Miami vs. Indiana expert picks: CFP National Championship predictions and odds
Monday night’s College Football Playoff National Championship Game between No. 1 Indiana and No. 10 Miami shapes up as a grueling, physical battle between two teams that have embraced that identity all season. The unbeaten Hoosiers are trying to become college football’s first 16-0 national champion, but they must get past a resurgent Hurricanes team playing on its home field.
Miami’s path has been anything but easy. The Hurricanes knocked off No. 7 Texas A&M on the road, eliminated No. 2 Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl and outlasted No. 6 Ole Miss in the Fiesta Bowl to reach the title game. Powered by a massive offensive line, Miami has created running lanes for Mark Fletcher Jr. while quarterback Carson Beck distributes the ball to elite playmakers such as Malachi Toney, giving the Hurricanes a balanced, efficient attack.
First-year defensive coordinator Corey Heatherman has elevated Miami’s defense into one of the nation’s best, bringing to life fourth-year coach Mario Cristobal’s vision of a big, punishing roster. Still, the question remains whether that physicality is enough to test Indiana.
The Hoosiers have overwhelmed everyone in their path, blasting No. 9 Alabama 38-3 in the Rose Bowl and dismantling No. 5 Oregon 56-22 in the Peach Bowl. With Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza at the controls and no obvious weaknesses on the roster, Indiana enters as a more-than-touchdown favorite.
Second-year coach Curt Cignetti has orchestrated one of the most remarkable turnarounds in college football history, putting Indiana on the brink of its first national championship.
Where to watch Miami vs. Indiana
Date: Monday, Jan. 19 | Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Hard Rock Stadium — Miami Gardens, Fla.
TV: ESPN | Live stream: Fubo (Try for free)
Miami vs. Indiana picks for CFP National Championship
Tom Fornelli: At what point does everybody start listening to what Indiana’s been telling them all season? It has blown out Alabama and Oregon in consecutive playoff games and comes into the championship in much better shape than the Miami Hurricanes do health-wise. I don’t expect we see a blowout along the lines of what the Rose and Peach Bowls provided, but I do expect the outcome will be clear before the fourth quarter starts. Pick: Indiana – 8.5 | Indiana 31, Miami 13
Shehan Jeyarajah: Indiana has been a perfect football team in 2025, and it will ultimately end with an elusive first national championship. It won’t come easy. Miami’s top-rated defensive line will force mistakes, including at least one turnover from Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza. However, Mendoza’s legend will be cemented with a fourth-quarter touchdown to ice the game and deliver the Hoosiers an unlikely title. Pick: Indiana – 8.5 | Indiana 27, Miami 17
David Cobb: Miami’s offensive line is sturdy enough to prevent Indiana’s defensive front from completely taking over, a necessity if the Hurricanes hope to stay within striking distance. On the other side, Miami has enough punch up front — led by Rueben Bain Jr. and Akeem Mesidor — to make the Hoosiers uncomfortable at times. Ultimately, Indiana looks like a team of destiny and should win outright. But Miami is capable of turning this into a fight. Pick: Miami +8.5 | Indiana 27, Miami 20
Chris Hummer: Miami is playing a national championship game at home. What a story. What an opportunity. What a moment. The Hurricanes can’t lose it, right? Well … here comes Indiana. It feels ridiculous to type that with a 15-0 Indiana. It’s Indiana! History tells us this isn’t possible, but Curt Cignetti has created a monster in Bloomington. They’re the most well-coached, most disciplined and best team in the country. Plus, they have a Heisman Trophy-winning QB and, if you talk to coaches around the sport, have a roster that athletically matches up with anyone. As crazy as it feels to write, I’m picking Indiana to win a national championship. How could I not? Maybe Miami finds a bit more magic at home. But this has been the season of Indiana. As long as Indiana’s o-line can hold up on the edges, it wins this game. Pick: Miami +8.5 | Indiana 24, Miami 21
Who will win and cover in Indiana vs. Miami? SportsLine’s computer model just simulated the College Football Playoff National Championship Game 10,000 times and projects that one side will cover well over 50% of the time. Visit SportsLine to find out who it is.
