FIVE TAKES: Will numerous injuries impact Bills‘ attempt to slow Miami’s potent passing attack? Can Dolphins beat ‘big brother’ Buffalo? | Sports

“I’m excited to go play these guys. They’re on fire right now,“ said Von Miller, one of the leaders of the Bills’ league-leading defense. “I watched the Ravens game the other day, and the way they came back. And the plays that they made, and the energy that they had on the sideline, and watching this defense go out there and do stuff against the Baltimore Ravens. They have a really, really good team.”

Miami stunned the Ravens, 42-38, behind an incredible come-from-behind effort from the Miami passing game. Tua Tagovailoa’s six touchdown passes powered the victory, as despite trailing by 21 points with :26 remaining in the third quarter, the Dolphins’ polarizing quarterback found the end zone four times during the final frame to help his team steal the conference win. Tagovailoa finished 36-of-50 passing for 469 yards and the six scores, two of which went to wide receiver Tyreek Hill, who recorded 11 receptions for 190 yards. Fellow Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle also hauled in 11 receptions to aid the winning effort totaling 171 receiving yards and a couple of scores.

The Bills rolled over last year’s AFC No. 1 seed, the Tennessee Titans (0-2), 41-7, in Week 2 to earn their second consecutive dominant victory to open the season. Through two weeks, Buffalo has outscored its opponents 72-17, including a 31-10 Week 1 win over the defending Super Bowl Champion Los Angeles Rams. However, as impressive as Buffalo’s victories have been, each has come at a cost, as the Bills have suffered injuries to several players through Week 2 and will enter this week’s matchup without the services of several significant contributors.

“Guys are obviously getting back to health, so it is what it is,“ said Josh Allen, who has completed over 75% of his passes for 614 yards and seven touchdown passes through two weeks. “We’re going to have to have guys step up and play next man up football. That’s the nature of this business and we trust the guys in this building.”

The dominance exhibited by the Bills over the past two weeks is all too familiar for Dolphins fans. Since Sean McDermott took over as head coach before the start of the 2017 season, the Bills have gone 9-1 in 10 games against the Dolphins while outscoring their AFC East foe by a combined 321-176 score during those meetings. We’ll see if that dominance continues on Sunday or if Miami can keep things rolling and earn a leg up in the divisional race. Here are my Five Takes on what many view as the most intriguing matchup of this week’s NFL slate, which the Bills enter as a 5.5-point road favorite, according to BetMGM.com.

Micah Hyde (neck), Dane Jackson (neck), Jordan Phillips (hamstring) and Ed Oliver (ankle) were all ruled out for Sunday’s game, while five other Bills players were marked as questionable, including Jordan Poyer (foot), Gabe Davis (ankle), Dawson Knox (foot), Mitch Morse (elbow) and Tim Settle (calf). All five players marked as questionable participated in practice, albeit in a limited fashion, at various points, for some the entirety of the practice slate, throughout the week.

On Saturday, Hyde’s agent, Jack Bechta, revealed in a Tweet that Hyde will be out for the season.

The most significant of those players marked questionable would have to be Poyer, who would be the third starting member of the Bills’ secondary to miss the game if he is unable to suit up on Sunday. That would leave rookie cornerbacks Christian Benford and Kaiir Elam, both already expected to start with the absence of Jackson, and both neophyte safeties Jaquan Johnson and Damar Hamlin, Johnson already expected to start in Hyde’s absence, to roam the Bills’ secondary. That’s an unfavorable proposition for a team set to go up against one of the hottest aerial attacks in the league.

Settle’s status is also of concern, considering the losses of Oliver and Phillips for this week. If Settle can’t go, the Bills would be severely depleted on the interior defensive line.

Davis said earlier in the week that he was “100%” optimistic about playing against Miami. The Bills did just fine without him in Week 2, and of those listed as questionable, Buffalo’s No. 2 wide receiver is amongst those that Buffalo perhaps could afford to be without this week. Knox and Morse should both be expected to play as they were on the practice field, enduring plenty of work throughout the week.

If there was one thing that could slowing this Bills’ freight train, it was injuries. Now we’ll have a chance to see what this team’s depth is made of early in the season. Perhaps fortunately for Buffalo, it will go up against a familiar opponent this week against which it’s enjoyed plenty of recent success on both sides of the ball.

ALLEN DOMINANCE VS. PHINS

The Bills’ dominance of the Dolphins over the years has come primarily as a result of their quarterback’s fine play against their divisional rival. Josh Allen has won seven of eight matchups against Miami, posting a quarterback rating of 106.8 and a 63.24% completion percentage through those eight games. Allen has piled up 1,980 passing yards and 21 touchdowns against just five interceptions against the Dolphins throughout his young career while also rushing for 430 yards and four scores on an average of 8.96 yards per tote. In two games against Miami last season, Allen completed 61% of his passes for 428 yards and four touchdowns against one interception.

While Miami brought in a new head coach in the offseason in offensive-minded HC Mike McDaniel, McDaniel elected to retain defensive coordinator Josh Boyer, who served in the same role under the Dolphins’ previous regime. Allen has previously given Boyer’s defense fits and is poised to do so once again this week.

“Every game is different, every season’s different,“ said Allen, down playing his past success against Miami. “They’re playing really well, especially on the defensive side of the ball right now. So we’ve got to be prepared for whatever they can throw at us. And we know that usually during these division game they throw in a different wrinkle that they haven’t shown on film and try to break some tendencies. So we’ve got to be ready.”

With a few injuries plaguing the Miami defense, including starting cornerback Byron Jones who was placed on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list to begin the year, one should expect much of the same success from Allen against a Dolphins defense that is allowing the most yards per pass attempt in the league (8.66) through two weeks. Miami may also be without its other starting cornerback Xavien Howard (groin), who was limited most of week and is questionable to play on Sunday.

In addition to their allowance of chunk plays through the passing game, Miami’s defense has struggled to produce pressure, as it is currently tied for the fourth-fewest sacks of any defense in the league entering Week 3. Although Allen was glowing in his praise of the Dolphins’ defense, nothing points to this unit being able to slow down Allen and the vaunted Bills’ passing attack for one quarter, let alone four. If Miami is to come away from this game victorious, a win likely must come as a result of a shootout.

If the Dolphins are going to outlast the Bills in a high-scoring affair, Tagovailoa must once again be at his best, as he was during Miami’s shocking Week 2 win over the Ravens.

The Dolphins QB is as polarizing a player as there is in the NFL, with fans, sports writers, analysts, and otherwise choosing sides in the debate of whether or not the former fifth-overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft was worth such a lofty selection. Since entering the league, Tagovailoa has started 23 games, compiling a 15-8 record while completing 67% of his passes for 5,206 yards and 34 touchdowns against 17 interceptions for his career. He has gotten off to a scorching start to begin the ’22 campaign, completing over 71% of his passes for a league-leading 739 yards and seven scores against two picks.

One of the differences for the Dolphins QB this season, albeit through a small sample size, has been his ability to connect more consistently on throws deeper down the field. According to Pro Football Focus, Tagovailoa’s completion percentage on throws of medium depth, which is considered 10-19 yards, is at 68.4% (13-of-19) through his team’s first two games, totaling 240 yards and a couple of touchdowns against one interception on those throws. Through two weeks, he has completed 6-of-10 deep throws, which are throws of 20-plus yards, for 204 yards and three touchdowns against one interception. The Miami QB finished with a paltry completion percentage of just 48.3% on deep throws and 51% on throws of medium depth a season ago.

“Tua was the player of the week last week and rightfully so,“ said Von Miller. “He has everything you need to be a great quarterback in this league. He’s shifty, he can move just like (Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray) he can extend the pocket and do all of the things that all other great quarterbacks do. From Kyler to Patrick Mahomes. It’s going to be a hell of a challenge.”

There is no doubt that McDaniel has done a much better job than the team’s previous regime in terms of tailoring the Dolphins’ offense around its quarterback. By no means has Tagovailoa turned into one of the game’s elite deep throwers overnight. But his improved ability to push the ball down field has been apparent while extending Miami’s ability to put points on the board and should be accounted for, particularly considering the Bills will be without one of, if not both, of their starting safeties for Sunday’s game.

Outside of the introduction of a new offensive system that has allowed him to spread his wings, the addition of Hill has perhaps been the most significant factor in Tagovailoa’s increased success this season.

Adding one of the game’s most dangerous weapons would be a boon for any offense. But for one that already came equipped with fellow 1,000-yard receiver Jaylen Waddle, it’s worked wonders for the Dolphins. Hill (284) and Waddle (240) are currently No. 1 and No. 3, respectively, in the NFL in terms of receiving yards, with Stefon Diggs between the two with 270 receiving yards through two games. While Tagovailoa has improved his ability to throw down the field, it’s been his receiver’s ability to create yards after the catch which has allowed his game to truly flourish.

“I’m familiar with Tyreek Hill and he’s one of the best wide receivers in the league — he’s the fastest hands down,“ said Miller. “Jaylen Waddle, I’ve been a fan of him too.”

Through two weeks, Waddle leads all NFL pass-catchers in yards after the catch (YAC) per reception (minimum eight receptions), accumulating an average of 7.8 YAC on his 15 catches this season. Hill is tied for eighth in the league, creating an average of 5.7 YAC per reception on 19 receptions. Accruing YAC will likely once again be a critical focus for the Dolphins’ offense this week. The Bills are equipped with one of the league’s most impactful four-man pass-rushing units, which will likely require Tagovailoa to get the ball out quickly this week and be decisive in doing so, rather than waiting for plays to develop down the field.

Through the team’s 2-0 start, Buffalo has recorded the second-most sacks (9) in the league while dialing up the blitz at the second-lowest rate (7.8%) of any team in the NFL. That has allowed it to leave seven men in pass coverage far more often than not, making matters increasingly more difficult for opposing quarterbacks. The early-season specialty of the Bills’ defense has been creating four-man pressure, something the team has always tried to achieve under McDermott. Buffalo will again look to generate a solid rush against Miami, which features an offensive line that has allowed Tagovailoa to be sacked four times through two weeks and allows him to be pressured on 26.1% of his dropbacks. When pressured, Tagovailoa’s completion percentage drops to 57.9% as opposed to 75% when he is kept clean in the pocket. The Dolphins’ offensive line may be with starting tackle Terron Armstead, who has missed practice all week with a toe injury.

If Buffalo’s fierce pressure unit can get going once again, that will force Tagovailoa to release his throws early in the down, which will then require the Miami offense to rely on YAC off of shorter routes and completions rather than trying for big plays down field in the passing game. The hope, in that case, will be that Buffalo’s young defensive backs can maintain their responsibilities and tackle well in order to disallow Hill and Waddle from doing what they do best — taking off after the reception.

“Very confident,” said Sean McDermott in the team’s young players in the secondary and their ability to hold things down in the absence of a few starters. “I know we have a number of injuries but I remain very confident in our football team and very confident in the back end.”

The battle between the Dolphins’ speedy receivers and Buffalo’s youthful secondary could be the most significant factor in deciding this game. If the rookie CBs and green safeties can hold up, it should be another big day for the Bills’ defense. Conversely, if they allow Hill and Waddle to get free early, it will be a long day for the Buffalo ‘D’ chasing after those two wide receivers.

Despite the Dolphins’ second-half miracle victory against the Ravens, it should not soon be forgotten how the first half turned out for Miami in that game, particularly for its quarterback. Before Tagovailoa sparked an improbable comeback, the Miami QB finished the first half appearing much like his ’20 and ’21 self, completing 12-of-20 passes for 150 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions, which was good enough for a passer rating of just 60.4 and a 28-7 deficit at the break.

As much as one should give credit to Tagovailoa and the Dolphins for making the halftime adjustments, which allowed them to storm back in the second half, one must also consider the failures of the Ravens’ defense to adjust to Miami’s adjustments on offense.

Don’t count on the same thing happening this week.

The Bills come equipped with one of the most experienced, respected defensive coaching staffs in the league that has enjoyed previous success defending against Tagovailoa, albeit with a much healthier roster than it has at its disposal this week. In three career games against the Bills, Tagovailoa is 0-3 and has completed just 56% of his passes for 579 yards and a touchdown against four interceptions.

Understanding the Dolphins made a coaching change that has led to distinct changes to how things look for Miami on the offensive side of the ball, one thing that hasn’t changed for the Dolphins is the guy calling the offensive signals on the field. And past experience points to that not being an ideal situation for Miami this week against Buffalo, who has turned the Dolphins into a little brother of sorts over the past several seasons.

Aside from the numerous injuries to a few significant players, including Hyde, Oliver, Jackson, Phillips and No. 1 cornerback Tre’Davious White, who remains on the PUP list, all other signs point toward the Bills moving to 3-0 with another win. Although, perhaps a victory will not come as easily as it did during the first two weeks of the season.

“That’s just part of it,“ said Miller regarding the Bills dealing with injuries this week. “Every Super Bowl team that I’ve been on, we’ve had to deal with some type of injury…That’s just part of it. You need depth and you need your core foundation of players to play well. And this core foundation of players we’ve got here is incredible.”

Prediction: Gimme the Bills to win, 42-30, with the Dolphins making a late push in garbage time after the Bills mount a sizeable lead.