Miami Heat’s Cap Situation Could Prevent Key Signings In Summer
The Miami Heat are one win away from the NBA Finals, with all of their focus going to actual basketball for the rest of the season. Understandably so.
That means onus is on us to look ahead, and break down their somewhat complicated salary situation for next season.
Given that the Heat have found, and developed, multiple undrafted players, who are now producing for them to an extent where they’re either starting or fully-fledged rotation members, it makes sense that those players are looking for a raise after such a successful season where they defied expectations.
While Caleb Martin, the club’s best backup during this postseason, has already been taken care of last year when he signed a three-year deal worth $20.4 million, he’s hardly Miami’s only discovery.
Max Strus, who has started for Miami during the entire playoffs, is putting up 11.0 points, 3.5 rebounds, and functioning as one of the team’s best floor spacers. This is the second year of Strus’ breakout, making him a know commodity for both the Heat, and around the NBA.
Strus is in for a serious pay increase, likely looking at a starting salary of the Non-Tax Mid-Level Exception, estimated to be worth around $11.5 million this summer. Odds are good he’ll receive substantially more as he isn’t as one-dimensional as his teammate Duncan Robinson. Strus is a better defender, he’s more athletic, and he’ll play the open floor more than Robinson, who signed for $90 million over five seasons in 2021.
Will Strus get the same amount of money? That remains to be seen. But asking for something in that ballpark wouldn’t be unreasonable. The Heat won’t have matching rights, due to Strus’ status as an unrestricted free agent. They do have full bird rights on him, given that he’s currently playing in his third straight season for Miami. That will allow them to re-sign him to a rich deal, if they find common ground.
Point guard Gabe Vincent is finding himself in almost the exact same situation as Strus. The Heat also have full bird rights on him, as he’s spent the entirety of his four-year career in Miami, but he too is an unrestricted free agent.
Vincent, like Strus, is in his second year of being a highly crucial role player, and part-time starter. He even won the starting point guard spot earlier this season, supplanting Kyle Lowry. He’s averaging 13.1 points, 4.1 assists, and drilling 2.4 three-pointers per game in the postseason, receiving over 30 minutes per game.
With Lowry getting both older and less effective by the season, the Heat are likely to want Vincent back, especially after he’s spent so long in head Erik Spoelstra’s system. Miami is an organization that likes continuation, which should give Vincent a leg up on the competition.
In terms of financial compensation, Vincent should also be looking at well over $12 million per year, if not over $15 million if he’s to remain the full-time starter for the foreseeable future. Outside teams will definitely place calls to his agency on him, and there should be competition for his services.
That brings us to the complexity of next year’s salary sheet.
The aforementioned Lowry has one year remaining on his deal worth $29.6 million, which clogs up the cap quite considerably. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo will collectively earn an estimated $77.7 million just between the two of them, and Tyler Herro’s extension of $120 million over four years kick in this summer to the tune of $27 million.
Robinson adds $18.1 million to Miami’s books, Martin adds $6.8 million, and Victor Oladipo has a player option worth $9.4 million which he’s almost guaranteed to pick up.
That’s already an estimated $168.6 million in salary on just seven players, and that’s before adding in new deals for Strus and Vincent.
Regardless of how Miami slices this, something has got to give.
Lowry and Robinson, who combine for almost $48 million in salary, are the two players the organization would prefer to find new homes for. Unfortunately, it seems highly improbable that any team would wish to take on either of those contracts, unless they can send out similar money back to Miami, which defeats the purpose for the Heat.
Asking any team with enough cap space to absorb one of these players won’t come for free. Teams will ask for compensation to do so, meaning Nikola Jović and future first round draft picks.
That leaves Herro, who teams with cap space will absolutely absorb, even while relinquishing assets to Miami in form of picks.
Perhaps Miami can swing a string of deals starting with Herro and his salary being absorbed by another team, who send back picks. Those picks could then be offered as compensation to other teams for taking on Lowry and Robinson.
It’s a stretch, and Miami would lose a significant amount of talent in that process, but it would drastically improve their salary cap situation, and allow them to re-sign some of their key players.
Losing Herro is a lot, though, even if he hasn’t been a part of these playoffs due to a broken hand. He was supposed to bridge eras for Miami, and this would effectively force the Heat into having no future assets to work with, which is never a good idea.
But outside of dealing Herro, and using his value to get off other contracts, the Heat are looking at a salary cap situation for 2023-2024 that might be untenable.
Unless noted otherwise, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball-Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
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