Miami Dolphins-New England Complete Week 17 Preview and Prediction
The Miami Dolphins will look to end their four-game losing streak and move to 9-7 on the season when they face the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium on Sunday.
Here’s all the pertinent info for this Week 17 Dolphins-Patriots matchup:
MIAMI DOLPHINS (8-7) vs. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (7-8)
DATE: Sunday, Jan. 1, 2023
TIME: 1 p.m. ET
SITE: Gillette Stadium; Foxborough, Mass.
WEATHER FORECAST: The temperature between 1 and 4 p.m. ET around Gillette Stadium will be between 52 and 54 degrees, according to AccuWeather.com, with mostly cloudy skies and a 20 percent chance of precipitation. The wind is expected to be 17-20 mph with gusts up to 37 mph.
TV: CBS
Announcers: Ian Eagle (play-by-play), Charles Davis (color analyst), Evan Washburn (sidelines)
STREAMING: fuboTV (start your free trial)
SI Sportsbook betting line: Patriots by 2.5 (over/under 41.5)
Final Injury Report:
Dolphins — QB Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) is out; T Eric Fisher (calf) is doubtful; T Terron Armstead (toe/pec/knee/hip), CB Xavien Howard (knee), LB Bradley Chubb (ankle/hand), WR River Cracraft (calf), FB Alec Ingold (thumb) and T Greg Little (foot) are questionable.
Patriots — CB Jack Jones (knee), DB Marcus Jones (concussion), WR DeVante Parker (concussion) and TE Jonnu Smith (concussion) are out; TE Hunter Henry (knee), CB Jonathan Jones (chest), CB Jalen Mills (groin), RB Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle) and WR Tyquan Thornton (knee) are questionable.
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FOR EVEN MORE COVERAGE ON THE MIAMI DOLPHINS, CHECK OUT SPORTS ILLUSTRATED’S MIAMI DOLPHINS PAGE ON SI.COM
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Regular season series history: The Dolphins lead 59-52
Last five meetings:
Sept. 11, 2022 at Miami — Dolphins 20, Patriots 7
Jan. 9, 2022 at Miami — Dolphins 33, Patriots 24
Sept. 12, 2021 at New England — Dolphins 17, Patriots 17
Dec. 20, 2020 at Miami — Dolphins 22, Patriots 12
Sept. 13, 2020 at New England — Patriots 21, Dolphins 11
Dolphins’ largest margin of victory: 52 (1972 at Miami; Dolphins 52, Patriots 0)
Dolphins’ largest margin of defeat: 43 (2019 at Miami; Patriots 43, Dolphins 0)
Highest-scoring matchup: 77 points (2007 at Miami; Patriots 49, Dolphins 28)
Lowest-scoring matchup: 3 points (1982 at New England; Patriots 3, Dolphins 0)
Former Patriots players with the Dolphins:
LB Trey Flowers (20150-18), S Eric Rowe (2016-18), LB Elandon Roberts (2016-19), DB Keion Crossen (2018), CB Justin Bethel (2019-21), wide receivers coach Wes Welker (2007-12), safeties coach Steve Gregory (2012-13)
Former Patriots coaches with the Dolphins:
Defensive coordinator Josh Boyer
Former Dolphins players with the Patriots:
WR DeVante Parker, LB Raekwon McMillan, DT Davon Godchaux, P Michael Palardy, WR Lynn Bowden Jr. (practice squad)
Former Dolphins coaches with the Patriots:
None
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PATRIOTS SCOUTING REPORT
Losers of four of their last five, the Patriots find themselves staring at the possibility of missing the playoffs for the second time in three seasons unless they can defeat the Dolphins on Sunday and win at Buffalo in Week 18. Their fate shows how small the margin between winning and losing is in the NFL because their last two losses, at Las Vegas and at home against Cincinnati, each came down to the wire and they were on the wrong end of two questionable officiating calls. But that’s the kind of margin New England has operated with all season, with a lackluster passing game mostly to blame. The defense has had stretches of really good football, but it’s also lacked consistency. Matthew Judon is among the NFL leaders in sacks with 15.5 and Josh Uche also is in double digits with 11.5.
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THE BIGGEST REASON THE DOLPHINS WILL WIN …
The defense is the biggest reason the Dolphins won the first meeting at Hard Rock Stadium in the season opener and this would be the perfect time for a signature performance on the road. New England ranks 24th in the NFL in total offense, 26th on third down and dead last in the red zone. This is a spot where Josh Boyer’s group has to step up. New England also has major injury issues at cornerback, but the weather forecast (wind specifically) doesn’t sound conducive to putting up big numbers in the passing game. The Dolphins have injury concerns of their own along the offensive line, which isn’t great news against a team with two front-line pass rushers like Judon and Uche.
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THE BIGGEST REASON THE DOLPHINS WILL LOSE …
The Dolphins have been very good against the run this season — outside of the occasional long-distance play, usually by an opposing quarterback — but they’ll need to be on their game again here against the Rhamondre Stevenson-Damien Harris combination. Cornerback Xavien Howard’s knee injury also could become a problem, even if Mac Jones isn’t necessarily a prolific passer. The expected high winds also could cause issues and create some turnovers, and losing the tunover battle is one way to lose at Gillette Stadium.
FINAL DOLPHINS-PATRIOTS PREDICTION
The Dolphins have won four in a row against New England and, as we chronicled Friday, they’ve done it with a combination of a strong running game and creating turnovers on defense. Even with Tua Tagovailoa out of the lineup because of his concussion, the Dolphins still have the edge at quarterback with Teddy Bridgewater and just have a better team overall. That said, this is a team that seemed to have some mojo earlier in the season and that mojo has disappeared. during the course of the four-game losing streak. The projected heavy winds clearly will favor New England, whose passing game isn’t nearly as dynamic, but the Dolphins still should be able to grind out a victory regardless, though this has the potential of turning into an ugly game. The Dolphins will clinch a playoff berth with a victory combined with a Jets loss at Seattle later Sunday, and it says here the Dolphins will do their part. Dolphins 19, Patriots 17
