Miami Football Game Preview: Week Nine vs. Virginia

Miami returns to Hard Rock Stadium this week, hosting Virginia, in hopes of securing its second conference win. Miami pulled out a thrilling 28-20 come-from-behind double-overtime victory last week against Clemson, and look to continue momentum in the final stretch of the season.

The Hurricanes equaled last year’s win total, and Miami (5-2) can become bowl-eligible with a win over the Cavaliers (2-5) Saturday evening.

When: Saturday, October 28th

Time: 3:30 PM Eastern

Where to Watch: ACC Network

Line: Miami – 19

Moneyline: Miami -1100 | Virginia +700

Over/Under: 47.5

– Miami (FL) has gone 4-2-0 ATS this season.

– The Hurricanes have covered the spread once this season (1-1 ATS) when playing as at least 18.5-point favorites.

– Miami (FL) has gone over in four of its six games with a set total (66.7%).

– Miami (FL) has won two of the three games it was the moneyline favorite this season (66.7%).

– Miami (FL) has played as a moneyline favorite of -1100 or shorter in only two games this season, and it split 1-1.

– Virginia is 5-2-0 against the spread this season.

– The Cavaliers have covered the spread once this year (1-1 ATS) when playing as at least 18.5-point underdogs.

– The teams have hit the over in four of Virginia’s seven games with a set total.

– Virginia has won one of the six games it has played as an underdog this season.

– This season, Virginia has won one of its two games when it is the underdog by at least +700 on the moneyline.

Malik Washington, Wide Receiver

Malik Washington ranks 8th in all-purpose yards in the country, averaging 142.9 yards per game (receiving, rushing, kick return). He leads the team in receiving with 56 receptions for 783 yards and six touchdowns this season. His score proved to be the game-winner in the 31-27 win over the Tar Heels.

Last week, he totaled 12 receptions for 115 yards and a touchdown. The next receiver, Sackett Wood Jr., had three receptions for 62 yards.

Perris Jones, and Mike Hollins Running Backs

This is a true running back by committee by the Cavaliers. Last week, UVA had three running backs (Perris Jones, Mike Hollins, and Kobe Pace) with double-digit carries.

Jones is a shifty runner who pops big runs quickly. Last season, he totaled 422 all-purpose yards and has 302 rushing yards this season, averaging 5.2 per carry. He rushed for a season-high 134 yards against William & Mary, averaging 11.4 per carry.

Hollins scored three touchdowns last week against UNC and rushed for a season-high 66 yards. He is more of a compact runner (5’9,” 204 pounds), but makes jump cuts to make defenders miss in small spaces.

Tony Muskett, Quarterback

Tony Muskett injured his non-throwing shoulder in the season-opening 49-13 loss against Tennessee, an injury that will require surgery at the end of the season. Virginia has run several designed runs for the mobile quarterback despite the injury. Muskett had 12 carries for 66 yards in the win over UNC, ranking first on the team in yards per attempt at 5.5.

When it comes to throwing the ball, Muskett is a game manager who takes what the defense gives him. He has three straight 200-yard performances since returning from injury.

Muskett, a transfer from Monmouth, returned to the field against Boston College three games ago, and the Cavs are 2-1 since his return.

Jonas Sanker, Safety

The leading tackler for the Cavaliers is first in the ACC in solo tackles with 43. Jonas Sanker is a hard-hitting safety who helps in run support and is a threat in pass defense. He has two forced fumbles, six passes defended, and 60 total tackles on the year.

Last season, he finished with 63 tackles, one interception, and one forced fumble.

James Jackson, Linebacker

The junior from Roanoke, VA, has been productive this season, registering 49 total tackles, two for loss, one sack, three passes defended, and an interception.

James Jackson earned ACC linebacker of the week for his performance against UNC. Jackson made the game-sealing interception after Paul Akere hit QB Drake Maye from behind as he released the ball. He also posted six tackles and two quarterback hurries.

Starting Quarterback Tyler Van Dyke sat out last week’s game against Clemson due to a leg injury. Despite communication from coaches that “TVD” would play last week, he was a game-time decision and a last-minute scratch.

True freshman Emory Williams made his first collegiate start and put together a sufficient performance – 24/33, 151 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT.

If Tyler Van Dyke is healthy, he obviously gets the start in this game, but if he has another setback similar to last week, it would not be surprising if Williams trots onto the field for his second start.

Williams proved he could manage the team to a win, helping it come from behind against a legitimate opponent in Clemson. Virginia has confirmed it can match its competition with its win over previously undefeated UNC last week.

Miami does not want to put Van Dyke in a situation where he is rushed back onto the field too soon and suffers another injury to keep him off the field for future games. Williams could be a safe bet.

Van Dyke ranks 9th in the nation in passing efficiency (171.78).

Miami has been dominant up front. The Hurricanes rank 7th in the nation in rushing defense (79.6 yards per game) and 22nd in rushing offense (193.9 per game).

The Canes are among the top teams in sacks allowed, ranking 16th at 1.14 per game, and Miami also ranks 7th in the nation (1st in ACC) in creating pressure, according to Pro Football Focus.

On the flip side, Virginia ranks 104th in rushing defense (172.1 per game), 103rd in rushing offense (117.9 per game), 115th in sacks allowed (3.43), and 114th in creating pressure, according to PFF.

If numbers indicate what will happen on the field, Miami should continue its dominance in the trenches, but stranger things have happened.

Miami produced three turnovers against Clemson, which proved essential in the game’s outcome. Miami is now -1 in turnover margin.

Virginia is -4 in turnover margin but got a game-sealing interception to hold on against UNC. In fact, if it weren’t for two turnovers in the end zone by UVA, the Cavaliers probably walk away with a comfortable victory in Chapel Hill. This is a game where it might be more important for Miami to protect the football than to take away the football.

Virginia dominated North Carolina in time of possession – 37:04 – 22:04, and it can be assumed that the Cavs will try to do the same against the Hurricanes. Similarly, Miami dominated the clock against Clemson – 37:30 – 22:30. Ball control will be critical in this game.

In Miami’s game against Georgia Tech, three interceptions gave the Yellow Jackets life, ultimately leading to an upset win. Virginia will need those breaks to win at Hard Rock Stadium Saturday evening.

The mental focus will be essential for Miami to come out with a second straight win against Virginia. The Cavs win over the Heels last week has undoubtedly elevated concern for the Hurricanes. The pain of the Georiga Tech loss and UNC certainly adds to Miami’s focus.

Miami should impose its will upfront and should lead at halftime. It is expected that this will be a close game, given that each of the last five games between the two schools have been decided by eight points or less.

But Miami’s advantage in the trenches should allow the Hurricanes to pull away in the second half. The only way Miami loses against Virginia is if it beats itself.