Making the case for the Miami Open semifinalists

We’re down to the final four in Miami. The first semifinal pits four-time major champion Naomi Osaka against reigning Olympic champion Belinda Bencic. The second semifinal sees a clash between soon-to-be World No.1 Iga Swiatek against two-time Australian Open quarterfinalist Jessica Pegula. 

Osaka and Bencic were pristine in the last round. Each lost only three games. But if you want the fewest number of games lost in Miami you’ll have to look to the other semifinal. Swiatek has lost just 15 games over the fortnight. Pegula, with the help of two retirements, bested that mark with 12 games. 

The first semifinal between Osaka and Bencic pits two members of the storied Class of 97 against each other. The second, with Swiatek and Pegula, is a battle between the two winningest players at the WTA 1000s since the start of 2021.

How will these two semifinal matches play out? We make our case for each player:

Miami Open quarterfinal results

No.22 Belinda Bencic vs. Naomi Osaka

Case for Bencic

The prospects for Belinda Bencic coming into the Miami Open weren’t exactly promising.

The 25-year-old Swiss star was 5-5 at this early juncture of 2022 and looking for the kind of form that brought her a career-altering singles gold medal at the Tokyo Olympics less than a year ago. While all of the other high-profile seeds in her quarter – No.1 Aryna Sabalenka, No.6 Karolina Pliskova, No.11 Emma Raducanu and No.15 Elina Svitolina – managed to lose their first matches, Bencic has been flawless.

She’s 4-0 and hasn’t dropped a set. Moreover, she looks like the precise, taking-it-early player we have come to know. And while she has yet to play a seeded player herself, she is more than ready for the challenge Naomi Osaka presents.

True, as Alex mentions below, that 3-1 head-to-head is largely irrelevant because the three most recent matches came three years ago. But, even with Osaka looking very much like a four-time Grand Slam champion, Bencic will not be intimidated. Not only is her sharply angled game built to absorb power, she’s playing with confidence.

Incredibly, she had lost her past seven quarterfinal matches – six in straight sets – before defeating Daria Saville 6-1, 6-2, in 69 minutes. Bencic saved seven of eight break points, broke Saville’s serve five times. This is her first Hologic WTA Tour 1000 semifinal since 2019 Madrid, where she beat Osaka in the quarterfinals.

“The last time was US Open 2019, if I remember correctly,” Bencic said, remembering correctly. “Definitely in that year I felt great playing against her. Somehow it was my form, as well, but also the matchup. I guess your opponent plays always as good as you let her.”

What, exactly, worked so well against Osaka?

“Well,” Bencic said, “I’m not going to talk tactics now, for sure.

“I guess the whole form I had, the vibe. I went to the court. I always didn’t have anything to lose against her. Obviously, you know, she’s the player that has to defend [ranking points]. I just hope to give my best and continue to play the tennis I’m playing.” — Greg Garber

Case for Osaka

The narrative going into the semifinals is that Belinda Bencic is Naomi Osaka’s nemesis. Bencic’s ability to take the ball preternaturally early uses all of Osaka’s power against her, robs her of time and is kryptonite for her game.

This assessment is based on Bencic’s 3-1 head-to-lead lead in their rivalry. But those three wins all came within a seven-month spell in 2019, a period during which Osaka’s struggles were more general than just her matches against Bencic. After winning the 2019 Australian Open, Osaka also fell to Kristina Mladenovic, Hsieh Su-Wei, Katerina Siniakova and Yulia Putintseva twice – all players she has managed to defeat at other times. She also suffered niggling injuries that season, giving two walkovers and one retirement. It wasn’t until the 2019 Asian swing that a fully healthy Osaka rediscovered her best level.

In Miami, Osaka has been in superb mental and physical form. She has yet to lose a set, and has dropped serve only once, against Alison Riske in the fourth round. She’s relaxed and at ease with talking about her tennis – and interestingly, she had vivid memories of her previous win over Bencic. That was nine years ago, in an ITF W25 event in Pelham. Osaka recalled eating diced pineapples before the match, but also came out with a couple of insights that could be seen as warning shots.

Bencic, a feted 16-year-old junior at the time, was virtually a professional to a 15-year-old Osaka. “She had a lot of stuff going on that I couldn’t even comprehend. … She was warming up properly and stuff. I think she had a sponsor.”

Bencic had those advantages, but it was Osaka who won 6-3, 6-3 – despite her own rudimentary development.

“When I was that young, I don’t think I had strategy. It was all instinct, and I still kind of play that way sometimes, much to Wim’s horror.”

In other words: Osaka overcame the odds to beat Bencic before, by simply overpowering her. And she’s capable of repeating that. — Alex Macpherson

No.16 Jessica Pegula vs. No.2 Iga Swiatek

Case for Pegula

It is a fact that Jessica Pegula has spent only 44 minutes in action over her last two matches, as Anhelina Kalinina and Paula Badosa retired from those clashes after six and five games respectively.

But even in those stretches of play, Pegula showed the clean, powerful tennis that has propelled her to career-best results in 2021 and 2022. Underestimating Pegula’s chances of going further simply because of the scant time it took her to get to the semifinals could prove to be a costly error.

Pegula controlled her match with Kalinina from both wings, finishing their set with 11 winners and just two unforced errors. Against No.5 seed Badosa, Pegula bossed the Spaniard into errors with thumping forehands in one-quarter of the total points played. Even in truncated tussles, Pegula took charge.

“I have lost one game in those almost-two sets,” Pegula said on Wednesday. “Definitely playing really clean tennis, I think right from the start.”

Against incoming World No.1 Swiatek, Pegula will need to maintain that level of pristine power. Swiatek, undefeated in WTA 1000 events this season, is currently the top returner on tour.

But No.16 seed Pegula likely possesses a surplus of energy at her disposal to have a fighting chance. Even in her first two matches, against dangerous foes — former Miami champion Sloane Stephens, and Elena Rybakina, seeded one spot behind her at No.17 — Pegula won briskly.

“I definitely feel like I’m well rested,” said Pegula. “I think at this stage I will take it, especially going against [Swiatek], I think it’s going to be a lot more physical. Happy I’m rested.”

Pegula, who lives in nearby Boca Raton, will also be helped by home support guiding her through tough moments. She is the last American standing in either singles draw this week.

“I have been able to find my routine and rhythm from being at home, and I get to go home and see my dogs,” said Pegula. “It’s always a win when you get to see your dogs.” — Jason Juzwiak

Case for Swiatek

Iga Swiatek may not be the World No.1 yet – that’s still five days away – but there’s no denying she’s certainly playing like one. The numbers around Swiatek’s 15-match surge over the last three tournaments – all WTA 1000s – are absurd. This hasn’t been an easy run. Here are the 10 seeded players she’s defeated over that span: Aryna Sabalenka, Maria Sakkari, Anett Kontaveit, Clara Tauson, Angelique Kerber, Madison Keys, Simona Halep, Sakkari again, Coco Gauff, and Petra Kvitova. All but two of those matches were won in straight sets. 

“My mental game is on point, because I feel like I’m using this streak, and it’s not something that is pushing me down,” Swiatek said after her quarterfinal win. “For sure I get tired and I have to work through that’s just being mentally tired. It’s not something that I haven’t had in my life.”

En route to her first Miami semifinal, Swiatek has not dropped a set. She hasn’t even lost more than 3 games in a set. She is breaking serve 58.1% of the time. After dropping two games to Viktorija Golubic in her opening match to secure her rise to No.1, it would have surprised no one to see the matches and the moment catch up to the 20-year-old. She hasn’t blinked once. 

Swiatek will be going for her first win over Pegula, though their only previous match came three years ago. But 2022 Iga is a much-evolved player from 2019 Iga, and her transformation into a player who can deploy vastly different tactics to undo different gamestyles has been top-notch this season.

To beat Gauff, Swiatek stepped up and took control of the baseline, firing winners. To beat Kvitova, Swiatek dug in and absorbed the Czech’s pace to earn impatient errors. In both instances, Swiatek feasted on her second-serve returns. It will be a tough puzzle for Pegula to solve. It’s been a tough puzzle for anyone to solve, frankly.

If she wins on Friday, Swiatek will become the ninth player in tour history to reach the finals in Indian Wells and Miami in the same year, joining Monica Seles, Stefanie Graf, Serena Williams, Martina Hingis, Lindsay Davenport, Kim Clijsters, Maria Sharapova, and Victoria Azarenka. Only four of those women did it before they turned 21: Seles, Serena, Hingis, and Sharapova. Swiatek may not be No.1 yet, but she’s already on the verge of rubbing shoulders with the game’s greats. — Courtney Nguyen