Lionel Messi, Inter Miami’s postseason chances

August 25, 2023September 13, 2023 Admin

Lionel Messi has played 11 games for Inter Miami, and has yet to experience defeat with his new team.

Miami will need to keep collecting wins if it has any chance of reaching the MLS playoffs and competing for what could be a third trophy this season.

Messi won Leagues Cup with Inter Miami, collecting a record-setting 44th trophy. And he’s in contention for a 45th trophy as Inter Miami has advanced to the final of the Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup.

What would be the chances for Messi and Inter Miami to go after the MLS Cup trophy, too?

Well, that’s more complicated. Messi and Inter Miami got their late-season playoff push off on the right foot before the Sept. 4-12 FIFA international window. Inter Miami then managed to pull out a 3-2 victory over Sporting Kansas City without Messi (and few other notable players) on Saturday. Since its Leagues Cup triumph, Miami has collected 10 points in four games. The playoff push for Inter Miami is off to a roaring start, with eight MLS regular-season games left to play.

Inter Miami’s next game is Saturday at Atlanta United, with Messi’s status for that game to be determined after the September international window. Messi scored a goal for Argentina in a 2026 World Cup qualifier against Ecuador on Thursday, but was not in the 18 for Argentina’s World Cup qualifier against Bolivia on Tuesday.

Inter Miami coach Tata Martino said that Messi will “miss at least three games” as the team attempts the daunting task of making the MLS postseason field.

What games will Messi miss for Miami?

There are two FIFA international match windows in the thick of the MLS playoff race: Sept. 4-12 and Oct. 9-17. Argentina is scheduled to play 2026 World Cup qualifiers on Sept. 7 (vs. Ecuador), Sept. 12 (vs. Bolivia), Oct. 12 (vs. Paraguay) and Oct. 17 (vs. Peru).

Messi missed Inter Miami’s game against Sporting Kansas City on Sept. 9. Other games that Messi could miss include: Sept. 16 at Atlanta United, Oct. 7 vs. FC Cincinnati and Oct. 18 vs. Charlotte FC. The MLS regular season ends on Oct. 21.

How many teams make the MLS playoffs?

A total of 18 teams will make the MLS postseason field, the top nine finishers in each conference.

What is the probability of Inter Miami making the MLS playoffs?

Improving.

Inter Miami dug a massive hole for itself in the pre-Messi era, putting itself dead last in the Eastern Conference. Recent results have pulled Miami out of the cellar and provided some hope for a push toward the playoffs. Inter Miami now owns 28 points through 26 games played, and is six points behind the ninth-place team, D.C. United. Most of the teams ahead of Miami in the standings, however, have played at least one more game, so having games in hand helps the cause.

During the 2022 season, the ninth-place finisher in the Eastern Conference had 42 points; in 2021 the ninth-place team had 47 points.

Just to be safe, let’s say Inter Miami needs to get to that 47-point benchmark to have any chance to make the postseason. That would mean averaging 2.4 points a game, winning at least six of the final eight games. Any loss, however, would be devastating.

Is there precedent for MLS teams making playoffs after slow starts?

There is good news for Inter Miami. Several teams have overcome horrid first halves to make the postseason.

The most similar comparison for Inter Miami would be D.C. United in 2018, which produced just 17 points in 18 games played prior to the MLS All-Star break. Galvanized by the midseason arrival of Wayne Rooney, D.C. United earned 34 points in its final 16 games to reach the playoffs. That same season, the Seattle Sounders were 7-9-5 before going 11-2 to close out the season and make the playoffs.

Who does Inter Miami play?

Atlanta United at Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Sept. 16): Eight points clear of the playoff line, Atlanta is in a good position to reach the postseason. Inter Miami and Atlanta United met in Leagues Cup group play, with Messi scoring twice in a lopsided 4-0 win. This one will be in Atlanta, however, where the Five Stripes own a 7-2-3 record in league play.

Toronto FC at DRV PNK Stadium (Sept. 20): Toronto’s 2023 season has been an absolute mess. A brutal start to the season — and reports of internal discord — resulted in the firing of former USMNT coach Bob Bradley. At the time of Bradley’s firing, Toronto FC had the league’s highest payroll, and only the pre-Messi ineptitude of Inter Miami kept Toronto from occupying the Eastern Conference cellar. Firing Bradley hasn’t meant better results, however, as Toronto had lost 10 straight in all competitions before finally breaking through with a win on Aug. 30.

Orlando City SC at Exploria Stadium (Sept. 24): Inter Miami eliminated Orlando during the Round of 32 in the Leagues Cup, thanks to two Messi goals. Orlando has been one of the Eastern Conference’s top teams this season, currently sitting in third place. A must-win for Miami, coupled with Orlando vying for prime playoff positioning, could give this burgeoning rivalry another boost.

New York City FC at DRV PNK Stadium (Sept. 30): Like their crosstown rivals the New York Red Bulls, NYCFC is on the outside looking in on the Eastern Conference playoff picture. NYCFC has made each postseason field since 2016, a streak that is in danger of ending.

Chicago Fire FC at Soldier Field (Oct. 4): Once one of MLS’s best teams, Chicago has fallen on hard times. It has made the playoffs just twice in the last 13 seasons. Chicago currently is hanging on to the 10th spot in the Eastern Conference.

Charlotte FC at DRV PNK Stadium (Oct. 18) and at Bank of America Stadium (Oct. 21): The two teams met in the quarterfinals of the Leagues Cup (a 4-0 Miami win), necessitating a postponement of the originally scheduled Aug. 20 matchup (that has been rescheduled for Oct. 18). Charlotte is in a similar position as Miami in the Eastern Conference race, desperately needing results to make the playoff field.