Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Prediction, Preview, and Odds
The Buffalo Bills will host the Miami Dolphins on Saturday night in an AFC East showdown. The Dolphins handed the Bills their first loss of the season, 21-19 in Miami on Sept. 25 as a four-point underdog. Buffalo had won seven straight head-to-head matchups before the loss in September, and Buffalo is 4-3-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.
The forecast on Saturday Night calls for heavy snow and a low of 26 degrees.
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How will Tua respond in the cold after two poor outings?
A win on Saturday would put the Dolphins just a game behind the Bills for first place, with the tiebreaker on their side. Miami will play its third straight road game after falling to the 49ers 33-17 and Chargers 23-17. They are now just 3-4 on the road straight-up and 2-5 against the spread.
Mind over matter? Dolphins HC Mike McDaniel wearing a “I wish it were colder” shirt. The team also cranked down the temp in their indoor practice facility as they get ready for Saturday night’s game in Buffalo. McDaniel also gives his thoughts on cracking the cold here. pic.twitter.com/60rlZB26LD
— Clay Ferraro (@ClayWPLG) December 14, 2022
Miami is second in the NFL averaging 277.9 passing yards per game, but their quarterback Tua Tagovailoa struggled tremendously in Sunday’s loss to the Chargers. Tua went 10 for 28 passing with one touchdown and rushed for 28 yards. The 35.7% completion percentage was the worst of his career in a game where he has thrown at least five pass attempts. On the season Tua has thrown 22 touchdowns and five interceptions and is second in the NFL with a 73.5 QBR, but in the last two weeks, he has put up his worst team performances of the season according to QBR. He finished with a 19.8 QBR against the 49ers and 24.6 against the Chargers. In the last three weeks, Tua has also been sacked a total of nine times after only being sacked eight times through his first eight starts. Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hilli s leading the NFL with 100 catches this season and second with 1,460 receiving yards.
Bills can put AFC East race out of reach
If you look at the box score from Week 3, Miami won the war when they beat the Bills 21-19, but Buffalo completely dominated the game in several key areas. The Bills held a 497 to 212 total yard edge, outgained the Dolphins 31 to 15 in first downs, and 40:40 to 19:20 in time of possession. Buffalo also went 11 for 18 on first downs compared to just 3 for 8 for the Dolphins. The difference in the meeting came in the RedZone, where Buffalo was just 2 for 4, compared to the Dolphins who scored a touchdown in all three trips. Buffalo also committed the game’s only turnover and three more penalties for an additional 32 yards.
𝟏 𝐑𝐄𝐓𝐖𝐄𝐄𝐓 = 𝟐 𝐕𝐎𝐓𝐄𝐒‼️#ProBowlVote | @JoshAllenQB
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#ProBowlVote | @GabeDavis13_#ProBowlVote | @Dawson_Knox#ProBowlVote | @DDawkins66#ProBowlVote | @MithenMor60 pic.twitter.com/INl4XwrsGh— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) December 15, 2022
The Bills are on a four-game winning streak after beating the Browns, Lions, Patriots, and Jets. Last week in their first true home game in Buffalo since November 13, the Bills beat the Jets 20-12 but did not cover the spread as a 10-point favorite. Buffalo was outgained 309 to 232 in total yard and 19 to 14 in first downs but still got the win, with the Jets losing the games only two turnovers on fumbles. Josh Allen finished 16 for 27 for 147 yards with a touchdown passing and added 47 yards with another touchdown with his feet.
Allen is third in the NFL with a 73.2 QBR and 26 touchdowns and has thrown 11 interceptions. The Bills are sixth in the NFL picking up 263.4 passing yards per game and eighth rushing for 133.7 yards per game offensively.
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The Bills dominated the Dolphins in so many ways when these teams met on Week 3, yet Miami still won by two points. This time around, the Bills are coming in with four straight wins, the Dolphins have dropped two straight, and the narrative is that the Dolphins won’t be able to play in the cold.
Playing in the cold won’t be easy, but it will also affect the Buffalo offense. This is also more of a must-win for a Miami team that is spending the week hearing about the cold weather and the struggles of their quarterback. Although I would not be surprised if Buffalo wins this game outright, expect the Dolphins to pull out all the stops in this game. If we see snow, expect Miami to get creative using Tua and Tyreke Hill to assist in moving the ball on the ground in critical moments. The Bills’ offense has not been as explosive lately ranking just 24th for the last three weeks picking up 4.9 yards per play. The Miami defense is tied for first allowing just 4.6 yards per play over the previous three games. Except for the Dolphins’ defense to show up against the Bills’ struggling offense as both sides battle the elements, keeping the Buffalo point total low enough for Miami to cover.
Prediction: Miami Dolphins +7
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The Dolphins have been held to 17 points or less in their last five games against teams that currently have a winning record (Bengals, Jets, Vikings, 49ers, Chargers), and the Bills are only allowing 13.8 ppg in games played in Buffalo this season (the win over Cleveland was played in Detroit). I mentioned earlier that the Dolphins are tied for first allowing just 4.6 yards per play over the last three games; well the Bills are one of the three teams tied with them for that top spot. These teams combined for 40 points the first time they played with the Bills gaining just under 500 yards of total offense. Now adding in the cold weather and possible snow, expect a low-scoring battle. Take the under.
Prediction: Under 44
