Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions
The Atlanta Braves (21-24) host the Miami Marlins (18-24) Friday for the opener of a 3-game set at Truist Park. First pitch is set for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Bravesodds with MLB picks and predictions.
Miami has lost 4 of its last 5 games which includes a 2-1 series loss at home vs. the Braves last weekend. The Marlins are 4-6 straight up (SU) in their last 10 games.
Atlanta split a 4-game home series with the Philadelphia Phillies after losing 4-1 Thursday in the series finale and is 5-5 SU in its last 10 contests.
Season series: Tied 3-3 but the Braves have a plus-2 run differential in those meetings.
Marlins at Braves projected starters
LHP Tyler Rogers vs. RHP Ian Anderson
Rogers is 2-5 with a 5.20 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 through 36 1/3 IP over 8 starts.
- Last start: Loss, 5-3, May 20 at home vs. the Braves with 4 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 3 HR, 2 BB and 5 K.
- 2022 vs. the Braves: 0-2 with a 5.00 ERA (9 IP, 5 ER), 12 H, 4 BB and 9 K across 2 starts.
Anderson is 3-3 with a 4.07 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 through 42 IP over 8 starts.
- Last start: Loss, 4-3, Sunday at the Marlins with 6 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 2 BB and 6 K.
- 2022 vs. the Marlins: 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA (11 IP, 6 ER), 13 H, 5 BB and 10 K across 2 starts.
Marlins at Braves odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:48 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML) : Marlins +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Braves -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS) : Marlins +1.5 (-175) | Braves -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under (O/U) : 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
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Marlins at Braves picks and predictions
Prediction
Marlins 6, Braves 4
Money line
BET MARLINS (+115) because of the line freeze in the betting market in spite of the dip in Rogers’ numbers year over year and Atlanta’s 9-6 SU record vs. left-handed pitching.
Nearly two-thirds of the cash is on the Braves according to pregame.com but their number has barely budged off the opener. This tells us that the oddsmakers are comfortable with their price and welcome more pro-Atlanta action.
However, Rogers has electric stuff and has pitched much better on the road this season. Rogers hasn’t allowed a homer on the road and his 2.81 road FIP and 15.4% K-BB% on the road are much better than his home marks of a 7.38 FIP and 8.2% K-BB%. The opposite is true of Anderson’s home/road splits.
Miami’s lineup is in the top-10 of several advanced hitting metrics vs. right-handed pitching and Anderson has a career 1-3 record against the Marlins with a 4.50 ERA and 1.84 WHIP (both worse than his career marks).
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS because the Marlins +1.5 (-175) are out of my price range and Miami’s alternate RL is a no-go since the Marlins are just 6-14 RL as favorites.
Over/Under
PASS because we are late to the party since the market has steamed the juice up on the total.
I prefer the Over 8.5 (-130) because the Braves are 15-5-2 O/U as home favorites and Marlins-Braves are 3-1-1 O/U in their last 5 meetings.
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