Swiatek to Race Past Kvitova (March 30)
While half of the Miami semifinals are set, we still have two more quarterfinal matches to go.
I’ve spotted value in both of Wednesday’s matches, including a play on Petra Kvitova vs Iga Swiatek.
Here are two betting picks to think about from the WTA Tour event in Miami.
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Paula Badosa (-205) vs Jessica Pegula (+164)
1 p.m. ET
Paula Badosa is yet to drop a set in Miami. In her latest win, Badosa beat rising star Linda Fruhvirtova 6-2, 6-3 to advance to the quarterfinals.
Against Fruhvirtova, Badosa was able to put 74% of her first serves into play, winning 67% of these points. In addition, the Spaniard broke serve five times on six break points. She won 48% of her return points, including 82% on Fruhvirtova’s second serve. In fact, no opponent all week won more than 40% of their second serves against Badosa.
However, Badosa’s at her best during baseline exchanges. Her shot selection is smart, her depth is terrific, and she knows the right time in a given point to attack. Badosa is enjoying the surprisingly-slow conditions in Miami and doesn’t seem fazed by the humidity.
Jessica Pegula has also not lost a set all tournament. In the round of 16, however, she was fortunate that Anhelina Kalinina retired with Pegula up 6-0 in the match.
Pegula has, otherwise, had a tough road to the quarterfinals. She had to beat Sloane Stephens and Elena Rybakina to even reach the matchup with Kalinina.
Like Badosa, Pegula has done a great job with second-serve returns this week. She hasn’t allowed a player to win over 35% of their second serves in Miami, and Pegula has only been broken twice all week. She’s shown a high level of controlled aggression and is dominating from the baseline.
Badosa is more well-rounded in her game than Pegula and that will be important in this match. She has a higher rally tolerance than Pegula and that’ll allow Badosa to draw errors out of the American.
Her consistent depth will also limit Pegula’s ability to attack and force her to either lower her margins or force her into longer rallies where Badosa would then be able to pick her spot to turn the point around.
The slower courts and heavy air will also benefit Badosa and she should cover this reasonable line.
Pick: Badosa -3.5 games (-110 via FanDuel)
Petra Kvitova (+340) vs Iga Swiatek (-475)
7:05 p.m. ET
Petra Kvitova showed great mental toughness in beating Veronika Kudermetova to reach the quarterfinals of Miami. Kudermetova was *6-5 up in the first set and *4-0 40-0 up in the second set, yet Kvitova won 7-6(5), 6-4.
Kvitova was able to break Kudermetova’s serve six times, winning 49% of her return points. It was important that Kvitova returned well, as she only won 51% of her service points and was broken five times herself.
Interestingly enough, Kvitova hasn’t won more than 60% of her service points all week and she’s been broken 11 times combined in her three matches in Miami.
While Kvitova has stayed mentally strong and can take the racquet out of her opponents’ hands at times with her huge groundstrokes, she would have surely wanted to get more out of her serve so far this week.
Kvitova will need to do that if she wants to beat Iga Swiatek. The new world numer one has won 14 matches in a row and beat Coco Gauff 6-3, 6-1 to advance to the quarterfinals.
Swiatek won 79% of her first-serve points in the match and wasn’t broken. Overall, she has only been broken twice all week. On return, Swiatek won 52% of the points on Gauff’s serve and made it four-straight matches overall where she has won over 50% of her return points in a match.
The Pole had won Doha and Indian Wells in her two tournaments prior to arriving in Miami. All aspects of her game are clicking at the moment. She’s hitting her spots on-serve, has a near-perfect balance of power, depth, and consistency from the baseline, and her forehand has continued to evolve into one of the best shots on the WTA Tour.
This is going to be a nightmare for Kvitova. She’s not serving well, so she can’t expect a huge advantage on her first serve. Her baseline game looked better towards the end of her match with Kudermetova, but Swiatek will feast on her inconsistent play.
Swiatek’s overall Elo rating is 186.1 points higher than Kvitova’s and her hard-court Elo is 191.1 points higher than the Czech’s.
I don’t see how Kvitova pushes this over the total.
Pick: Under 19.5 games (-105 via PointsBet)
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