FSU Basketball looking to end ACC skid against soaring Miami Hurricanes
Florida State should be 1-4 in ACC play right now. But they’re not. Instead, they have their worst start to conference play since Steve Robinson’s second-to-last season in 2000-01, a year they started 0-7 in ACC play. To avoid starting 0-6, they would have to go on the road to beat Miami, who has had an impressive start to the Jai Lucas tenure.
This is a big week in Miami. They just hosted the national championship game in football on Monday night, a game in which they _. Is that going to have any impact on this game? We’ll have to find out.
This rivalry game will be at 7 p.m. EST on ESPNU from the Watsco Center in Coral Gables, Florida.
READ MORE: 3 takeaways as FSU Basketball lets win slip away against Wake Forest
Miami Hurricanes Breakdown (15-3 Overall, 4-1 ACC)
Miami is in its first year under first-time head coach Jai Lucas, who came over after being an assistant at Duke for three years, was at Kentucky before that, and played at both Texas and Florida.
Lucas has the Hurricanes out to a hot start, as they sit 15-3 midway through January. They’ve only lost to Florida, BYU, and Clemson, who are teams inside the top 25 of KenPom currently. They haven’t beaten anyone too outstanding, but they do have wins over Ole Miss, Wake Forest, and Notre Dame, which is more than Florida State can say. An early-season win over Georgetown has lost some luster after the Hoyas have started their season 9-9.
Because of a mostly lackluster schedule, it’s hard to tell just how good Miami is, but they do have some talented players. They play 10 people pretty consistently, but the top six are the ones to worry about.
It starts with Malik Reneau, who was a former blue-chip prospect who heavily considered FSU out of high school. He started his career at Indiana and was solid but sometimes underwhelming in his three seasons there, but he’s broken out as a legitimate star in Coral Gables, averaging 19.8 PPG and 6.4 RPG while shooting 61.5% inside the arc. He can stretch the floor occasionally, but teams will live with him settling for threes when he’s this dangerous around the rim.
Tallahassee native Tre Donaldson is back in the Sunshine State, but is now playing for the wrong team. He was a steady player at Michigan last year and has been even better this year, averaging 16.3 PPG and 6.5 APG. He’s still not an amazing shooter, but his assist-to-turnover ratio has improved since last year, and that’s what you want from a senior guard.
True freshman five-star forward Shelton Henderson has been great at attacking the basket from the wing. At 6’6″, 240 pounds, he can be a real mismatch, and that’s given him 14.1 PPG and 4.3 RPG. He’s not a great shooter, as he’s only taking about 1.5 threes per game, and he has shot poorly from the free-throw line. He’s second in free-throw attempts, but he’s only making them at a 56% rate.
Donaldson’s backcourt mate, Tru Washington, is their last player averaging double-figures scoring at 12.2 PPG. He started his career at New Mexico and has actually taken a small step up this year. He’s been more efficient inside the arc this year, but like most of the roster, he hasn’t been that great of a shooter.
Ernest Udeh has been a BEAST on the glass, and that’s what he does more than anything. He’s only averaging 6.8 PPG, but when he’s bringing down 10.4 RPG, it helps make everything else easier. He is shooting 71.7% from the floor when he takes shots, though.
Dante Allen is their best bench threat at 6.8 PPG, and Timotej Malovec is probably their best shooter.
This is one of the best teams in the country at shooting inside the arc and rebounding, but they are a poor free-throw shooting team. Teams have been able to light them up from three on occasion, but it’s rarely cost them. Miami also does a good job of forcing turnovers, which is something the ‘Noles will need to be wary of.
Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (7-11 Overall, 0-5 ACC)
It’s hard to describe how much of a letdown it was to lose to Wake Forest on Saturday. FSU played well enough to win. Even if the offense wasn’t firing on all cylinders, they rebounded well, they defended pretty well, and they kept the Demon Deacons off the free-throw line. Any game in which FSU holds an opponent to 69 points, it should be a win.
But when your best player, Robert McCray V, who is a former Wake Forest player, turns it over ELEVEN times, it’s going to erase any of the goodwill built up in that game. Even if his turnovers are cut in half, FSU runs away with this game. Wake Forest feasted on those, scoring 18 points off turnovers. Of the 16 turnovers FSU committed, 11 of them were by McCray, and 10 of them were live ball turnovers. That’s too many, and it essentially cost them the game. Yes, they could’ve gotten a stop to end the game. But they had the ball up by one, and McCray threw the ball away. That’s incredibly frustrating.
For FSU to be at its best, Robert McCray V and Chauncey Wiggins have to be at their best. Wiggins didn’t shoot well on Saturday, but he did make an impact on the glass and around the basket with some putbacks and layups.
For Florida State to go on the road and beat a talented team like Miami, they’re going to have to playnearly perfect, and they were far from perfect against Wake Forest,
Projected Starters
FSU
G: Robert McCray V
G: Martin Somerville
F: Thomas Bassong
F: Chauncey Wiggins
F: Alex Steen
Miami
G: Tre Donaldson
G: Tru Washington
F: Shelton Anderson
F: Malik Reneau
F: Ernest Udeh
3 Keys to the Game
Interior Defense
Miami’s offense is predicated on getting inside and scoring at the rim. They’re 4th nationally in two-pointers made per game, and they don’t have anyone on the roster taking more threes than twos. Only two players, Tre Donaldson and Timotej Malovec, are attempting an average of even four triples per game. In all three of their losses, they shot 50% or worse inside the arc. That has to be the line for FSU to aim for.
It’s actually almost worth fouling them before letting them get a decent look inside the arc, as they’re shooting 60% on twos and just 68.8% at the free-throw line. You’d like to force them into threes, but that may not be realistic.
Let’s Get Ready to Rebooouuuunnnddd
Florida State did a mostly good job of rebounding against Wake Forest, but Wake isn’t a good rebounding team. Miami is one of the best. They have an offensive rebounding rate on the season of 38.2%, and they hold teams to a rate of 27%. FSU has to come up with better numbers than that.
Robert McCray V- CHILL on the Turnovers
Robert McCray V is averaging over 6 turnovers per game in ACC play, which is just inexcusable. They would’ve beaten Wake Forest had he only turned it over that many times, but he needs to get it under control. Yes, he has the ball in his hands a lot, so it’s natural that he turns it over more than most. But this is insane.
Game Prediction
I think this is a tough matchup for Florida State. They don’t have the interior presence needed to deal with Miami’s style of play, and unless they shoot lights out while taking care of the ball, I think this is going to get out of hand for the ‘Noles, unfortunately. I hate picking a rival, and while I don’t think Miami is quite as good as their analytics say, they may run away with this.
Miami 87, Florida State 70
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