Housing Market Experienced Home Price Gain Drop in October

The latest October 2022 data results for S&P Dow Jones Indices’ (S&P DJI) S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices show that home price gains declined across the United States. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 9.2% annual gain in October, down from 10.7% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 8.0%, down from 9.6% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted an 8.6% year-over-year gain, down from 10.4% in the previous month.

“October 2022 marked the fourth consecutive month of declining home prices in the U.S.,” says Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI. “For example, the National Composite Index fell -0.5 percent for the month, reflecting a -3.0 percent decline since the market peaked in June 2022. We saw comparable patterns in our 10- and 20-City Composites, both of which stand -4.6 percent below their June peaks after October declines of -0.7 percent and -0.8 percent, respectively. These declines, of course, came after very strong price increases in late 2021 and the first half of 2022. Despite its recent weakness, on a year-over-year basis the National Composite gained 9.2 percent, which is in the top quintile of historical performance levels.”

Miami, Tampa and Charlotte reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in October. Miami led the way with a 21% year-over-year price increase, followed by Tampa in second with a 20.5% increase, and Charlotte in third with a 15% increase. All 20 cities reported lower price increases in the year ending October 2022 versus the year ending September 2022.

“Despite considerable regional differences, all 20 cities in our October report reflect these trends of short-term decline and medium-term deceleration,” Lazzara continues. “Prices declined in every city in October, with a median change of -0.9 percent. Year-over-year price gains in all 20 cities were lower in October than they had been in September; the median year-over-year increase across the 20 cities was 8.3 percent.”

Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a -0.5% month-over-month decrease in October, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted decreases of -0.7% and -0.8%, respectively.

“October’s best-performing cities were Miami (+21.0 percent year-over-year) and Tampa (+20.5 percent), with Charlotte (+15.0 percent) edging Atlanta (+14.9 percent) for third place. The Southeast (+17.9 percent) and South (+17.0 percent) were the strongest regions by far, with gains more than double those of the Northeast, Midwest and West. The two weakest performers were San Francisco (up only +0.6 percent year-over-year) and Seattle (+4.5 percent). San Francisco and Seattle peaked in May 2022, and both have declined by more than -10 percent since then.”

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month decrease of -0.3%, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted decreases of -0.5%.

In October, all 20 cities reported declines before and after seasonal adjustments.

“As the Federal Reserve continues to move interest rates higher, mortgage financing continues to be a headwind for home prices,” Lazzara concludes. “Given the continuing prospects for a challenging macroeconomic environment, prices may well continue to weaken.”

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