MLS Decision Day in review, playoff predictions and what’s next for Caleb Porter
After Decision Day finalized what was already a fairly sorted playoff picture, we’re finally ready for MLS’ main event. While half of the league’s teams are now in offseason mode, the other 14 have set their sights on the Philip F. Anschutz Trophy.
There’s a good chance that we’ll get a first-time MLS Cup champion, as only three of the 14 qualifiers have won in the past (New York City FC in 2021, Real Salt Lake in 2009 and the LA Galaxy five times over). In a novel concept which hasn’t been attempted in past years, our own Jeff Rueter and Pablo Maurer go back and forth to reflect on the regular season finale ahead of the postseason beginning this weekend.
A relatively tame Decision Day
Pablo: Jeff, there was a miracle at Audi Field on Sunday afternoon. No, the stadium’s roof wasn’t magically completed. No, D.C. United did not look competitive and/or win a soccer game, something they’ve done sparingly in 2022. On Sunday, FC Cincinnati — a club whose fans have openly hated me for their entire MLS existence — qualified for the MLS Cup playoffs. They did so in style, thrashing lowly United 5-2.
Jeff: I admire a team that looks to clinch its first playoff berth with panache. Brenner (we hardly know her) added his third hat-trick of the season to cap a truly wild goal scoring campaign. He didn’t score a goal until June 24, failing to connect in his first dozen appearances of the year. After bagging five goals in the next three, he was held scoreless for another four starts. Then it was four goals in three, then another four game rut. He alternates the form of a striker who can star for FC Barcelona in Spain….
Pablo: Wait, didn’t they make an offer for him?
Jeff: …with that of a rotational figure for Barcelona SC in Ecuador. He’s a worthy foil for Brandon Vazquez, who had a goal and a trio of assists, and Luciano Acosta, who scored the other goal and added an assist. Are you sure D.C. even took the field yesterday?
Pablo: You know, I’ve seen enough misery out of FC Cincinnati. Getting called an idiot by their fans on Twitter got old after three years, frankly. The animosity between Cincinnati’s fan base and I started when I expressed concern over the club’s use of a religious symbol in their crest, escalated when Jeff Berding massacred Johnny Cash at the club’s Christmas party and peaked, probably, when the club’s owner, Carl Lindner III, said he thought that “God’s hands are on what’s going on here.” He called what was then a third-division soccer team “God’s perfect timing.”
Reader, the average American sports fan cannot even be bothered to watch Major League
Soccer. I am fairly certain that God is not up there with his hands all over FC Cincinnati.
But who knows. Maybe the man (woman? Toaster oven?) upstairs got bored this year and assembled the holy trinity of Brenner, Acosta and Vasquez. If so, well done, almighty creator. Cincy has gone for broke every game and has been legitimately watchable in 2022. Best of luck in the playoffs. Your chili still sucks.
Jeff: Maybe the cruelest twist of irony in the Cincy story had nothing to do with their 2022 side at all. Down in Orlando, their cross-state rival Columbus Crew was fending for its postseason life. For a team that got its verve from 2020 MLS Cup MVP Lucas Zelarayán and former Watford striker Cucho Hernández, the only goal to arrive with the season on the line came from… Derrick Etienne, who joined Columbus ahead of 2020 after spending 2019 on loan with Cincinnati. Even the best parts of the Crew this year were just Cincinnati-adjacent. More on Columbus in a later section.
Pablo: Jeff, I love a good MLS player social media meltdown. Teams and leagues do their best to train the pettiness out of their players, but every once in a while a player still loses his cool and starts smashing the favorite button on a bunch of spicy tweets — or even crafts his own social media post, taking aim at his coach or club at large. On Sunday, after Portland Timbers midfielder Eryk Williamson was somewhat mysteriously left out of the club’s starting XI, Williamson did both of those things.
Eryk Williamson posted on his Instagram story but quickly deleted it. And his most recent “like” on Twitter is… interesting. #RCTID pic.twitter.com/rhIEoyvPc7
— Ryan Clarke (@RyanTClarke) October 10, 2022
Jeff: Portland certainly “found out,” as their 3-1 loss to Real Salt Lake at Providence Park cost them a playoff spot. The only thing missing from Williamson’s post was a sample of the “look at this graph” Vine to accompany the short-lived post. It’s hard to comprehend the logic behind Gio Savarese’s decision, as he chalked up Williamson’s “DNP” as a coach’s decision due to some vague rationale about not training at 100% intensity during the week before the match.
Not a game, not a game. Gio’s talking about practice, man. And now, neither Williamson nor the rest of his teammates will have to worry about training intensity for a few months. It’s a bit of an obvious stat since 2022 is the first time since the Seattle Sounders’ MLS launch that they have missed the playoffs, but the RSL defeat also made this the first time that Cascadia has failed to send a team to the postseason since Seattle’s debut in 2009. Even after all of California and Texas missed out in 2021, this feels especially peculiar.
Broadcast teams
Pablo: The biggest offseason talking point, league-wide, is sure to be MLS’ media rights deal with Apple TV, which is set to debut in February. On Sunday, fans in a slew of MLS markets used their team’s final match of the season as a chance to pay tribute to some long-time broadcast personalities. The league is currently assembling two dozen or so commentary teams to handle English and Spanish-language broadcasts on Apple. The deal has its share of positives, of course — MLS is making a ton of money here — but one of its primary drawbacks is the loss of local flavor.
JP Dellacamera, on the occasion of his last game as the local broadcaster, receives a standing ovation and bangs the pregame drum. pic.twitter.com/FOJ6MYQQg0
— Philly Soccer Page (@phillysoccerpg) October 9, 2022
Across the league, long-time play-by-play personalities bid an emotional farewell to the audiences they’ve served for decades. In D.C., Dave Johnson signed off after 27 years in the booth. In Philly, JP Dellacamera, the closest thing American soccer has to a broadcast godfather, said goodbye to his own audience. Brian Dunseth in Salt Lake… Joe Tutino in Los Angeles. The list goes on and on.
Some of those personalities will return to call games on Apple TV, but many of them won’t. Whoever does won’t be tethered to their long-time clubs, instead calling random games in random markets.
Jeff: The crossover joke of “Arlo White calls AFC Richmond and the Chicago Fire alike” hits differently after his LIV Golf heel turn. I’m sure there will still be some integration with Apple — hoping that they can get players to wiggle through their goal celebrations like they’re starring in an iPod commercial. But it does feel like we’re at the end of one era of MLS and heading into another: a turn away from the hyper-local focus of the league’s former target demographic of suburban soccer families and a pivot toward that sweet streaming action.
Pablo: Think about this, Jeff: You were less than a year old the first time Dave Johnson shrieked out “IT’S IN THE NET! IT’S… IN THE NET!”
Jeff: Funny, that’s exactly what the doctor shrieked as I entered this world.
Caleb Porter loses his house
Pablo: Late-breaking news here — Caleb Porter is out at Columbus. Much like the Crew did on the field this year, Columbus waited until the very last minute to let things go. Porter did his best to try to save his job, telling reporters Sunday night that the Crew’s failure to qualify for the playoffs was at least in part on him and saying that there were “futures up in the air, probably myself included, who knows, I have no idea where (my job status is) at.” He didn’t have to wait long to find out.
— MLS Images That Preceded Unfortunate Events (@ImagesMls) October 9, 2022
Jeff: Decision Day is a great occasion for many around MLS, but the fine operator(s) of the MLS Images That Preceded Unfortunate Events account has a heyday. It’s prime, distilled, invaluable content — so many rakes that were innocuously dropped across the U.S. and Canada just begging to be stepped on.
Columbus, in what became a dependable font of schadenfreude, was the main character of that Twitter account on Decision Day. This is a team which is still less than 24 months removed from winning MLS Cup. Instead of bouncing back from a disappointing 2021, they’ve celebrated the two-year milestone by dropping 24 points from winning positions. If they’d secured even half of those, they’d be hosting a game in the first round and possibly the second. Instead, they’re left to assemble a slew of “Darlington Nagbe every touch” compilations to pass the time.
Pablo: So where does Porter head next? He’s had his share of highlights — the MLS Cups, the college title — but he may be seen as damaged goods after being fired in Columbus. I’ve only ever been fired once. My freshman year of college I scored a temp gig at the airport in Memphis, helping to load cargo planes. During some down time I spotted an unoccupied airport baggage truck — the kind with the conveyor belt — and decided to joyride it. Jeff, I backed it directly into a small aircraft. I was fired on the spot. Side note, I didn’t even have a driver’s license at the time. In any case, the Columbus Crew have been cursed since they changed the logo again. End of story. Bring the construction crew back.
Jeff: It’s a little hard to say where his next move could be. Three years ago, he seemed destined to be the Galaxy’s second coming of Bruce Arena. After achieving all of the disgruntled fallout of his Portland tenure without all of the lovable joy of the ascent up the ranks (and LA’s fine turnaround under Greg Vanney), that seems out of the running.
I saw someone on Twitter tell our own Paul Tenorio that Porter should take over for Gregg Berhalter after the World Cup. At the risk of creating a job pathway where leading the Crew is a direct prerequisite for coaching the United States, I’d imagine someone else will get that look. You know where Porter would make sense, though? Vegas. We all know they’re gonna be franchise 30. Between the Raiders and Golden Knights, it’s safe to assume that they’ll lean toward playing in black. Caleb Porter, in a Diego Simeone-esque all-black suit week after week? Sign me up.
Pablo: There’s only one choice for Las Vegas’ MLS franchise, and it’s El Chelis. End of story. Smoke ‘em if you got ‘em.
A few predictions
Pablo: Are we doing BAM!, our weekly betting column, again?
Jeff: On the advice of our new bosses, I am going to politely remind you that BAM! was a fever dream and would never, ever happen at a The New York Times entity.
Pablo: OK then, let’s make some MLS playoff predictions. We can hope that someday Josh Wolff or some other MLS figure will hold these up on a piece of paper while angrily shouting something about how the “mainstream media doesn’t believe in us” or something. Pull up a chair, young Jeff. Let’s pour a tall glass of NyQuil and look into our hazy red orb of projection.
Jeff: Let’s start in the East, where we’ve got the Montreal Foot Club hosting Orlando City in a 2-7 split. Orlando got in on the final day by perfectly executing their gameplan: let Columbus carry a lead into halftime, then enjoy the spoils of their meltdown. It doesn’t take a well-placed informant to see that through. That said: it’s Montreal’s to lose under my vote for MLS coach of the year, Wilfried Nancy.
Pablo: No team in MLS has been more slept on than Montreal, which is a hilarious thing to say about a team that nearly won the conference. But Canada is barely a real place, and some of us can barely be bothered to pay attention to any MLS at all. Montreal will feed Orlando into the shredder here, I’m with you. And yes, what a year it’s been for coach of the year Phil Neville Wifried Nancy.
Coach of the year Phil Neville. Hilarious. I’m sorry, I’m just still reeling from the widespread coverage of Neville’s “masterclass” in coming back from having too many designated players.
Jeff: There are usually two schools of thought for any league’s coach of the year honor. The first rewards, y’know, the best coach of the year — the one whose team looked fine-tuned and clinical throughout the season. The other is something of a “wow your team overperformed” admittance, which often hinges on a team officially making the playoffs.
Not sure I heard much of a “Neville for COTY” argument before Miami clinched the playoffs. That’s all I’m going to say.
Pablo: Phil Neville aside, we move on. The New York Red Bulls take on Cincinnati at the eye-wateringly-early start time of 12 p.m. ET on Saturday. Cincy, who scored more goals than anyone else in the East (aside from Philly, who were all hopped up on Mountain Dew Code Red or something the entire year) and the Red Bulls, one of the league’s soundest defensive sides. This one is a bit of a crapshoot. I’ll just pick Cincinnati to keep from getting yelled at on Twitter.
Jeff: I like the Red Bulls this year, which I’m sure their fans won’t love to read. For a while, it felt like the club was churning its wheels, especially after Jesse Marsch made his move abroad. Since Thierry Henry retired after 2014, the plan has been to build around capable league veterans, giving academy graduates a chance to develop and, hopefully, net a transfer fee.
A funny thing happens when you keep giving academy kids playing time: over time, you have more players who grew up supporting the club and are especially invested in bringing that club its first MLS Cup title. From Daniel Edelman growing into the club’s latest game-breaking No. 6 to John Tolkin becoming the American Marcelo, this year’s team hits different in the best way. I think this is the best matchup of the Eastern trio, but I’ll give the New Jersey side a host’s edge in this one.
Pablo: NYCFC face Miami at Red Bull Arena, their home away from home. Here’s a lukewarm take: NYCFC games at RBA have maybe the worst atmosphere in the league. People have rightfully skewered the club for playing their home games in a baseball stadium, but Yankee Stadium provides an unmistakable home-field advantage. That simply doesn’t exist at Red Bull Arena. City is the odds-on favorite here, but I’m going to say that Miami, who only recently recovered from spending too much money on too many players, are going to pull out the upset here. We don’t have any subscribers in Miami, right?
Jeff: I bet that Pitbull is an avid reader of The Athletic’s Manny Navarro. I’m joining you in picking New Jersey City to advance to the next round, but I do think there’s a not insignificant chance that they slip, as they’ve struggled to resemble last year’s title-winning form since Ronny Deila got head-hunted by Standard Liège.
Onto the West.
Pablo: Nashville over the LA Galaxy. Hany Mukhtar has been an unstoppable force and has the distinction of being the only one of our preseason picks that I actually managed to get right. Oh well.
Jeff: Think you’re right. If there was ever a year for a co-MVP (and to be clear, there is never a year to get that cute), it would be 2022. Mukhtar has been so good that — and this is true — the club sent a working vinyl record to some media members, like you and me, which plays all of his goal calls through the last week of September. They literally pressed his quality onto wax. Your move, Austin. I bet Sebastian Driussi has plenty of projector reels in his locker.
As part of our USMNT coverage, I’m a little worried about how much shakier Walker Zimmerman has looked in 2022 than the past two years — but not worried enough to think he won’t be up to mark Chicharito in the playoffs.
Pablo: FC Dallas meets Minnesota United FC in what I’m told is a playoff soccer game. Jeff?
Jeff: Nailed the Perd Hapley impression, buddy. These teams feasted on spoiling the others’ fun at home, with Dallas winning in Saint Paul on September 3. Conversely, the Loons notched a 2-1 win in Frisco back in late May, riding goals from Robin Lod and The Athletic USL watchlist alumni D.J. Taylor.
Pablo: We have one of those?
Jeff: I feel like a man who slaved away at making you fresh loaves of bread for years, only to find you’d handed them all to gutter rats.
Minnesota has struggled since losing Bakaye Dibassy for the year in early September. Their Decision Day win over Vancouver snapped a stretch where the team got one point from six games. Dallas did just enough to fend off Kansas City, cementing their place as the West’s third seed. If Michael Boxall and Brent Kallman are able to keep up with Jesús Ferreira’s movement in the final third, the Loons could play spoilers again. If not, it’s easy to see a vibrant Dallas attack finding the back of the net a few times.
I’ll take Minnesota in this one, but only just.
Pablo: Austin meets RSL in a game Austin should win. Despite their defensive shortcomings, they have the league’s second-best player in Sebastian Driussi, and they have a reliable game-changer in Brad Stuver. What they don’t have is form. They barely managed a 1-1 result against Colorado on Sunday and lost four of their last eight games. Historically, limping into the playoffs doesn’t work out well in MLS. RSL, though, has been similarly disappointing, struggling with their own late-season malaise. Austin has the edge here, in my view.
Jeff: David Ochoa may be in the nation’s capital after being involved in a reverse Freddy Adu trade, but this is still Real Salt Lake. RSL, led by Pablo Mastroeni. RSL, which Pablo Mastroeni led to an upset of the Seattle Sounders without his team taking a single shot. If any team is going to dig deep in their bag of shenanigans to pull off an upset, it may as well be the Claret and Cobalt.
However, I will still join you in picking Austin. They matched up well with the West’s other heavyweights (2-0-0 against LAFC this year). While they split the season series with RSL, they notched a decisive 3-0 win at home a few weeks ago. It’s only their second year, but they’ll like their chances to recreate Atlanta United’s storied 2018 form and challenge for MLS Cup in their second season.
Nothing like the MLS Cup Playoffs, no matter who sponsors it these days. Glad we’re finally on to the year’s preeminent men’s soccer event taking place this year.
(Photo: Mike Watters-USA TODAY Sports)
