Best and Worst Outcomes for the Miami Heat on Trade Deadline Day

The Miami Heat and their fans have been waiting for today. The NBA trade deadline is at 3 p.m. and everyone will have their eyes glued to their phones, waiting to see what takes place with the Milwaukee Bucks’ Giannis Antetokounmpo and, secondarily, the Memphis Grizzlies’ Ja Morant.

To mark this special day in basketball fandom, one that is always on the minds of Heat fans, here are both ends of the spectrum regarding potential deadline day outcomes.

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Best Outcome: The Milwaukee Bucks trade two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo to the Heat AND somehow find a way to acquire Ja Morant

This was an obvious one and probably unlikely. The Heat have been waiting to put their chips in on a superstar of Antetokounmpo’s magnitude. After an offseason and a good chunk of this regular season has been clouded by Antetokounmpo’s future with the Bucks, the Heat finally land their whale, with a bonus star in the mix.

For the Bucks, they would likely end up being a package centered around Tyler Herro, Kel’el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kasparas Jakucionis, perhaps Pelle Larsson, two first round picks and three first round pick swaps. Additionally, Andrew Wiggins could be headed to the Bucks or to a third team that nets the Bucks an extra draft asset.

The Heat, despite everything they’d be sending to Milwaukee, could still hypothetically get a deal done with the Grizzlies, in a very technical sense. A deal centered around Terry Rozier and one of Simone Fontecchio’s expiring contract or Nikola Jovic, (who has a four-year extension that kicks off next season), could work, perhaps with a second round pick thrown in as a sweetener, if the Grizzlies are willing to settle for such a discounted price on a player who’s been the face of their franchise for years.

Worst Outcome: The Milwaukee Bucks decide to send Antetokounmpo to the Minnesota Timberwolves

This would truly be a dagger to the heart for many. Antetokounmpo being paired up with a young superstar talent like Anthony Edwards, in a city with cold weather, state tax, significantly less draft capital and interesting/good young players to offer would be an absolute disaster.

In this case, the Bucks likely end up with Jaden McDaniels, another big contract like Rudy Gobert or Julius Randle, a first round pick swap, multiple second round picks and whatever draft capital they could scrounge together from moving one or two of Gobert, Randle and Naz Reid.

The Heat would have no immediate superstar to chase anymore (unless something drastic happens with the Cleveland Cavaliers and Donovan Mitchell after the Playoffs) and would be put in an uncomfortable position, with looming extension questions for multiple players and a murky direction.

Neutral Outcome (bonus): The Milwaukee Bucks decide to hold onto Antetokounmpo past the trade deadline and re-evaluate in the offseason

This is a scenario that has been mentioned time and time again. The Bucks could decide to hold onto their franchise player and try to see if they can sway him to sign an extension in the offseason, perhaps with a potentially foundational draft pick in hand and more draft capital to trade for upgrades.

Additionally, the teams already that have already been most rumored for Antetokounmpo’s services (Heat, Timberwolves, Knicks, Lakers) will have improved offers while other teams who may have more to offer could gain interest after disappointing results in the Playoffs, (teams like the Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs and Houston Rockets).

Antetokounmpo, with one year left on his contract at that point, could then narrow the market down to an expanded list of preferred destinations by making clear who he’d be willing to sign a contract extension with.

The Heat would likely not offer young players or draft picks, in that case, for a player of Morant’s caliber, in the same way they didn’t quite go all-in for Kevin Durant last summer in order to keep their best offer intact for Antetokounmpo.

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Alexander Toledo is a contributor to Miami Heat On SI and producer/co-host of the Five on the Floor podcast, covering the Heat and NBA. He can be reached at Twitter: @tropicalblanket