Iowa State vs. Miami (Florida) Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Pop-Tarts Bowl

Two teams that narrowly missed the College Football Playoff will look to finish the season on a high note in the Pop-Tarts Bowl!

Miami, led by Heisman Trophy candidate Cam Ward, will look to finish the season in style in a resurgent campaign for the Hurricanes around a high-octane offense. However, the team’s defense held the team back from earning CFP consideration, and will face a stiff test against a potent Iowa State passing game, led by emerging star Rocco Becht for the Big 12 Championship runners-up. 

Who has the edge in one of the more high profile bowl games on the docket? Let’s break it down!

Spread

Moneyline

Total: 54.5 (Over -114/Under -106)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Iowa State 

Rocco Becht: The sophomore passed for 3,235 yards with 22 touchdowns and nine interceptions for the Cyclones big play-hunting offense. Becht struggles at times with accuracy, completing only 59% of his passes, but he is a threat at all times to hit a big pass to either Jayden Higgins or Jaylin Noel who played a big role in Iowa State going to the Big 12 title game. 

Miami (Florida)

Cam Ward: A Heisman Trophy finalist, no quarterback was more dangerous with the ball in his hands than Ward, who unlocked the Hurricanes offense to a prolific level. He was second in the country in passing yards and tops in passing touchdowns, but despite a handful of heroic comebacks, couldn’t do enough to offset a shaky defense that kept the team from the CFP.

This game should feature big plays all over with Iowa State’s offense ranking top third in the country in explosive pass rate, which should test a shaky Miami defense that is outside the top 100 in explosive play rate allowed. 

Miami’s defense has consistently been its Achilles heel, and it’s tough to trust the team in a glorified exhibition. The team is outside the top 100 in tackling grade, per Pro Football Focus, and I’m not confident the group will improve its standing in this matchup against an explosive Iowa State offense. 

However, the Cyclones defense has consistently been overrated as well. 

The team is outside the top 100 in EPA/Rush and Miami is as dynamic as any offense in the country both through the air with Ward and the two-headed monster at running back in Damien Martinez and Mark Fletcher. 

The Miami offense is expected to have all key players on the field for this one, and the team’s ability to find success on the ground to open up the downfield passing attack should lead to plenty of scoring chances in this one. 

I believe that as we get closer to this game and get further confirmation that Ward is, who said that he was playing in this game, the line will continue to shade towards the Hurricanes, but I believe the best way to play this game at the moment is to take the over as each team should be able to hit explosive plays and score in bunches. 

PICK: OVER 55

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets on betstamp @rw33

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