Miami Heat 2021-22 player review: Duncan Robinson

Welcome back to our player review series. Amid us deep-diving into the draft and everything regarding the future of the organization, we’re discussing the seasons for Miami Heat players that played in the 2021-22 NBA season who finished on the active roster — regardless of their impending status entering 2022-23.

This will be our 11th player — we’ve reviewed Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler, Dewayne Dedmon, Udonis Haslem, Tyler Herro, Haywood Highsmith, Kyle Lowry, Caleb Martin, Markieff Morris and Victor Oladipo. Today, we will be reviewing Heat sharpshooter Duncan Robinson.

Let’s jump into it!

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Season overview (79 games):

• 10.9 points
• 2.6 rebounds
• 39.9 field goal percentage
• 37.2 3-point percentage
• 83.6 free-throw percentage
• 57.3 true-shooting percentage
• 10.6 player efficiency rating

Robinson inked a five-year, $90 million contract last offseason and looked to re-kindle his 2019-20 shooting stroke after a somewhat down 2020-21 campaign. Needless to say, that didn’t occur. Robinson got off to an unbelievably cold start, ultimately finding his groove from beyond the arc. Though he underwent the most valleys without many peaks he’s had in his young career. Robinson fell out of the starting lineup to Max Strus later in the season and never got back in it.

Best game?

Jan. 8 vs. Phoenix Suns

Robinson posted two games with at least eight made 3-pointers in a single game after totaling zero in 2020-21. This was one of them. Robinson and Herro combined for 60 points off the bench, tallying 27 and 33, respectively. Robinson shot 9-of-17 from the floor and 8-of-16 from 3-point range.

Numbers to note:

37.2 – Robinson posted a career-low 37.2 3-point percentage (over a full season) in 2021-22. He began the season ice cold, netting just 31.8 percent of his 3s over his first 22 games. Over his final 57, he shot 39.7 percent from 3-point range. To the average player, Robinson’s 37.2 percentage would be a respectable mark, though the 6-foot-8 sharpshooter canned a combined 42.7 percent of them in his first two full seasons. That’s a testament to how good of a shooter he is when he’s on.

86.0 – For the third straight season, Robinson’s 3-point rate finished above 85 percent. This year, it was 86 percent — meaning Robinson took 86 percent of his field goal attempts from 3-point range.

11.4 – Duncan Robinson lit the sun on fire in Miami’s opening game of the postseason against the Atlanta Hawks, totaling 27 points on 8-of-9 shooting from 3-point range. Disclaimer: If I didn’t limit my “Best game?” category to regular season games, this would’ve likely been it. But Robinson fell out of the rotation because of his defense, playing just 11.4 minutes per game thereafter. Ultimately, Miami’s demise was in-part due to its lack of 3-point shooting; Spoelstra thrusted Robinson near the end of its run, but the lack of a consistent role preventing him from fashioning any sustainable rhythm.

What’s next?

Robinson was the fastest player in NBA History to 500, 600 and 700 3-pointers. That streak might continue onward, too. Regardless of the regressing percentages, he’s still one of the most potent 3-point shooters on this planet. Though Miami’s in a precarious position financially, which could mean Robinson’s out the door. I’ve hinted at it numerous times within these spaces and others — but Robinson’s $16.9 million makes him a premium trade candidate. It’s the Heat’s only salary that rests between $10-20 million, which, theoretically, is the golden range for a salary filler in a larger trade. Robinson getting traded is not a certainty because his value might be at an all-time low. Miami’s value of him might hold different weight compared to, say, the Brooklyn Nets, Utah Jazz or Detroit Pistons. His standing will be one to monitor over the next several days and potentially weeks. You can’t help but wonder if Robinson’s already played his final game in a Heat uniform in-part to the financial gymnastics the organization’s in with acquiring better talent.