Miami Dolphins Playoff Fate Could Be Determined After Week 17
The Miami Dolphins still hold a playoff position despite their current three-game losing streak, and their playoff outlook can go from one extreme to another depending on what happens in their next two games.
The Dolphins will next face the Green Bay Packers on Christmas Day, followed by a game against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium on New Year’s Day, and it’s possible they will have clinched a playoff berth by the end of Week 17 — before their Week 18 game against the New York Jets.
But here’s the crazy part: It’s also conceivable the Dolphins could be eliminated from playoff contention in Week 17.
THE CURRENT AFC PLAYOFF SEEDING
HOW THE DOLPHINS COULD CLINCH A PLAYOFF SPOT IN WEEK 17
This is very simple, and it starts with the Dolphins defeating both the Packers and Patriots to move to 10-6 on the season, assuring them of no worse than a 10-7 finish.
The only other thing that would need to happen would be for the New York Jets to lose one of their next two games, at home against Jacksonville on Thursday night or at Seattle in Week 17.
Under this scenario, the Dolphins would be assured of being among the wild cards with at least 10 wins because the Patriots and Jets would then have at least eight losses.
HOW THE DOLPHINS COULD BE ELIMINATED IN WEEK 17
So is crazy to think about, particularly after the Dolphins were 8-3 not so long ago, but in the interest of being thorough, here’s what the worst-case scenario would look like.
— It obviously starts with the Dolphins losing against Green Bay and New England, which would put them at 8-8.
— The Jets defeat both Jacksonville and Seattle.
— New England wins at home against the Cincinnati Bengals on Saturday.
— The Los Angeles Chargers win at Indianapolis on Monday night.
— The Baltimore Ravens win either one of their next two games, both at home, against the Atlanta Falcons and Pittsburgh Steelers.
Under that scenario, the Dolphins still could finish 9-8 with a victory against the Jets in Week 17 and could be involved in a tie for the final playoff spot or two with potentially the Jets, Patriots and Chargers.
Two of those four teams would join the AFC playoff field along with Buffalo, Kansas City and Cincinnati, who already at least 10 wins; Baltimore, which would get to 10 wins with one more victory; and the AFC South champion (Tennessee or Jacksonville).
And those two teams that would make the playoffs in the event of a four-way tie at 9-8 would be New England and the Chargers.
Even removing either the Patriots or Chargers from the equation with another win for either to finish 10-7 doesn’t help the Dolphins because they would lose the tiebreaker to whichever of the two was at 9-8.
In multiple-team tiebreaker scenarios, settling division tiebreakers always is the first step and the Patriots would get the nod by virtue of head-to-head record thanks to their sweep of the Jets (Dolphins-Patriots and Dolphins-Jets would be splits).
The Dolphins would finish higher than the Jets, but lose the tiebreaker against the Chargers for the final AFC playoff spot because of L.A.’s head-to-head victory at SoFi Stadium in Week 14.
Based on all the permutations, it’s much more likely the Dolphins would clinch in Week 17 than be eliminated, but maybe the biggest likelihood of all is that nothing will be decided until the final Sunday of the regular season.
