Duke vs. Miami prediction, odds: 2023 college basketball picks, Jan. 21 best bets by proven model

The ACC takes center stage in the early window on Saturday afternoon. The No. 17 Miami (Fla.) Hurricanes face an intriguing road test against Jon Scheyer and the Duke Blue Devils. Miami is 15-3 overall and 6-2 in ACC play this season, with the Hurricanes posting a 3-2 record in true road environments. Duke is 13-5 overall, 4-3 against ACC foes, and 9-0 at Cameron Indoor Stadium in 2022-23.

Tipoff is at noon ET in Durham. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Blue Devils as 5.5-point home favorites, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 148.5 in the latest Miami vs. Duke odds. Before making any Duke vs. Miami picks, be sure to check out the college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. The model enters Week 11 of the season 41-21 on all-top rated college basketball picks, returning more than $1,200 for $100 players. Anybody who has followed it has seen profitable returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Duke vs. Miami and just locked in its picks and CBB predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are the college basketball odds and betting lines for Miami vs. Duke:

• Duke vs. Miami spread: Duke -5.5
• Duke vs. Miami over/under: 148.5 points
• Duke vs. Miami money line: Duke -260, Miami +210
• Miami: The Hurricanes are 4-1 against the spread in road games
• Duke: The Blue Devils are 5-4 against the spread in home games
• Duke vs. Miami picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why Miami can cover

Miami is elite on offense, and the Hurricanes also have strengths on defense. Miami is No. 2 in the ACC in free throw rate allowed this season, and the Hurricanes have an 11.3% steal rate and a 9.9% block rate. Miami is holding opponents to 31.9% shooting from 3-point range, and Duke is shooting just 31.0% from long distance this season. Duke is No. 10 in the ACC in adjusted offensive efficiency during conference play, and the Blue Devils are committing a turnover on more than 20% of offensive possessions against conference opponents. 

On offense, Miami is in the top 10 of the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, and the Hurricanes are elite inside the arc with 56.3% shooting on 2-point attempts. Miami is making more than 76% of free throw attempts, and the Hurricanes are excellent in ball security with a 16.8% turnover rate. The Hurricanes are grabbing more than 33% of available offensive rebounds, and Miami can play freely against a Duke team that is well below-average in creating havoc in the form of turnovers and steals on defense.

Why Duke can cover 

Duke has immense talent, including freshman big man Kyle Filipowski. He is averaging 14.9 points and 9.2 rebounds per game, leading the team in both categories, and Duke is unquestionably elite on the offensive glass. Duke has a 38.8% offensive rebound rate, leading to immense second-chance opportunities, and the Blue Devils are shooting 78.4% from the free throw line while creating an above-average volume of attempts. Miami struggles to a 67.5% defensive rebound rate, creating an even clearer path for Duke’s offensive rebounding prowess. 

On defense, Duke is holding opponents to 28.4% shooting from 3-point range, and the Blue Devils are in the top 30 nationally in free throw rate allowed. Duke is blocking 11.6% of shots and securing 74% of available defensive rebounds. Miami is below-average in free throw rate on offense, and the Hurricanes have an ugly 16.3% turnover rate in conference play, ranking No. 11 in ACC play.

How to make Miami vs. Duke picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Under on the total, projecting 147 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. You can only get the model’s pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Duke vs. Miami? And which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that has seen profitable returns on its college basketball picks this season, and find out.