College football Week 11 – Michigan-Penn State, Miami upset chances, Ole Miss-Georgia keys, best bets
Bill ConnellyESPN Staff Writer21 Minute Read
Four ranked-versus-ranked matchups. Two matchups of top-10 teams. Yet another pair of massive Pac-12 battles. A battle royale in the Big 12. Miami vs. Florida State and one of the more reliably silly games in the sport, Florida vs. LSU.
Every college football weekend in November is huge. That’s just the nature of the sport. But Week 11 sure does pack some oomph, from Michigan-Penn State early to USC-Oregon super late. No more time for an intro! Let’s get to the good stuff! Here’s everything you need to follow during a wild Week 11.
Jump to a section:
The big showdowns | Pac-12 gauntlet, round 4
Second-best SEC East team | Texas’ Big 12 challengers | Miami’s A-game enough?
Favorite bets | Week 11 playlist | Small school showcase
The big ones
After getting dinged by many for weak schedules through September and October, Michigan and Georgia now get to earn their keep in the College Football Playoff race. Georgia began last week, surviving a tough test from Missouri, and it now gets two more ranked opponents (Ole Miss and Tennessee) before likely facing Alabama in the SEC championship.
Michigan, meanwhile, gets Penn State and Ohio State in the next three weeks. Off the field machinations could conspire to keep Michigan out of the Big Ten championship … but almost certainly won’t, if we’re being honest. If Big Ten teams want the Wolverines out of the title game and/or CFP, someone will have to beat them. Penn State gets the first crack at it.
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No. 3 Michigan Wolverines at No. 10 Penn State Nittany Lions (noon, Fox)
We’ve seen almost no signs of vulnerability from Michigan this season. (Whoops, sorry to use the word “signs” there, Big Ten fans.) Quarterback J.J. McCarthy is second in Total QBR, the offense is third in points per drive and the defense is first in points allowed per drive. The Wolverines also rushed for more than 400 yards on PSU last year in a blowout win.
Might they do that again Saturday? Maybe, but Penn State’s awfully good, too, and we can piece together a loose “How an upset happens” road map based on the Nittany Lions’ strengths.
Here are the most likely keys to a Penn State win:
Turnovers. The Nittany Lions are No. 1 nationally in both turnover margin (+14) and expected turnover margin, a number based on the national averages for fumble recoveries and interception-to-pass breakup ratios.
This isn’t a Michigan weakness, mind you, but Michigan’s McCarthy has had a couple of randomly awful turnover games — he threw three interceptions against Bowling Green in September and threw a pair of pick-sixes in last year’s CFP loss to TCU. A less than five-point underdog really only needs a +1 or +2 turnover margin to flip a game, and PSU is capable of generating that.
Big plays. Despite being led by first-year starter Drew Allar, the Nittany Lions’ offense has been remarkably mistake-free: They rank first in interception rate, fourth in stuff rate allowed and 20th in sack rate allowed. But they’ve also produced only 24 gains of 20-plus yards, fifth fewest in the country.
Michigan’s offense isn’t incredibly explosive either, however, and Penn State allows fewer chunk plays than most. This isn’t really a Nittany Lions advantage, but if Penn State can break even in the big-play department, that’s huge.
Third-down sacks. McCarthy doesn’t get sacked much, but eight of the 11 sacks against him came on what I define as passing downs (second-and-8 or more, third- or fourth-and-5 or more). Penn State ranks first nationally in sack rate and second in pressure rate. Ten Nittany Lions have at least two sacks, and even without star Chop Robinson they sacked Maryland’s Taulia Tagovailoa six times last week.
Third-and-medium offense. If Penn State is behind schedule too much, the Nittany Lions are toast. Allar hasn’t been good enough in obvious-pass situations. But if they can at least stay in the third-and-manageable range, they could be okay. On third-and-medium (2-7 yards to go), Penn State’s 54% conversion rate ranks 34th, and Michigan’s 43% allowed ranks 36th. In what could be a major ball control battle, a solid third-down conversion rate could flip both the field and the overall advantage.
Current line: Michigan -5 | SP+ projection: Michigan by 5.9 | FPI projection: PSU by 0.3
No. 9 Ole Miss Rebels at No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs (7 p.m., ESPN)
Even in close calls earlier this season — a 24-14 win over South Carolina, a 27-20 win over Auburn — Georgia still dominated statistically. The Dawgs had outgained every opponent by at least 100 yards. But last week’s game against Missouri was a struggle. They outgained the Tigers by 22 yards but lost the success rate battle (42% to 39%) for the first time all year and only the third time in 43 games. They needed some of their best red zone play of the season and two late interceptions to seal a 30-21 win.
Now comes a different sort of test. Lane Kiffin has taken Ole Miss to a new place of late — the Rebels are 26-9 since the start of 2021 — but he’s still waiting to beat one of the SEC’s big dogs. He’s 0-3 against Nick Saban’s Alabama, and this is his first crack at former Alabama co-worker Kirby Smart. In Kiffin fashion, his Rebs are incredibly volatile. Against the two best defenses they’ve faced, they scored 10 and 38 points and allowed 24 and 49 points, respectively.
You have to pass a physicality test against Georgia, one that Ole Miss didn’t exactly ace in a 24-10 loss to Alabama. But the Rebels’ own volatility comes down to two factors: big plays and turnovers. They have gained 30-plus yards on 30 plays this year, tied for seventh nationally. And when they don’t turn the ball over, they average 42 points per game. (When they do: 27 PPG.) On the flipside, they allow 17 points per game when they force at least two turnovers and 33 when they don’t. Turnovers are always impactful in this regard, but they are particularly impactful for the Rebs, and Georgia is doing an increasingly good job of avoiding them.
Georgia hasn’t committed a turnover in the past two games, but the Dawgs did give up three passes of 30-plus and five of 20-plus to Missouri last week. A whopping 31% of Ole Miss’ completions have gained at least 20 yards, second most in the nation. This game will be the most relentless test yet for an excellent Georgia secondary.
If the Dawgs limit Ole Miss’ explosiveness — and even for explosive teams, big plays arrive rather inconsistently — they should win most of the rest of the battles. Georgia’s offense is delightfully efficient; Ole Miss’ defense … is not. If Texas A&M can score 35 on them, Georgia can score 50. This is a massive opportunity for Kiffin to score the type of win that has eluded him so far. But this is also a game Georgia tends to win.
Current line: UGA -10.5 | SP+ projection: UGA by 13.0 | FPI projection: UGA by 7.4
The next round in the Pac-12 gauntlet
At this point, the Pac-12 race is basically down to three entities: Oregon (44% chance at the title, per SP+), Washington (41%) and everyone else (15%). Recent results — Oregon’s wins over Utah and Cal by a combined 98-25, Washington’s struggles against Arizona State and Stanford — moved Oregon ahead of the Huskies in SP+. But Washington’s the unbeaten team with at least a little bit of margin for error.
The two have very different tests this week. Washington faces the rock fight champion of the West, a Utah team that Oregon was able to manhandle a couple of weeks ago. Oregon, meanwhile, straps its track shoes on to face Caleb Williams and a USC team that fell 52-42 to Washington last Saturday.
No. 18 Utah Utes at No. 5 Washington Huskies (3:30 p.m., Fox)
It’s easy to play the transitive property game and assume that since Oregon walloped Utah 35-6, Washington will also be too good for the Utes. But (a) Utah was spectacular in obliterating Arizona State 55-3 last week, and (b) matchups matter, and the Utes have a chance to push around Washington’s passive run defense.
The Huskies rank a dismal 124th in rushing success rate, and if the Utes can use RB Ja’Quinden Jackson to play a solid ball control game, their risk-reward pass defense — fifth in passing success rate allowed but prone to the occasional big play — could easily make enough plays to scare the Huskies.
However, Washington can run, too! Dillon Johnson’s breakout performance against USC (256 rushing yards, four touchdowns) turned the tide against the Trojans, and while Utah’s pass defense is as aggressive as ever, the Utes rank just 42nd in rushing success rate allowed. Washington’s run game ranks sixth. Staying on schedule is of extreme importance against Utah — the Utes are first in passing downs success rate allowed and eighth in sacks per dropback — but UW might do that just fine.
Current line: UW -9.5 | SP+ projection: UW by 10.2 | FPI projection: UW by 7.3
USC Trojans at No. 6 Oregon Ducks (10:30 p.m., Fox)
It’s grown difficult over time to come up with anything new to say about USC. “The Trojans are going to do delightful things on offense,” “Caleb Williams is going to throw for lots of yards” and “the dismal Trojans defense is going to either make the game far closer than it should be (if the opponent isn’t very good) or lose it entirely.” That doesn’t describe all 24 of Lincoln Riley’s games in charge, but it comes relatively close.
There are two variations with this one, however. First, USC’s playing an increasingly brilliant Oregon team that has won six games by more than four touchdowns. If Johnson can rush for 256 yards on the Trojans, what might Bucky Irving and one of the best run games in college football do?
Riley has also made a defensive change. He fired long-suffering defensive coordinator Alex Grinch, replacing him with interims Shaun Nua and Brian Odom. A midseason change can sometimes provide at least a brief bump in form, effort and a few tactical surprises. Will those changes force a few costly mistakes in Eugene?
USC still has something to play for — if it wins out, a Pac-12 championship appearance is very much within reach. But that ends if the Trojans fall as expected.
Current line: Ducks -15 | SP+ projection: Ducks by 12.8 | FPI projection: Ducks by 14.3
The battle for No. 2 in the SEC East
No. 13 Tennessee Volunteers at No. 14 Missouri Tigers (3:30 p.m., CBS)
A year from now, a game like this will be an elimination game of sorts in the hunt for bids in the 12-team CFP. As it stands now, it’s a fight for a New Year’s Six bowl — what would be a second straight for Tennessee and a first in 10 years for Missouri.
They don’t hang banners for “You made the defending national champ sweat for two straight years,” but Eliah Drinkwitz had to have headed back home last Saturday confident in how good his team is. Now the schedule gives his Tigers another chance to prove it. Tennessee has beaten Mizzou by an average of 54-20 over Drinkwitz’s three previous seasons, and while the Vols were disappointing early in 2023, they’ve won five of six and have risen to 11th in SP+.
This is a different Tennessee team than what Josh Heupel has fielded in recent years. It is no longer built around explosive passes. In fact, it is now built around everything else. Only 12.2% of UT’s completions this season have gone for 20-plus yards, 120th nationally, but Joe Milton III is avoiding big mistakes, the run game is clicking — the trio of Jaylen Wright, Jabari Small and Dylan Sampson is averaging 183 rushing yards per game at 6.3 per carry — and the tempo is still fifth gear at almost all times. It’s working: Two weeks ago, the Vols scored 38 points and averaged 7.1 yards per play on a Kentucky defense that ranks 19th in defensive SP+. They’re also up to 20th in defensive SP+ themselves.
Since barely beating Middle Tennessee in Week 2, Mizzou has found itself overachieving against SP+ projections for six of the past seven games. On offense, the Tigers use a quick passing game and battering RB Cody Schrader to stay on schedule, mixing in deeper shots to Luther Burden III (17 catches of 20-plus yards) and the underrated complementary duo of Theo Wease Jr. and Mookie Cooper. The defense, meanwhile, does a good job of both forcing and pouncing on third-and-longs. The 7-2 Tigers passed the physicality test against Georgia, but Tennessee’s been an even bigger test for them in recent years.
Current line: Vols -1 | SP+ projection: Vols by 2.2 | FPI projection: Vols by 3.9
Who the heck is going to play Texas (probably) in the Big 12 championship?
Oklahoma State’s Bedlam win over Oklahoma gave the Cowboys eternal “last win of the rivalry” bragging rights. It also opened the Big 12 race up wide.
While Texas is 5-1 in Big 12 play and has a 53% chance of winning the conference, per SP+, three other teams are between 11-16% (5-1 Oklahoma State, 4-2 Kansas State and 4-2 Oklahoma), and three more 4-2 longshots are between 1-3% (Kansas, WVU and Iowa State). These odds could look completely different a week from now, but let’s lean into the chaos while this is still technically a seven-team race.
No. 15 Oklahoma State Cowboys at UCF Knights (3:30 p.m., ESPN)
OSU better not have any lingering rivalry hangover because UCF will test the Pokes’ legs. The Knights run the ball well, play with Gus Malzahn tempo and can occasionally beat you deep. They have loads of upside, but the primary reason they’re only 4-5 right now is because they can’t defend the run even a little bit. And now comes OSU’s Ollie Gordon II, the nation’s leading rusher.
Current line: OSU -3 | SP+ projection: OSU by 0.8 | FPI projection: UCF by 0.6
Texas Tech Red Raiders at No. 16 Kansas Jayhawks (noon, FS1)
The god of close games is fickle. Last year, Tech went 4-0 in one-score finishes and went a surprising 8-5. This year, the Red Raiders are 1-3 in said games and 4-5 overall. Kansas, meanwhile, is 3-1 in one-scores and beat OU and Iowa State by a combined 12 points over the past two weeks. The Lubbock buzz has transferred to Lawrence, but on paper these teams are still awfully even.
Current line: KU -4 | SP+ projection: KU by 1.9 | FPI projection: KU by 1.7
West Virginia Mountaineers at No. 17 Oklahoma Sooners (7 p.m., Fox)
Any minuscule chance WVU might have in the Big 12 race will require a win over OU. The Mountaineers have overcome shaky defense, thanks primarily to an efficient run game, some turnovers luck and Neal Brown’s extreme fourth-down aggressiveness. If OU responds to its two-game losing streak with focused anger, this should be a get-right opportunity for the Sooners. But WVU is an opportunistic pain in the butt.
Current line: OU -13 | SP+ projection: OU by 16.1 | FPI projection: OU by 18.5
Baylor Bears at No. 25 Kansas State Wildcats (3 p.m., ESPN+)
Baylor’s leveled off after a dreadful first half of the season, but unfortunately that level isn’t very good. The 2021 Big 12 champs are 3-6 and three-touchdown underdogs against the 2022 champs. The only pathway I see for a Bears upset probably involves receivers Monaray Baldwin and Ketron Jackson Jr. having enormous days. K-State blew late chances against Texas last week, but the Wildcats’ conference title hopes are still very much alive.
Current line: KSU -20.5 | SP+ projection: KSU by 22.0 | FPI projection: KSU by 26.8
Iowa State Cyclones at BYU Cougars (10:15 p.m., ESPN)
Even if ISU probably can’t reach the Big 12 championship, Matt Campbell’s Cyclones can impact who does: They get shots at both Texas and K-State in coming weeks. But first, BYU. The Cougars have produced dramatic home-road splits in their first Big 12 season, overachieving SP+ projections by 12 points per game at home and underachieving by 18 on the road. Both defenses have massive advantages. Rock fight potential: high.
Current line: ISU -7 | SP+ projection: ISU by 5.5 | FPI projection: ISU by 4.3
Miami tries to wreck the FSU party
Miami Hurricanes at No. 4 Florida State Seminoles (3:30 p.m., ABC)
The odds are in Florida State’s favor. The 9-0 Seminoles will be favored by double digits in each of their past three regular-season games, and while a tough Louisville team could await in the ACC championship, FSU would likely be a 10-point favorite or so in that one, too. The Noles therefore have the best odds of reaching the CFP, per SP+.
When you can see the path to glory so clearly, though, that can enhance rivalry dread. If Miami (on Saturday) or Florida (in two weeks) upsets FSU and wrecks the Noles’ plans, they’ll never hear the end of it.
It’s fair to assume that FSU will get both Miami’s and Florida’s respective A-games. But it’s hard to tell what Miami’s A-game is worth right now. The Hurricanes obliterated their first four opponents and rose to 12th in SP+, but they’ve been all over the map since. They’ve lost three of five, blowing a game in memorable fashion against Georgia Tech and losing both a 41-31 track meet at North Carolina and a 20-6 rock fight to NC State. But in between, they beat Clemson. Both the offense and the defense have been great and terrible rather recently.
A Miami A-game could still feature some explosive rushes, quick and safe passing from Tyler Van Dyke and a defensive front that both stuffs runs and tracks down quarterbacks. Against an FSU team that neither runs nor stops the run efficiently and can casually fall into a few too many third-and-longs, that’s a recipe for a solid upset bid. But even with the Seminoles’ propensity for messing around and letting opponents stay close for a while, it’s hard to imagine anything less than this theoretical Miami A-game getting things done. FSU is too mature and patient, and its banged-up receiving corps might be on the way toward health. Both stars Johnny Wilson and Keon Coleman missed last week’s 24-7 slog against Pitt — Wilson has missed three of the past four games — but head coach Mike Norvell expressed optimism about their status this week.
Current line: FSU -14 (down from -15 earlier in the week) | SP+ projection: FSU by 13.4 | FPI projection: FSU by 15.5
My favorite bets
The past four weeks, my best bets have gone 4-1, 1-4, 1-4 and 3-2 (with a late, bad-beat touchdown by Purdue preventing a more symmetrical 4-1). I believe that makes me 22-26-2 (46%) for the season. The lines are really, really good these days, and my overthinking does not make for good picks.
That wasn’t the right tone to strike, was it? BEST BETS HERE. GET YOUR SLAM-DUNK BEST BETS. ONE-HUNDRED PERCENT GUARANTEE.
Old Dominion at Liberty (-13.5) (1 p.m., ESPN+). SP+ projection: Liberty by 18.4. ODU’s 6-3 against the spread, Liberty’s 7-2 and both teams have overachieved against both spread and SP+ projections by similar amounts. In theory, that means the projections should be pretty accurate, yeah?
UConn at James Madison (-24.5) (2 p.m., ESPN+). SP+ projection: JMU by 31.6. This line sank by 2.5 points after it was announced that JMU star defensive end Jalen Green was lost for the season with injury, but here’s the deal: JMU’s got at least two other plus pass rushers, and, well, you don’t need a pass rush to shut down the Huskies’ passing game.
Baylor at No. 25 Kansas State (-20.5) (3 p.m., ESPN+). SP+ projection: KSU by 22.0. K-State has overachieved against projections in seven of nine games, and Baylor has underachieved in six. K-State is 7-2 against the spread, and Baylor is 2-6-1. SP+ likes K-State more than the sportsbooks, and that screams “PICK K-STATE!” to me.
Rutgers at No. 22 Iowa (-1.5) (3:30 p.m., BTN). SP+ projection: Iowa by 7.1. Total points in the past four Iowa games: 34, 21, 22 and 17. The over-under for this one is an ungodly 28.5, as low as you’ll ever see, and even with a dreadfully banged-up offense, Iowa Iowas better than Rutgers could ever hope to Iowa.
West Virginia at No. 16 Oklahoma (-13) (7 p.m., Fox). SP+ projection: OU by 16.1. It feels like this is a regression-toward-the-mean game. WVU has dramatically exceeded projections for the past two weeks, and OU has dramatically underachieved for three, but OU’s defense is equal to WVU’s offense and OU’s O is far better than the WVU D.
Week 11 playlist
Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.
Friday evening
North Texas at SMU (9 p.m., ESPN2). SMU lurks as a potential contender for the Group of Five’s New Year’s Six bid — Tulane leads the way, but the Mustangs are 5-0 in the AAC and on a collision course for an AAC championship matchup with the Green Wave. Winner’s in, maybe? Especially if Liberty loses a game at some point?
Current line: SMU -17 (up from -16) | SP+ projection: SMU by 18.7 | FPI projection: SMU by 27.2
Wyoming at UNLV (10:30 p.m., FS1). UNLV remains one of the season’s most impressive upstart stories; the Rebels are 7-2 and still have a 7% chance of winning the Mountain West, per SP+. Wyoming, meanwhile, remains an anti-social hammer looking for a nail. This is perfect Friday night content.
Current line: UNLV -5.5 (up from -4) | SP+ projection: UNLV by 7.0 | FPI projection: UNLV by 5.8
Early Saturday
No. 8 Alabama at Kentucky (noon, ESPN). This is Alabama’s first trip to Lexington in a decade, and it feels like a game Kentucky can ugly up and make interesting for three quarters. The Wildcats are better than their 6-3 record, but we’ll see if they’re good enough to scare the Tide.
Current line: Bama -10.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 7.7 | FPI projection: Bama by 16.1
Georgia Tech at Clemson (noon, ABC). The last time Georgia Tech beat Clemson was in 2014, when Paul Johnson’s option-loving Yellow Jackets romped, 28-6. The Tigers responded by winning 37 of their next 39 games. This time around, it’s just two 5-4 teams looking to lock up bowl eligibility. But Clemson’s still quite a bit better.
Current line: Clemson -14 (down from -15) | SP+ projection: Clemson by 15.8 | FPI projection: Clemson by 12.7
Tulsa at No. 23 Tulane (noon, ESPN2). Tulane returns home after a wobbly pair of road games. Luckily Tulsa … isn’t good. The Wave should cruise.
Current line: Tulane -23 | SP+ projection: Tulane by 22.2 | FPI projection: Tulane by 22.3
Old Dominion at Liberty (1 p.m., ESPN+). I put my faith in Liberty in the best bets section, but ODU has a terrifically explosive offense, and big plays introduce variance and make upset bids plausible. We’ll see if the Flames can keep the Monarchs tamped down.
Current line: Liberty by 13.5 | SP+ projection: Liberty by 18.4 | FPI projection: Liberty by 14.8
Saturday afternoon
No. 21 Arizona at Colorado (2 p.m., Pac-12). Arizona is one of the hottest teams in the country. Colorado has lost five of six. Find a time machine, go back to Week 3 and try to explain that to your two-months younger self. (And since you’re there, give yourself a lot of favorable bets to place, too.)
Current line: Arizona -10.5 (up from -8.5) | SP+ projection: Arizona by 11.0 | FPI projection: Arizona by 7.8
Rutgers at No. 22 Iowa (3:30 p.m., BTN). How low can Iowa make the point total go? Fourteen points? Twelve? Eight? Three?
Current line: Iowa -1.5 | SP+ projection: Iowa by 7.1 | FPI projection: Iowa by 4.4
NC State at Wake Forest (2 p.m., The CW). Dave Doeren has quietly put together one of his most impressive coaching jobs in Raleigh. NC State has taken on a schedule with five opponents ranked 32nd or better in SP+ but is 6-3 despite having one of the most inefficient and inconsistent offenses in the country.
Current line: NC State -2.5 | SP+ projection: NC State by 2.8 | FPI projection: NC State by 1.5
Saturday evening
Florida at No. 19 LSU (7:30 p.m., SECN). The series is tied at 33-33-3, and eight of the past nine games have been decided by one score. This has silliness written all over it, and I’ll be disappointed if the niggling fact that LSU is a much better team gets in the way of said silliness.
Current line: LSU -13.5 | SP+ projection: LSU by 12.6 | FPI projection: LSU by 17.3
No. 7 Texas at TCU (7:30 p.m., ABC). It’s safe to say that Texas is going to get TCU’s best shot Saturday. The Horned Frogs would like nothing more than to ruin the Horns’ CFP hopes. Unfortunately, Texas is much, much better than TCU this year.
Current line: Texas -10 | SP+ projection: Texas by 10.9 | FPI projection: Texas by 10.9
Duke at No. 24 North Carolina (8 p.m., ACCN). Good on Duke for figuring out a way past Wake Forest with its third-string QB last week. It would be a much bigger accomplishment pulling that off in Chapel Hill against Drake Maye and company, however.
Current line: UNC -14.5 (up from -10.5) | SP+ projection: UNC by 8.5 | FPI projection: UNC by 4.6
Stanford at No. 12 Oregon State (5:30 p.m., Pac-12). Despite losses to Washington State and Arizona, everything’s on the table for Oregon State in the Pac-12 race. The Beavers and their dynamic run game get shots at Washington and Oregon to finish the season. But they can’t blow it against a feisty but limited Stanford team.
Current line: OSU -21 | SP+ projection: OSU by 28.4 | FPI projection: OSU by 24.9
Michigan State at No. 1 Ohio State (7:30 p.m., NBC). It felt weird not giving the No. 1 team a bigger preview in one of the sections above, but … well … those spaces are for the games with some level of doubt. An MSU win in this one would be even more surprising than the Spartans’ famous 1998 upset in Columbus.
Current line: Buckeyes -31.5 (up from -30.5) | SP+ projection: Buckeyes by 30.4 | FPI projection: Buckeyes by 33.6
Rice at UTSA (7:30 p.m., ESPNU). Rice lost to the two AAC favorites, Tulane and SMU, by a combined six points the past two weeks. Now comes a shot at the No. 3 favorite, a UTSA team that has won five in a row after a rocky start. Can the Owls actually seal the deal on one of these upsets?
Current line: UTSA -14.5 (up from -13) | SP+ projection: UTSA by 13.3 | FPI projection: UTSA by 7.1
Late Saturday
Arizona State at UCLA (9 p.m., Pac-12). USC-Oregon is the main event late Saturday night, but this one’s a solid alternative in commercial breaks. ASU was getting somewhere defensively before collapsing last week; can the Sun Devils rally to scare a speedy but inconsistent Bruins team?
Current line: UCLA -17 | SP+ projection: UCLA by 22.9 | FPI projection: UCLA by 20.2
Smaller-school showcase
Let’s once again save a shout-out for the glorious lower levels of the sport. The most interesting game of the smaller-school weekend might be the Hawkins Bowl — Dan Hawkins’ UC Davis at son Cody’s Idaho State (6 p.m., ESPN+) — but here are three other games you should track.
D2: No. 16 Davenport at No. 2 Grand Valley State (1 p.m., FloSports). With the playoffs fast approaching, the last week of the regular season doesn’t feature too many big-time matchups. But this one gives us a chance to check in on GVSU, the best team in D2 (per SP+), and Davenport, with running back Myren Harris and a loss only to mighty Ferris State, is interesting enough to make the Lakers sweat for a bit. SP+ projection: GVSU by 23.5.
FCS: No. 12 North Dakota at No. 6 South Dakota (2 p.m., ESPN+). South Dakota has held five opponents to seven or fewer points and ranks eighth in FCS defensive SP+. North Dakota has veteran quarterback Tommy Schuster and the No. 10 offense. When I say home field gives USD the slightest of edges, I mean the SLIGHTEST of edges. Look at the projected margin! SP+ projection: South Dakota by 0.03.
FCS: No. 15 Southern Illinois at No. 13 North Dakota State (3:30 p.m., ESPN+). This might be the biggest regular-season game for NDSU in years. The Bison are 6-3 after getting pasted by South Dakota State last week, and there are only so many at-large playoff bids to give away. Another loss might knock the nine-time national champs out of the playoff hunt. SP+ projection: NDSU by 12.1
