Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions

The Philadelphia Phillies (57-49) and Miami Marlins (57-50) clash Tuesday in the 2nd game of a 4-game NL East set. First pitch at loanDepot park is slated for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Miami leads 4-3

Miami dropped Monday’s series opener 4-2 and is just 4-11 so far in the 2nd half. The Marlins were 0-for-4 Monday with runners in scoring position and have zero hits in such situations over their last 3 losses.

The Phillies had been struggling on the road before Monday’s triumph. They had won just twice over 8 road tilts from July 8-30. With Monday’s victory, the Phils vaulted past the Fish and into 2nd place in the NL East standings, although both clubs are still more than 10 games behind the front-running Atlanta Braves.

Phillies at Marlins projected starters

LHP Ranger Suarez vs. RHP Sandy Alcantara

Suarez (2-5, 4.22 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.39 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 through 79 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 6-4 home win vs. Baltimore Orioles Wednesday
• 2023 road stats: 2-3, 2.95 ERA in 42 2/3 IP (2.65 ERA since 2021)
• Last 5 starts vs. Marlins: 3-1, 1.63 ERA (2021-23)
• Notched a 6.11 ERA and 1.75 WHIP across 5 July starts

Alcantara (4-9, 4.46 ERA) is making his 22nd start. He’s logged a 1.24 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 through 135 1/3 IP.

• Last start: Win, 9 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 7 K in 7-1 road win at Tampa Bay Rays Wednesday
• 2023 home stats: 1-4, 4.48 ERA in 60 1/3 IP
• Last 5 starts vs. Phillies: 0-3, 5.46 ERA in 31 1/3 IP
• Logged a 3.31 ERA with 30 K and 6 BB over 33 innings across 5 starts in July

Phillies at Marlins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:18 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline: Phillies +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Marlins -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-190) | Marlins -1.5 (+155)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Phillies at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 4, Phillies 3

Moneyline

The Marlins have been a solid fade play since the break, but facing a lefty puts them on their best side at the plate. And Alcantara, who logged a 1.64 home ERA in 2022 and a 2.41 home mark in 2021, may not be too far off from the overall form he showed from 2020-22 when he clocked a 2.74 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.

Miami has stark platoon splits: right-handers have held the Fish to a .698 OPS; lefties have been banged around to the tune of a .795 mark.

Alcantara had control problems early on and was not getting his typical big share of ground balls, but those issues have been cleaned up over recent starts and the results have been impressive. His 3.31 ERA in July included turns against the Atlanta Braves, Baltimore Orioles, St. Louis Cardinals and Tampa Bay Rays, all of which are above-average scoring clubs. That stretch also included a July 7 home start against these same Phillies. In that effort, Alcantara allowed 1 run over 6 2/3 innings with 5 K’s and 0 walks.

TAKE MIAMI (-130).

Run line/Against the spread

Both teams have played more 1-run games than average. With a low total, it’d be best to AVOID the Marlins on the Run Line.

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Over/Under

Fairly priced for a couple of 2nd-division offenses and a decent pitching match-up in a pitcher’s yard. PASS.

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