Miami Dolphins-Buffalo Bills Complete Week 15 Preview and Prediction
The Miami Dolphins will look to improve to 9-5 on the season when they face the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium on Saturday night.
Here’s all the pertinent info, along with a final score prediction, for this Week 15 Dolphins-Bills matchup:
MIAMI DOLPHINS (8-5) vs. BUFFALO BILLS (10-3)
DATE: Saturday, Dec. 17
TIME: 8:15 p.m. ET
SITE: Highmark Stadium; Orchard Park, N.Y.
WEATHER FORECAST: This is a very fluid situation, but as of 9:30 a.m. the AccuWheater forecast called for temperatures in Orchard Park of 30 degrees between the hours of 8 and 11 p.m. ET, with a “real feel” between 18 and 21 degrees. The forecast called for cloudy skies in the 8 and 9 p.m. hours and flurries in the 10 p.m. hour, but with a lake snow effect warning throughout. The wind is expected to be between 9-12 mph with gusts up to 21 mph. The National Weather Service forecast for Ochard Park for Saturday night calls for snow — “The snow could have heavy at times. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.”
TV: NFL Network
Announcers: Kevin Kugler (play-by-play), Mark Sanchez (color analyst), Laura Okmin (sideline), Peter Schrager (sideline)
STREAMING: fuboTV (start your free trial)
SI Sportsbook betting line: Bills by 8.5 (over/under 44.5)
Final Injury Report:
Dolphins — DB Elijah Campbell (concussion) and S Eric Rowe (hamstring) are out; WR River Cracraft (quad) is doubtful; T Terron Armstead (toe/pec/knee), QB Teddy Bridgewater (knee) and RB Jeff Wilson (hip) are questionable.
Bills — G Ryan Bates (ankle) and DT Jordan Phillips (shoulder) are out.
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FOR EVEN MORE COVERAGE ON THE MIAMI DOLPHINS, CHECK OUT SPORTS ILLUSTRATED’S MIAMI DOLPHINS PAGE ON SI.COM
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Regular season series history: The Dolphins lead 61-50-1
Last five meetings:
Sept. 25, 2022 at Miami — Dolphins 21, Bills 19
Oct. 31, 2021 at Buffalo — Bills 26, Dolphins 11
Sept. 19, 2021 at Miami — Bills 35, Dolphins 0
Jan. 3, 2021 at Buffalo — Bills 56, Dolphins 26
Sept. 20, 2020 at Miami — Bills 31, Dolphins 28
Dolphins’ largest margin of victory: 38 (1970 at Miami; Dolphins 45, Bills 7)
Dolphins’ largest margin of defeat: 35 (2021 at Miami; Bills 35, Dolphins 0)
Highest-scoring matchup: 82 points (1966 at Buffalo; Bills 58, Dolphins 24 … 2020 season at Buffalo; Bills 56, Dolphins 26)
Lowest-scoring matchup: 12 points (1983 at Buffalo; Dolphins 12, Bills 0)
Former Bills players with the Dolphins:
DT Justin Zimmer
Former Bills coaches with the Dolphins:
Special teams coordinator Danny Crossman, associate head coach/running backs coach Eric Studesville
Former Dolphins players with the Bills:
RB Duke Johnson (on practice squad), DE Shaq Lawson, DT Jordan Phillips
Former Dolphins coaches with the Bills:
None
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BILLS SCOUTING REPORT
The Bills entered the 2022 season with as the consensus favorite to end up winning the Super Bowl and they find themselves atop the AFC standings through Week 14, even if their season hasn’t gone without its hiccups. The Bills lived up early to their reputation of having problems winning close games, one example being the Dolphins’ two-point win in Week 3, but their current four-game winning streak includes three wins by one score or less. Josh Allen again has been the catalyst for the Bills, even though his season has been marked by some costly red zone turnovers and an elbow injury that limited him to some degree. Buffalo lost defensive standouts Von Miller and Micah Hyde to season-ending injuries, but that unit remains one of the best in the NFL.
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THE BIGGEST REASON THE DOLPHINS WILL WIN …
Maybe the biggest reason for optimism for the Dolphins heading into the game at Highmark Stadium is that they already defeated the Bills this season. While one of the biggest highlight of that Sept. 25 game was Tua Tagovailoa’s clutch bomb to Jaylen Waddle on a third-and-22, it was the defense that really won this game. Despite giving up almost 500 yards of total offense, the defense did a good job of keeping Buffalo out of the end zone and set up a touchdown with Jevon Holland’s strip-sack that Melvin Ingram recovered at the Bills 6-yard line. The Dolphins formula this season has revolved around the passing game, but it struggled the past two games and a return to form obviously would help. But given the Buffalo defense and the anticipated weather conditions, it’s probably not logical to think the passing game will be the difference-maker in this game. Rather, it figured to be up to the defense to make the biggest impact here, particularly by forcing turnovers.
THE BIGGEST REASON THE DOLPHINS WILL LOSE …
Given the rather large point spread, it’s pretty clear that oddsmakers believe Buffalo clearly is a better team and the Dolphins’ performance of the past two weeks makes it hard to argue that point. In terms of specifics, Buffalo clearly has an edge when it comes to defense and it’s probably easier to envision the Bills shutting down the Miami offense than vice versa. The Bills also will have a distinct advantage if the weather conditions become difficult because they have so much more experience at playing in the cold/wind/snow — particularly at the quarterback position.
FINAL DOLPHINS-BILLS PREDICTION
This game wraps up the three-game road trip (gauntlet) the Dolphins faced and a victory here would (at least should) be enough to offset the disappointing performances against the 49ers and the Chargers. The Dolphins already scored a monumental victory against the Bills this season, though circumstances were very favorable, among them the intense heat (and huge home-field advantage) and a rash of Buffalo injuries at the time. The situation is reversed here because it’s the Bills who have the advantageous circumstances, including home-field advantage and the weather conditions, the Dolphins playing on a short week at the end of a three-game road trip, and a better injury situation. Pulling off a sweep of this Bills team never would be easy under any circumstances, but it’s going to be especially challenging here. In predicting the outcome, the big problem for the Dolphins is that Buffalo has demonstrated many more ways it can win this season than Miami, which has relied so heavily on the passing game. We’d expect the Dolphins to make adjustments on offense and utilize the run and short passing game more than the past two weeks, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s going to be successful. As mentioned earlier, the best chance at pulling off the upset here would be for the defense to come up with some key takeaways. The problem is that it’s really tough to depend on those. Bills 22, Dolphins 16.
