The Heat Aren’t a Lock to Land Damian Lillard

Time’s up for Damian Lillard in Portland. On Saturday, reports dropped indicating that Dame has requested a trade from the Trail Blazers. In 11 seasons with the franchise, he’s been named to seven All-Star teams, made seven All-NBA teams, and earned a spot on the NBA 75. Lillard averaged 32.2 points per game on 64.5 percent true shooting last season, so even now he still is performing at a prime level. But Dame no longer believes the Blazers can offer him the best chance at winning a championship.

Lillard wants to go to the Miami Heat to compete for a title with Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler. Will Dame end up where he wants? Miami’s best offer could look something like this:

Heat Receive:

Damian Lillard
Jusuf Nurkic

Blazers Receive:

Tyler Herro
Kyle Lowry
Jaime Jaquez Jr.
Nikola Jovic
2028 first-round pick
2029 pick swap
2030 first-round pick

This would go down as one of the worst trades in NBA history. There’s no big lump of draft picks like the Nets received for Kevin Durant or the Jazz did for Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert, and no key young players like the Pelicans got for Anthony Davis or the Thunder got for Paul George.

If Portland’s game plan is to appease Lillard rather than build a solid foundation for his successor, Scoot Henderson, then by all means, accept Miami’s best offer. But if the Blazers take the deal, then Pat Riley should be wearing a ski mask and driving a getaway car, because it would be grand larceny on a scale that even Danny Ocean would admire.

Fortunately for Blazers fans, it appears that general manager Joe Cronin has his head screwed on properly after making this statement to media members: “We have been clear that we want Dame here but he notified us today he wants out and he’d prefer to play someplace else. What has not changed for us is that we’re committed to winning, and we are going to do what’s best for the team in pursuit of that goal.”

ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski says front offices talking with Portland believe the franchise is looking for a star-level package. There is naturally a desire to do right by a franchise legend, but Lillard doesn’t have a no-trade clause and the Blazers can’t let emotions guide their decision-making if honoring Lillard’s preference isn’t what’s best for the team’s future.

I can already hear Miami fans crying about Herro, who’s only 23 and has averaged over 20 points in consecutive seasons. But he’s a liability on defense, been a dud on offense in the playoffs ever since the bubble, and is owed $120 million over the next four years. The Blazers don’t need another score-first guard who plays iffy defense, with Anfernee Simons already signed to a similar contract and former lottery pick Shaedon Sharpe poised to assume a bigger role in his second year.

Herro is redundant for Portland. And there are already signs the Blazers feel the same way. Chris Haynes said on NBA TV that Miami would likely need a third team to acquire Lillard, and that third team could be Brooklyn. Some of Herro’s flaws would be mitigated on the Nets considering they’re loaded with rangey wing defenders and have a need for a scorer in his mold. And Portland could receive more draft compensation in addition to a salary filler…such as Ben Simmons? As disappointing as Simmons has been in recent seasons, he’ll be only 27 next year and has just two years remaining on his contract. Simmons is the type of upside piece that could appeal to Portland if other picks are added. While Miami would still get off with a robbery value-wise, it’d make more sense for the Blazers so a deal along these lines could be a necessity if Lillard wants to be dropping dimes on South Beach.

Still, other teams will compete for Lillard. Though he’ll be 33 years old next season and has four years with $216 million remaining on his contract, the length of his deal could encourage a team to trade for him even if they aren’t on his list. As I detailed last month, his age, price, and the sheer number of teams that already have primary ball handlers limits the number of teams that would want him. But The Athletic’s Sam Amick reports the Clippers, Jazz, and Sixers have interest. The Blazers should be able to get more than what the Heat can offer, as long as those other teams are willing to play ball.

With all that in mind, let’s breeze through eight other theoretical Dame destinations, ranked in order of how aggressive I think they should be in pursuing a trade for Lillard:

1. Sixers: Daryl Morey can compete with Miami’s offer with a future first, a swap, Tyrese Maxey, and expiring salaries. Like Herro, Maxey is a repetitive piece for Portland, but he’s a better player and still on his rookie deal. If Morey could flip James Harden to the Clippers for additional assets, as Woj suggested is a possibility, then it would strengthen Philly’s offer.

2. Celtics: Though Lillard reportedly doesn’t want to play for the Celtics, they could offer up to three firsts and one swap with Malcolm Brogdon, Robert Williams, Payton Pritchard, Luke Kornet, and Justin Champagnie. Williams could be the Blazers’ center of the future, a position of need for the team. If Boston wants Dame, his buddy Jayson Tatum should be recruiting him hard right about now.

3. Clippers: Rather than go for James Harden, could the Clippers turn toward Dame? They have only two distant future firsts available to trade (and a swap), but those are high-value picks considering how old the team would be by then. Terrence Mann would be a good, young player to include. But this offer isn’t better on paper than what the Heat could give up.

4. Nets: Lillard has already said he’d be happy to be traded to Brooklyn because of his friendship with Mikal Bridges. If the Nets wanted Lillard instead of Herro, they could offer all of their own firsts from 2028 through 2030, plus Suns firsts in 2025, 2027, and 2029 and a swap in 2028, and a Mavericks first in 2029. With a ton of high-value picks and additional young players to include, the Nets can easily exceed Miami’s best offer.

5. Jazz: Danny Ainge has always swung for the fences to acquire stars and has just about everything you’d need in Utah except that centerpiece. Is Lillard the player to swing on? With Lauri Markkanen winning Most Improved Player and Walker Kessler looking like a future Defensive Player of the Year candidate, the frontcourt pieces are already there. Following a great draft class, the Jazz have plenty of picks to trade and some young talent if Ainge is ready to go for it.

6. Spurs: It’s worth mentioning San Antonio after ESPN’s Ramona Shelburne hinted they’re a sleeper for him since Lillard has “deep respect” for the organization. The Spurs have all of their own firsts, plus future firsts from the Bulls, Celtics, Hawks, Hornets, and Raptors. Some are unprotected; some are protected. But with those picks and a group of young players, San Antonio has more than enough to get Dame and make another big move to accelerate the timeline around Victor Wembanyama.

7. Pelicans: The Pelicans and Blazers front offices were already in dialogue regarding the third pick but ultimately couldn’t come to a deal. Could those talks now pivot to Dame? We already know the Pelicans have several future firsts and young players to dangle. Would they give up Zion Williamson? Brandon Ingram? I’m doubtful, and we already know the limited upside of a Lillard–CJ McCollum core from their years together in Portland. Still, the Pelicans’ recent history of flirting with trades for other stars—such as KD—is enough to put them here.

8. Raptors: Years ago, the Raptors scooped Kawhi Leonard with only one year remaining on his contract and then won a championship. What’s stopping them from tossing three firsts, a swap, OG Anunoby, and some other filler at Portland? Lillard would be a dream fit next to Pascal Siakam, Scottie Barnes, and the newly re-signed Jakob Poeltl.

Any of these teams can compete with Miami’s best offer if they want to, so the Blazers have options to explore. Lillard himself should take a hard look at some of these other situations if his ultimate goal is indeed to compete for a title. Portland appears ready to take the best offer available, so Lillard may learn a valuable life lesson: You can’t always get what you want. But if you try sometimes you just might find you get what you need.