Will Tropical Storm Erin impact South Florida? Here’s the system’s projected path.

Tropical Storm Erin formed Monday morning as it moved away from the Cabo Verde Islands in the far eastern Atlantic.

The storm will continue moving west through the Atlantic but will remain over relatively cool water for the next 24 to 48 hours. Some slow strengthening is possible as the storm moves west at around 20 mph.

By the middle of this week, Erin will move through much more favorable conditions for development, with warmer water and low wind shear.

The National Hurricane Center predicts that the storm will become the first hurricane of the season by Thursday. The forecast continues to show the storm strengthening into a major hurricane by next weekend.

Over the next five days, the storm will continue moving west and will slowly begin to turn west-northwest by the weekend.

This track will take the storm north of the Leeward Islands on Saturday. An area of high pressure located north of the storm will begin to shift east, opening up a turn to the north by the end of next weekend and the start of next week. This has been, and continues to be, the forecast model trend.

Even though the forecast models indicate a turn to the north, there is uncertainty about where and when that turn will occur. This will play a significant role in any potential impacts that Erin may have on the islands, Bermuda, and the east coast of the U.S.

The Next Weather team will continue to monitor the forecasts along with the track from the National Hurricane Center and adjust the outlook as needed.

Given that this is a potentially major hurricane traveling west through the Atlantic as we approach the peak of hurricane season, it is a good idea to review your plan and make sure you have all of your supplies.

The turn to the north remains a forecast for now; the storm itself will continue to travel west and intensify this week.