Final NFL Week 15 Observations … With Miami Dolphins Angles
Week 15 of the 2022 NFL season began with the San Francisco 49ers clinching the NFC West title by handling Seattle and ended with the upcoming Miami Dolphins opponent Green Bay Packers taking care of the Los Angeles Rams to keep their playoff hopes alive heading to Hard Rock Stadium on Christmas Day.
The Packers now are 6-8, 1.5 games behind the Washington Commanders for seventh place in the NFC standings. It’s a strange position to be in for the Packers, who won 13 regular season each of the past three seasons.
While the outcome never really seemed in doubt Monday night, the Packers’ 24-12 victory still showed some of the flaws that have put them basically needing to run the table to have any kind of chance of making the playoffs — such as Aaron Rodgers’ first-half interception and an Aaron Jones fumble.
Green Bay did thoroughly dominate, outgaining the Rams 345-156, and the final margin would have been larger had the Packers not kneeled after getting a first-and-goal at the 1-yard line shortly after the two-minute warning.
The Packers’ playoff chances, according fivethirtyeight.com, currently stand at 8 percent but would go up to 68 percent with season-ending victories against the Dolphins, Vikings (at home) and Lions (at home). Any loss would leave the Packers with a playoff chance no greater than 4 percent.
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FOR EVEN MORE COVERAGE ON THE MIAMI DOLPHINS, CHECK OUT SPORTS ILLUSTRATED’S MIAMI DOLPHINS PAGE ON SI.COM
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THE NEW ENGLAND NIGHTMARE
Two days after the fact, it’s still difficult to believe how the New England Patriots lost that game against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium after maybe the biggest brain fart in NFL history.
For those old enough to remember, the only thing we can come up that compared was the “Miracle at the Meadowlands,” not because of the botched handoff between Joe Pisarcik to Larry Csonka — yes, Dolphins Hall of Famer Larry Csonka — led to Herman Edwards’ improbable touchdown, but because all the Giants had to do to end the game was kneel down.
Bill Belichick made an interesting comment after the game regarding that final play as to the decision to run a draw from the Patriots 45-yard line with 3 seconds left in a tie game as opposed to having Mac Jones fling a Hail Mary, saying he couldn’t throw it far enough.
Really? Can’t throw the ball 55 or 60 yards? Yeesh!
If that’s the case, then why the Patriots didn’t just kneel to go to overtime always will be baffling.
Then again, one could argue the Patriots should have had the game won before that, if not for — yet another — instant replay failure. In this case, it wasn’t so much that the ruling of a Raiders touchdown was upheld, but the NFL Senior Vice President of Officiating Walt Anderson indicated through a pool report that there was no shot of the play from a sideline view, which would have provided a clear picture of whether Keelan Cole’s foot landing on the white surrounding the end zone.
In any event, the dramatic loss badly damaged the Patriots’ playoff loss and overshadowed what was a very good defensive performance, highlighted by safety Kyle Dugger reading Derek Carr so clearly at the line that he jumped a quick throw at the line for Davante Adams for a pick-six.
New England’s playoff chances now stand at 19 percent, per fivethirtyeight.com, though the Patriots will make the playoffs by winning their final three games — easier said than done when that schedule is at Cincinnati, home against the Dolphins, at Buffalo.
The Patriots still have a decent chance of making the playoffs by going 2-1 in their final three, but if that one loss is against Miami, their percentage under that scenario would be only 20 percent — as opposed to 61 percent if the loss is against the Bengals and 46 percent if the loss is against Buffalo.
JETS RUNNING OUT OF TIME
The New York Jets’ playoff chances after their difficult 20-17 loss against the Lions is about the same as New England’s (20 percent), and what stuck out from their loss was the atrocious clock management at the end of the game.
By neglecting to call timeouts after completions of 22 and 10 yards on the final drive, the Jets wasted at least 20 seconds and ended up with still one timeout left when Greg Zuerlein was forced to try a 58-yard field goal attempt to send the game to overtime.
Another play or two would have given the Jets the opportunity to make the field goal attempt a lot more manageable.
While his final stats might have overstated his performance, Zach Wilson deserves a lot of credit for some plays he made on that final drive, namely that 22-yard completion to Garrett Wilson and a 20-yard completion to Elijah Moore on fourth-and-18 on the last play before the field goal attempt.
Wilson ended up passing for 317 yards, though it was pretty clear the Jets weren’t as efficient offensively as they were with Mike White at quarterback.
The Jets might or might not have White back for their crucial Thursday night home game against the surging Jacksonville Jaguars, which will be followed by road games against Seattle and the Dolphins.
The Jets aren’t guaranteed of making the playoffs by going 3-0 down the stretch, though they likely would get in. And, like the Patriots, their chances of getting into the playoffs with two wins in their final three games are much better if that one loss isn’t against the Dolphins.
QUICK HITTERS
— The flip side of that Jets game involved the Detroit Lions, and former Dolphins interim head coach Dan Campbell, move closer to a playoff position. Detroit now stands a half-game behind Washington for the seventh and final playoff position in the NFC. Not hearing those questions anymore about whether he can coach, though some of the in-game decisions still are questionable.
— After controlling the Dolphins offense while severely short-handed, the Chargers defense had another good outing against Tennessee in L.A.’s 17-14 victory. And for all the flak that Brandon Staley has gotten for his in-game decisions, he deserves props for calling timeouts before the Titans scored the game-tying touchdowns because that allowed Justin Herbert to get the Chargers in field goal position in the final 43 seconds. And, since it’s been discussed on social media, don’t fixate so much on the fact that Herbert didn’t throw a touchdown pass because A) the Chargers’ two touchdowns came on short runs; B) he again was pressured most of the game; C) he came up with the clutch drive, highlighted by his laser down the field for Mike Williams.
— As we did last week, we close with the team that would be the Dolphins’ first-round playoff opponent if the regular season ended today, and that’s the Kansas City Chiefs. While it’s boring that the same team keeps winning the AFC West, hats off to the Chiefs. And the biggest takeaway from their overtime victory at Houston is that while Patrick Mahomes is the headliner and MVP candidate, they have two disruptive players on their defensive line who can make a difference in any game, Chris Jones and Frank Clark. Against the upset-minded Texans, it was Clark who stripped QB Davis Mills from behind in overtime to set up the game-winning touchdown.
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