Miami Marlins improved roster, set for expanded 2022 MLB playoffs
JUPITER — Don’t let spring training results fool you. Some do, but Miami Marlins manager Don Mattingly has been around long enough not to fall into that trap.
“I’ve found that out too many times,” Mattingly said this week. “We played so well last spring.”
However, when the 2021 regular season started, the Marlins struggled early and finished with a 67-95 record.
This year?
“You feel so good about it, but [spring] just doesn’t matter,” Mattingly said. “It’s more about our approach, how we’re getting ready. We’re trying to get ready for opening day. That’s what is going to count. That’s what we’re going to remember, what happens in the season.”
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Opening day for Miami is today at the San Francisco Giants. Spring training is a time for optimism for all clubs. For the Marlins, yes, they bring a much improved roster to the opener at Oracle Park.
Their ace, Sandy Alcantara, is one of the better starters in the game. The everyday lineup is improved, so it’s easy to like their chances. But for all the moves the Marlins have made, have they done enough to be a legitimate playoff contender?
Their chances do increase with the expanded playoffs, with six teams in each league now making the postseason. Without question, Miami should make things interesting. A problem: The loaded National League East also got significantly better.
The Atlanta Braves, even without Freddie Freeman, should be formidable. The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies spent on high-profile free agents. Only the Washington Nationals, in a rebuilding mode, aren’t primed to contend.
“We can compete,” Marlins chairman and principal owner Bruce Sherman said on the first day of spring training. “There is another team in Florida that does a particularly good job with a payroll about the same as ours.”
The Tampa Bay Rays, who win more with less than any big league club, are a worthwhile model for Miami. Like the Rays, the Marlins have a deep farm system and a core of strong big leaguers. The difference is the Rays have done it, while the Marlins are looking to take that next step.
Spring training is hardly an indicator. The 2021 Marlins went 14-5 in Grapefruit League action, only to get off to a slow start when the games counted. The Marlins finished 7-7 in lockout-shortened Grapefruit League action this spring.
The team is still flawed. The outfield lacks defensive depth, and there are bullpen issues. But they do have enough to keep pace, at least in the first half. What the .500 spring training record doesn’t tell is how the Marlins addressed several of their most pressing needs.
They entered camp looking to add at least one more impactful bat. They resolved that by signing free agent outfielder Jorge Soler (three years, $36 million). Late in camp, when it was obvious their bullpen was a little leaky, the Marlins swung a trade with the Baltimore Orioles, acquiring right-hander Cole Sulser, who has closing experience, and hard-throwing lefty Tanner Scott, who has upside.
Of importance, they didn’t relinquish much in terms of prospects, sending left-hander Antonio Velez and outfielder Kevin Guerrero to the Orioles, along with a Competitive Balance Round B Draft pick and a player to be named.
Grading their overall offseason, the Marlins probably get a solid B. Before the 99-day MLB lockout, they signed free agent outfielder Avisail Garcia (four years, $53 million) and extended Alcantara (five years, $56 million).
Ownership made a $145 million commitment to Alcantara, Garcia and Soler. They extended lefty reliever Richard Bleier (two years, $6 million), and avoided arbitration with first baseman/designated hitter Jesus Aguilar ($7.3 million).
The Marlins also upgraded a sluggish offense by trading for catcher Jacob Stallings and infielder Joey Wendle.
Clearly, on paper, the Marlins are better.
“I’m sure everyone feels optimistic,” Mattingly said. “But, you feel good about your club from the standpoint of the work that you’ve seen.”
If the Marlins are to get in the playoff race, they will need their rotation to lead the way. Alcantara, Pablo Lopez and Trevor Rogers are a terrific trio. Jesus Luzardo has upside, and Elieser Hernandez is sneaky effective. In the wings are prospects Edward Cabrera and Max Meyer.
Will the offense score enough? They ranked 29th in runs in the majors last year. This spring? They tied with the Mets for 28th.
Again, spring stats can be deceiving. But they didn’t rake up a bunch of runs, either.
According to PECOTA metrics on FanGraphs, the Marlins are projected at 77.7 wins and 84.3 losses. After last year, flirting with a .500 season would be a success.
Joe Frisaro covered the Marlins from 2002 to 2020 for mlb.com. He is the founder of ManOn2nd Baseball. Follow him @ManOn2nd and his podcast on the Five Reasons Sports YouTube channel.
Friday’s opener
Marlins at Giants, 4:35 p.m.,
TV: BSF
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