Miami is falling back to what was expected
The All-Star break is a good time for teams to get a break and reset. For teams in a rough patch the break is looked at with desperation so they can figure out what is going wrong and come back with a clear mind. This season, like many recent ones, the Miami Heat are one of the teams that are thankful the break finally came.
Evaluation of the Heat’s season can be tricky. They started out the season on fire and shocked the NBA world. Their hot start had many in NBA circles predicting the Heat to have a fantastic regular season fueled by the new offense.
Unfortunately, since then the offense has cooled off and the Heat have fallen back down to where most predicted them to be. They currently sit just above .500 at 29 -27, which puts them 8th in the Eastern Conference. The silver lining is that they are still just 2 games out of the 6th seed to avoid the Play-in tournament for the first time in what feels like a decade.
lowering expectations
Grant Hughes of Bleacher Report has been predicting win totals for every NBA team as the season goes on and his new predictions have just came out. As expected, the Heat’s prediction is not near as kind as the earlier prediction from December 1st.
Hughes has dropped the Heat’s record prediction to 44- 38, which is a long ways away from the 49 – 33 he was predicting in December. The good news is the Heat have still impressed enough for Hughes to be confident enough to think they will outperform his preseason prediction.
Among Hughes reasons for the prediction, he says:
“The Heat are still hanging around .500, but they’re not doing it with offense. After that eye-opening start, they’re scoring at a clip below the league average. Fortunately, the trend of Miami posting a defensive rating inside the top 10 continues. The Heat are actually narrowly within the top five on that end and should be expected to stick there.”
The reality of the situation
Hughes is 100% correct. The Heat have been hanging their hat on the defensive end once again and have rode their top 5 defense to several gutsy wins. The offense has not been near as consistent as the start of the year, but I will give props to Bam Adebayo who has stepped up on an individual level.
The season might not be as exciting as it felt like after the first 20 games of the year, but Miami still can outperform expectations. With Adebayo finding his offensive groove, the Heat could reach a new level that they did not even reach at the start of the year. The issue is when Adebayo started playing his best ball, the others fell back closer to their expectations. The Heat will hope they get the best of everyone as the playoffs get closer.
