was circulating on social media platform X (formally Twitter). Austin’s current winless streak stretched to 10 games after Saturday’s loss to the Colorado Rapids. Their football has become uninspiring after expectations skyrocketed with last season’s success.

Austin was poor in its inaugural season in 2021 but improved radically in 2022. They finished second in the Western Conference and battled for the Supporters’ Shield. Star attacker Sebastián Driussi finished second in the MVP race after scoring 22 goals. Driussi’s output in 2023 exemplifies Austin’s struggles. The Argentine has had a quiet season, scoring 10 goals and adding just three assists.

From the outside, one would assume that Borrell’s confidence in Wolff has been shaken. Borrell comes from Barcelona’s school of football, so anyone who coaches in Austin will have to be a very specific fit. On the other hand, Borrell may view Austin’s talent on the pitch as a bigger problem, and continue to have faith in Wolff. How Borrell chooses to fix Austin will be one of the bigger stories of the MLS offseason. – Cardenas

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MLS music to your ears

In September, we ran a survey to see how viewers are consuming MLS Season Pass’ debut campaign. Over 4,000 people took time to answer questions about the new platform, spanning topics from the glossy new visuals to how Messi’s arrival has impacted coverage of their favorite teams. While the full results are still to come, here’s a preview of who viewers’ favorite play-by-play announcers and color commentators were.

Provided a list of the 19 most commonly deployed play-by-play voices, fans deemed Adrian Healey to be their favorite in a fairly balanced contest. Healey was the main voice of ESPN’s MLS coverage from 2011 to 2018 before becoming the voice of Austin FC for the club’s first two seasons. The other seven commentators to garner at least 5% of the vote mainly worked on local, club-specific broadcasts before the Apple deal: Kevin Egan (Atlanta), Callum Williams (Kansas City and Minnesota), Max Bretos (LAFC), Jake Zivin (Portland), Keith Costigan (Seattle), Steve Cangialosi (New York Red Bulls) and Chris Wittyngham (Miami).

The competition was less balanced when it came to color commentators, with the platform’s lead analyst Taylor Twellman commanding 28.6% of the vote. Fellow former United States international Maurice Edu was next, while a quartet of former team-specific analysts rounded out the pack with at least 5% of votes: Danny Higginbotham (Philadelphia), Kyndra de St. Aubin (Minnesota), Brian Dunseth (Real Salt Lake) and Lloyd Sam (Charlotte).

For all the fresh faces and innovation on offer, it turns out that fans may just want to run back ESPN’s main MLS partnership from 2012 through 2018. — Rueter

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Three good reads

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One weird thing

Fans of teams in England’s pyramid system have been adjusting to a new rule this season which bans the use of towels before a player executes a throw-in. The idea is simple: full minutes were wasted as teams prepared their heaves, and fans seldom buy tickets to check on which linens each team prefers. However, Seattle Sounders midfielder Nicolás Lodeiro showed off the entertainment potential that the FA has cast aside.

The Uruguayan was allowed to retake his attempt instead of being charged with a foul throw. His redo’s eventual target? The side netting of Nashville’s goal. — Rueter

(Top photos: Nick Turchiaro and Ron Chenoy, USA Today Sports)