Miami projects as a Top 25 team in the preseason SP+ analytic

It is never too early to look ahead to the next college football season. 

With that in mind, ESPN college football expert Bill Connelly released his first edition of the preseason SP+ projections. 

Connelly’s SP+ formula is based on the following three factors and those three factors are weighted by their predictiveness: returning production, recent recruiting (including transfers), and recent history. 

SP+ is tempo and opponent adjusted measurement of efficiency. The best way to think about these projections: a power ranking of every football team in the country. 

It is respected as the best predictive analytic in college football. 

So how did Miami fare in these offseason projections? The Hurricanes check in at No. 20 overall in the country. 

The SP+ projects UM’s offense as the No. 24 group in the country while the defensive projects No. 29 nationally. 

Miami ranks as the fourth best team in the ACC, trailing Clemson (No. 5), Pittsburgh (No. 13), and NC State (No. 15). In-state rival Florida State ranks No. 24 overall in the ranking. 

Here is a look at how the teams on Miami’s 2022 schedule rank in the SP+ projection: 

– Sept. 3: Bethune-Cookman: FCS opponent, not ranked

– Sept. 10: Southern Miss: No. 98

– Sept. 17: @Texas A&M: No. 6

– Sept. 24: Middle Tennessee: No. 104

– Oct. 8: North Carolina: No. 40

– Oct. 15: @Virginia Tech: No. 59

– Oct. 22: Duke: No. 117

– Oct. 29: @Virginia: No. 63

– Nov. 5: Florida State: No. 24

– Nov. 12: @Georgia Tech: No. 92

– Nov. 19: @Clemson: No. 5

– Nov. 26: Pittsburgh: No. 13

The SP+ draws a pretty significant line in the sand between Miami’s quality opponents and the others. Generally speaking, Top 40 opponents will always be regarded as tough games. The Hurricanes have five Top 40 opponents in 2022: TAMU, UNC, FSU, Clemson, and Pittsburgh. 

UM faces four opponents that rank 90th or lower in the SP+ rating: Southern Miss, Middle Tennessee, Duke, and Georgia Tech.

The Hurricanes will be an interesting team to watch in 2022. UM made a head coaching change from Manny Diaz to Mario Cristobal after a disappointing 7-5 season in 2021. 

Cristobal is continuing to put together his coaching staff, but has had an impressive pair of coordinators in Michigan’s Josh Gattis to lead the offense and veteran Kevin Steele to lead the defense. 

Miami will feature one of the most talented quarterbacks in the country going into the 2022 season with Tyler Van Dyke entering the year as the unquestioned starter. In ten games, Van Dyke threw for 2,931 yards with 25 touchdowns and six interceptions.