Miami Heat at Denver Nuggets Game 2 odds, picks and predictions

June 4, 2023 Admin

The Miami Heat and Denver Nuggets meet Sunday for Game 2 of the NBA Finals. Tip-off from Ball Arena is set for 8 p.m. ET (ABC). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Heat vs. Nuggets odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

Denver took the series opener 104-93 as a 9-point home favorite Thursday. The Heat struggled and didn’t play the way you’d expect them to. They only shot 2 free throws, setting an NBA record for fewest attempts in a playoff game.

Miami F Jimmy Butler finished with 13 points on 14 shots, numbers that the Heat will desperately need to see increase if they want a chance to win this series.

Throughout the playoffs the storyline surrounding Miami has been the productivity of their role players, but the Heat didn’t see that same productivity Thursday. F Caleb Martin, G/F Max Strus, and F Duncan Robinson combined for 6 points on 2-of-23 shooting from the floor — after averaging 33.7 points per game (PPG) in the first 18 playoff games.

Denver continued its dominance at home in these playoffs, improving to 9-0 with Thursday’s victory. C Nikola Jokic (27 points, 14 rebounds and 10 assists) became the 2nd player in NBA history to record a triple-double in his Finals debut — joining Jason Kidd (2002).

Jokic wasn’t the only shining star for Denver. G Jamal Murray (26 points) and F Aaron Gordon (16 points) combined for 42 points and both shot as least 50% from the floor.

Heat at Nuggets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:41 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Heat+290 (bet $100 to win $290) | Nuggets -375 (bet $375 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Heat +8.5 (-110) | Nuggets -8.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 215.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Heat at Nuggets key injuries

Heat

F Caleb Martin (illness) questionable

Nuggets

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Heat at Nuggets picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 105, Nuggets 103

Moneyline

BACK MIAMI (+290) with a small wager.

Look for Butler to have a better game and Miami’s role players to be more productive — just like they’ve been throughout the playoffs. The Heat’s 11-0 run to start the 4th-quarter Thursday showed me that they have fight in them and they can score on this Nuggets defense. Unfortunately for the Heat, it was too big a hole to climb out of — they trailed by 21 after 3 quarters..

If you don’t agree and feel strongly about Denver winning Game 2, the -375 price is way too steep. You don’t want to risk 3.75 times your potential profit.

Against the spread

BET MIAMI +8.5 (-110).

The suggestion is to DIVVY UP 1.5 UNITS between the Miami moneyline (+290) and this +8.5 spread.

The safer play is obviously taking the 8.5 points, but it would be nice to score a little bit on a Miami (+290) ML win.

Even if my predicted Heat win is wrong, you have to expect them to put up a good fight and make it a close game.

However, the Nuggets have been dominant ATS vs. the Heat, posting a 26-9 ATS record in the last 35 meetings (per Covers.com).

Including Thursday’s Game 1, Denver is 3-0 straight-up and ATS against Miami this season.

The Nuggets won 112-108 in Miami as 1-point favorites Feb. 13, and won 124-119 as 4-point home favorites Dec. 30.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 215.5 (-105).

The Nuggets and Heat rank 1-2 in PPG allowed in the playoffs. Denver is surrendering 107.1 PPG in the playoffs; Miami is yielding 107.3 PPG.

The Under is 5-0 in the Heat’s last 5 games and 5-0 in their last 5 following a loss.

For Denver, the Under is 4-1 in its last 5 home games.

If you believe in “specific day” trends, the Under is 4-1-1 in the Nuggets’ last 6 Sunday contests.

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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