Target Total in Bahamas Bowl
Miami (OH) vs UAB Odds
What’s a better way to kick off bowl season than with sunny skies in a warm, tropical location? Bowl season gets underway Friday, as the Miami (OH) RedHawks take on the UAB Blazers.
Miami enters this game after a 6-6 season that left it fourth in the MAC East. The RedHawks finished the regular season 5-7 against the spread and went over in just three games.
UAB comes into this game following a 6-6 regular season and a third-place finish in the West Division of Conference USA. The Blazers went 4-8 against the spread and went over in six games.
As you’d expected for a game in the Bahamas, the weather will be nearly perfect during this game. Temperatures will be around 78 degrees, and there’s no precipitation forecasted. Winds range from 10.4-13.7 MPH, which could impact special teams and passing.
The RedHawks closed out their season with two wins to become bowl-eligible for the second straight season despite many offensive struggles.
Miami averages 20.2 points per game and 4.9 yards per play to go along with a 36% Success Rate and 3.29 points per opportunity.
One glaring problem for the offense is its 26% Havoc Allowed Rate, which ranks 130th nationally. It doesn’t help when the team plays at the 109th-slowest pace, running a play every 28.8 seconds.
Adding to these offensive concerns are key injuries. One of the RedHawks’ starting offensive linemen, Caleb Shaffer, entered the transfer portal and will not play.
Quarterback Brett Gabbert is also expected to miss this matchup after suffering what many thought to be a season-ending injury earlier in the season. Aveon Smith will now likely start this game in his place.
Smith completed just 48.7% of his passes this season for an average of 6.0 yards per attempt. As a team, Miami owns a 38% Passing Success Rate and averages just two passes over 20 yards per game.
Only Smith eclipsed 500 yards rushing during the season, but four players finished the regular season with more than 250 rushing yards. As a team, Miami has a 34% Rushing Success Rate and averages 4.6 rushes over 10 yards per game.
Up front, the offensive line generates an average of 2.77 Line Yards per attempt and has allowed a 21.8% Stuff Rate.
As you’d expect for a bowl-eligible team with Miami’s offensive struggles, the defense is very good. It has allowed 22.5 points per game and 5.4 yards per play while also giving up a 40% Success Rate and 3.1 points per opportunity.
Its 25% Havoc Rate ranks fourth nationally.
For this matchup, the stat to keep an eye on is the RedHawks’ 38% Rushing Success Rate Allowed. That mark ranks 22nd nationally and will be critical against a UAB offense that averages more than 40 rush attempts per game.
After starting the season 4-2, UAB struggled down the stretch but still finished its regular season with a win over Louisiana Tech.
The Blazers average 30.6 points per game and 6.8 yards per play with a 45% Success Rate and an average of 4.11 points per opportunity. The Blazers also allow Havoc on 16% of plays.
Due in large part to their preference to lean on the running game, they average 29.2 seconds per play, which ranks as the 119th pace of offense. Considering that Miami (OH) ranks 109th in pace, expect the clock to tick early and often.
UAB strongly prefers the run game behind star back DeWayne McBride. McBride has handled a heavy workload with 1,713 yards rushing and 19 touchdowns on the ground. However, reports surfaced Thursday afternoon that McBride is no longer expected to play.
Luckily for UAB, he’s not the only threat on the ground, as backup Jermaine Brown also managed to accumulate 832 yards on the ground and six touchdowns.
The Blazers average 40.8 rush attempts per game for an average of 6.0 yards per attempt, which ranks second in the country. As a team, UAB owns a 47% Rushing Success Rate behind an offensive line that has generated 3.36 Line Yards per attempt and allowed a 13.9% Stuff Rate.
That success on the ground has led to a decrease in passing numbers. The Blazers throw the ball 24.4 times per game on average, as their 38% passing rate ranks 124th in the country.
Quarterback Dylan Hopkins has completed 62.8% of his passes for an average of 8.9 yards per attempt. As a team, the Blazers own a 44% Passing Success Rate, and they average 2.67 20-plus yard passes per game.
On the other side of the ball, UAB allowed an average of 23.4 points per game and 5.4 yards per play while also giving up a 43% Success Rate and 3.23 points per opportunity.
The Blazers’ 18% Havoc Rate ranks 59th nationally, and they give up 4.5 20-yard plays per game.
Miami (OH) vs UAB Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Miami (OH) and UAB match up statistically:
Miami (OH) Offense vs. UAB Defense
UAB Offense vs. Miami (OH) Defense
Pace of Play / Other
| PFF Tackling | 92 | 6 |
| PFF Coverage | 75 | 2 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 38 | 97 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.8 (109) | 29.2 (119) |
| Rush Rate | 58.8% (25) | 62.6% (10) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Miami (OH) vs UAB Betting Pick
UAB enters as an 11-point favorite with the total sitting at just 45 points as of writing. The RedHawks are the sharps’ play, as 65% of tickets but 93% of the money has landed on the underdog.
As for the total, 97% of the money has come in on the over, which explains the line moving from an opening number of 44.5.
It may seem unwise to go against the line movement, but my preferred play is the under. Miami (OH) games have gone under 45 six times during the regular season, and this matchup appears primed for another low-scoring affair.
This matchup to open bowl season features two slow-paced teams — including one fairly inept offense — against defenses equipped to get them off of the field. That should keep scoring at a premium and keep the clock moving.
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