Miami Dolphins Playoff Outlook Through Dec. 23 and Week 16 Rooting Guide
Week 16 of the 2021 NFL season began with the Tennessee Titans’ come-from-behind victory against the San Francisco 49ers, an outcome that helped the Miami Dolphins’ 2022 first-round draft pick’s position but not their playoff chances.
That games, though, and all others pale in significance for Miami’s playoff hopes when compared to the AFC East showdown Sunday between the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots.
Let’s start with the reminder that the Dolphins pretty much have to finish off would become a nine-game winning streak to end the season at 10-7 to have more than an incredibly long shot to make the playoffs, according to FiveThirtyEight, which puts their percentage at no better than 7 percent with an 9-8 finish.
With a 10-7 finish, the Dolphins’ playoff chance percentage can go all the way up to 99 percent IF the Bills defeat the Patriots at Gillette Stadium on Sunday.
A New England win Sunday would give the Patriots the AFC East title and immediately drop the Dolphins’ projected playoff chances to 49 percent. And that percentage drops to 28 in the event of a New England win Sunday coupled with Buffalo rebounding to end the season with consecutive home wins against Atlanta and the New York Jets, two games where the Bills figure to be heavily favored.
There are several other games involving AFC playoff contenders and some scenarios that work out better for the Dolphins than others, but nothing nearly as significant as that Buffalo-New England game.
Those other games and the preferred outcomes would have Houston win at home against the L.A. Chargers (not likely), Denver win at Las Vegas, Baltimore win at Cincinnati, Kansas City win at home against Pittsburgh, Arizona win at home against Indianapolis on Saturday night, and Green Bay win at home against Cleveland on Saturday afternoon.
As far as the game Thursday night, a Tennessee loss would have helped the Dolphins because it would have put Miami in position to tie the Titans at 10-7 with a victory against them next weekend.
But Tennessee now is 10-5 and it’s awfully difficult to see them losing their season finale at Houston, putting them out of reach for the Dolphins.
As for the 49ers, the loss dropped their playoff chance percentage from 81 to 70 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight. At this point, it looks as though the 49ers’ pick (which belongs to Miami) will be at best among the lowest for non-playoff teams and it won’t make a significant different if they do make the playoffs unless they win in the postseason.
That’s because the final 14 positions in the draft are determined not by record but by playoff advancement. For example, losing teams in the wild-card round will pick from 19-24; losing teams in the divisional round will pick from 25-28; the two conference championship game losers pick 29 and 30; the Super Bowl loser 31st; and the Super Bowl winner 32nd.
So, for example, if San Francisco finishes with the best record for a non-playoff team, the 2022 first-round pick would be 18th; if the 49ers have the worst record among playoff teams and losing in the first round, the pick would be 19th.
So it’s not a big enough difference that the outcome Thursday night became favorable for the Dolphins.
But, again, outside of the Dolphins continuing to do their part and winning games, the matchup that really matters this weekend is at Gillette Stadium.
