Best bets for Monday Night Football
The New Orleans Saints will host the Miami Dolphins to wrap up Week 16 on Monday Night Football (8:15 ET on ESPN).
This week, ESPN betting analyst Eric Moody along with Football Outsiders’ Aaron Schatz offer up their best bets.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook as of Sunday, unless otherwise noted.
Miami Dolphins (-2.5, 37.5) at New Orleans Saints
Moody: Both the Saints and Dolphins have struggled to move the football this season. Miami averages 314.7 total yards per game (23rd) while New Orleans averages 311.7 (26th). Furthermore, neither team scores a lot of points. With an average of 22.4 points per game, the Saints are ranked 17th, while the Dolphins are ranked 21st. The offensive situation for the Saints is even worse, as both Hill and Siemian are on the COVID-19 list, with Book set to start. This will put even more pressure on the Saints defense.
The good news for the Dolphins is that they’ve played much better offensively of late and should be relatively healthy coming into this game.
From a player prop perspective, Alvin Kamara will play against one of the league’s best run defenses. The Dolphins rank ninth in run-stop rate. Kamara will be able to use his skills as a receiver out of the backfield. During his last five active games, he’s averaged 6.6 targets and 4.6 receptions. This should position him to surpass the prop total.
Picks: Under 37.5 points (-110), Dolphins -2.5 (-110), Kamara over 25.5 receiving yards (-115)
Schatz: I’ve written in this space a couple of times about the fact that “passes defensed” is a better predictor of future interceptions than past interception totals. That’s why it’s somewhat astonishing that Zach Wilson of the New York Jets did not throw any interceptions last week against the Miami defense, which leads the NFL with 77 passes defensed.
I’m going to guess that the Dolphins defense will not be shut out on picks two weeks in a row, especially facing fourth-round rookie Ian Book, pressed into his first NFL start after both Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill were placed on the COVID-19 list.
Pick: Book over 0.5 interceptions
