Ian’s Big Aftershock Could Be to Florida Migration

Hurricane Ian received top billing coverage as it approached, passed over, and then left Florida. The results so far are better than the minimum of $30 billion in damage some expected.

But what happened was bad enough, and that might affect something that Florida real estate, business environment, and entire economy has depended on: population migration.

There are two aspects: in-migration from other states and then movement within the state. Between April 1, 2020, and July 1, 2021—the most recent available numbers from the Census Bureau—Florida was one of the states that has seen the highest net increase in population change, significant portions of which are due to migration.

During that time period, Florida saw an estimated additional 242,941 people, or 1.1% of the starting population. That was topped only by the 382,436, or 1.3%, increase in Texas.

There is no data yet to show what impact the hurricane will have had. And it’s not as though migration to Florida, or other states more likely to be affected by seasonal storms, has stopped over the years. But it could fall in volume, according to John Burns Real Estate Consulting (JBREC).

“Southwest Florida has ranked as one of the top destinations for net migration in the US with over 20,000 residents moving into the region in the last 4 years,” the firm wrote. “While we expect some slowdown in population growth in the near term, the eastern suburbs could gain market share.”

Except the eastern part of the state isn’t immune. A WLRN public media story looked at which might have happened if a similar Category 4 storm hit the southeastern region, which includes Miami. “As the federal agencies and local governments reassess flood zones and incorporate new technology, data on sea-level rise and the fact that the concrete jungle doesn’t absorb as much water as the natural environment, they’ve concluded that vast swaths of South Florida — particularly inland areas — are vulnerable to crippling storm surge and flooding from rain,” they wrote.

And inland areas are where JBREC expects to see a population shift. “Just as Hurricane Andrew (a Cat 5 Hurricane in Miami) fueled growth in Broward County and the western suburbs of Miami, we expect to see strong demand for homes east of I75 over the next decade,” they wrote. “Communities like Babcock Ranch, Big Cypress, Wellen Park, Lakewood Ranch and Ave Maria have land and homes available. We expect these inland communities to be beneficiaries of future population growth.”

But if inland areas are susceptible to heavy damage, as experts say, a shift inland may be seen only as a temporary respite, depending on future storms and how news media cover where damage occurs.

In the shorter term, though, CRE investors and developers will need to consider population shifts into and within the state when planning where to do business.