College football coaches break down Indiana-Miami. All predict the Hoosiers winning first title

Last season as Cal’s quarterback, Fernando Mendoza almost led his team to an upset of then-No. 18 Miami. But the Bears couldn’t hold a 25-point second-half lead and lost, 39-38. Mendoza completed 50 percent of his passes, going 11-of-22 for 285 yards with two touchdowns and one interception.

On Monday night, Mendoza returns home and gets another shot at the Canes, the program he grew up rooting for, in the College Football Playoff National Championship Game. This time, the Miami native is the headliner. He’s led No. 1 Indiana to a storybook season that includes him winning the Heisman Trophy, winning the Big Ten title and steamrolling Alabama and Oregon by a combined score of 94-25 in the Hoosiers’ first two Playoff games. Mendoza’s numbers in those games are stunning: eight touchdown passes and five incompletions.

The Hoosiers are an 8.5-point favorite over the Canes. This week, The Athletic spoke to a dozen coaches, granted anonymity for their candor, who have faced Miami and Indiana to break down the matchup.

All of them said they expect the Hoosiers to win their first national title.

Indiana’s X-factor: Quarterback

Mendoza has five games this season with more touchdowns than incompletions. No other college quarterback in the past 25 years has done it more than twice.

“Mendoza’s the best I’ve faced in the last couple of years,” said a Power 4 defensive coordinator. The coach said, like most quarterbacks, Mendoza can be affected by pressure, but what makes him special is that the opposition can’t rattle him.

“On a given play, you can affect him with pressure and he will make mistakes,” the DC said. “The teams that have caused him problems are when they’ve pressured him. Typically, they played man and he overthrew the ball or got antsy in the pocket and took a sack. But it doesn’t matter what you did in the play before; he’s just gonna go right back to work. There’s no sense that you can rattle him.

“He’s one of the few who actually reads through coverage and works his progressions. He knows how to answer. He knows how to buy time. He’s just dynamic enough to run for a first down when he needs to. It’s just enough to be really frustrating.”

At Oregon earlier in the season, Mendoza bounced back from throwing a fourth-quarter pick six to lead Indiana on a 12-play, 75-yard TD drive to propel the Hoosiers to their biggest win at that point of the Curt Cignetti era. At Penn State, Mendoza threw another fourth-quarter interception, which the Nittany Lions soon turned into a touchdown drive to take a four-point lead. Mendoza proceeded to lead a 10-play, 80-yard TD drive in the final two minutes for another big road win.

“It seems like he’s made of the right stuff and competitive,” said a Big Ten linebackers coach who played IU this year. “What impressed me the most about Mendoza is that one of our D-linemen got a hell of a shot on him and knocked the wind out of him. But he came right back.”

The linebackers coach said the notion that Mendoza can be affected but not rattled is “a good way to put it.”

“When you watch the full season of Indiana, you can pressure at times, or you can get to him a series, but he’s gonna fight and swing the whole game — like Penn State.”

Indiana has players who fit the scheme

The Hoosiers are No. 1 in third-down offense at 58.2 percent, up more than 10 percentage points from last year when they ranked No. 13.

“They run a lot of RPOs, and they’re like the masters of the back-shoulder fades,” said a second Big Ten linebackers coach. “That seems to be their go-to in critical situations. Mendoza reads it well, and it’s really hard to defend.”

Another Power 4 defensive coordinator agreed that IU loves RPOs but added that the Hoosiers are “a great screen team. It’s really hard to get them off schedule. It’s a highly efficient team.”

Their backs, Roman Hemby (1,060 rushing yards, seven TDs) and Kaelon Black (961 and 10 TDs), are very similar.

“They’re gonna try to run through your face for five, six, seven yards,” said the second linebackers coach. IU’s receivers might be the most underrated aspect of the team, said one of the defensive coaches.

“They are definitely playing a lot better than earlier in the year,” said the first DC. “Athletically, (Charlie) Becker is a problem. He’s their best receiver.”

A 6-4, 204-pound sophomore, Becker had only four catches in IU’s first seven games but has emerged as the big-play man since November after injuries to Elijah Sarratt gave him a bigger opportunity.

“The Becker kid came out of nowhere,” said one of the linebackers coaches. “We thought he was a tall strider, but he’ll make some really good contested catches. You can tell he was a track kid. He can roll.”

But don’t sleep on Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr. Cooper, their leading receiver, is a former basketball star who made the spectacular game-winning catch against Penn State.

Who has the offensive line edge?

The Hoosiers’ offensive line is the most improved unit from last year. The Hoosiers are averaging 5.33 yards per carry — almost a yard more than last season — and have given up slightly fewer sacks per game.

“Their O-line is as cohesive a group as I’ve seen in the last two years because in this portal world now, that is hard to get,” said the DC. “They’re incredibly detailed. They don’t do too much. They’re very good at passing off movement. They take any level of undisciplined football and can hurt you with it.”

One of the defensive coaches said they thought right guard Bray Lynch was the closest thing they saw in a weak link: “Going into our game, he was the guy we were targeting for our pass rush.”

The DC said he thought Lynch was OK, and that right tackle Kahlil Benson was a weak spot, but said the 6-6, 305-pound senior got better as the season went on: “They put 11 bodies out there and there isn’t any glaring weakness.”

Coaches who have faced the Canes and the Hoosiers said Miami’s O-line is better. It’s also much bigger. The top-rated NFL O-line prospect in the game is Miami right tackle Francis Mauigoa, a 6-6, 335-pound former five-star recruit projected by The Athletic’s NFL Draft analyst Dane Brugler as a top-20 pick, who several coaches told The Athletic is as good as advertised.

“They’re probably the best offensive line we’ve faced,” said a Power 4 defensive coach. “They’re massive up front, and what they do schematically with those tight splits, it’s hard to get any penetration unless you’re bringing edge pressure.”

Left tackle Markel Bell, at 6-9 and 348 pounds with 36 1/2-inch arms, is one of the biggest men in college football.

“He is so huge but doesn’t move well,” said another linebackers coach who played Miami. “We thought we could take advantage of him. But he is this big behemoth who gets his hands on you, and you’re just stuck.”

Several coaches identified center James Brockermeyer as someone Indiana could try to exploit. “We just didn’t think he was strong,” said one coach. “If you’d get your hands into his chest, you’d push him back four and five yards. We thought he was the weak link of their unit. We were trying to attack him all day. We probably should’ve pressured them more up the middle than we did.”

Miami’s physical run game

The Canes rank only No. 72 in rushing at 155 yards per game, but they’ve averaged 173 in three Playoff games and 4.5 yards per carry.

“They want to ground you out,” said the second linebackers coach. “That’s (head coach Mario) Cristobal. He wants to just run the rock and pound you into submission.”

Mark Fletcher, a 6-2, 230-pound junior who was banged up and missed a few games in November, has been a breakout star in the Playoff. He ran all over Texas A&M for 172 yards and over 10 yards a carry. He put up 90 yards on Ohio State and 133 on Ole Miss.

“He fits exactly what they need to do and Cristobal’s whole mass-kicks-ass mantra,” said the first linebackers coach.

Another rival coach compared Fletcher to Derrick Henry.

“He’s tall and strong. He’ll take some whacks, and it doesn’t seem to faze him. He’s not going down and then all the other O-linemen are coming in pushing the pile forward for another 10 yards.”

“I saw that kid in high school,” said a DB coach. “I saw him play live and said this dude is an animal. I told our staff, we’ve got to do a good job of tackling him and wrapping up.  And he got us.”

Miami’s ‘O-line mindset’ all over the field

Rival coaches say it’s obvious that Cristobal is an old O-line guy at heart. When Cristobal came home to Miami four years ago, his mission was to build the biggest bully in college football. One of the coaches said that mentality might be best epitomized by Miami’s smallest player on offense, freshman wideout Malachi Toney, a 5-10, 188-pounder who throws his body all over the field as a blocker in the run game.

“It’s the size of the O-line, the size of Fletcher getting behind the O-line, but it’s also the way their receivers sell out and crack support,” said the first linebackers coach. “Watch them against Texas A&M, and most O-line coaches like Cristobal understand this: You bring in the receiver and you crack the extra run defender, the safety and then, you’re making corners if it bounces outside. And then when you start to guess outside, Fletcher hits it inside.

“When they motion into the C-gap area and they crack on a safety, you can see run after run, that’s the difference. They’re getting really good push inside and making the DBs tackle.”

What about Miami’s receivers?

Toney, a three-star recruit who graduated high school a year early to join Miami, was the best-kept secret in Coral Gables before the season started. Miami coaches had a hard time not getting too giddy over the local kid nicknamed “Baby Jesus.”

Toney was dazzling in Miami’s prime-time debut against Notre Dame, cutting up the Irish defense in the Canes’ upset win. He’s gone on to catch 99 passes for 1,089 yards and nine TDs. He’s run for 113 yards and is 4-of-7 as a passer with two more touchdowns. He’s also averaging over 14 yards per punt return.

“Toney is really special,” said a DB coach who faced Miami in the Playoff. “He has really good balance and body control, and his lower body is much stronger than that of a typical freshman. They’re gonna find ways to get him the ball. He’s playing like a senior in how he understands reads and situational football.

“And it’s not like he’s just playing one position. He is playing all of the friggin field. You just don’t find that in a freshman. … They do so much with him that you wouldn’t think he’d be able to compartmentalize all of that and do every single thing that they’re asking him to do. He’s unbelievable.”

Miami’s other two receivers, Keelan Marion and CJ Daniels, were described as “OK.” Daniels (seven touchdowns) is a savvy veteran, while Marion, who went for 114 yards on seven catches and a TD against Ole Miss, is more dynamic.

“They’ll throw some tunnel screens and bubbles to get the ball out in space to Toney and let him work,” said a linebackers coach. “We were way too soft in coverage in that game. We should’ve played more man and pressed Daniels and Marion earlier because those guys are just alright. You do have to have a whole game plan for Toney because he is elite. He can throw it, make you miss, break tackles.”

Miami’s wild card: Carson Beck

Most of the coaches agree it is Beck. The former Georgia QB has completed more than 73 percent of his passes for 3,581 yards with 29 touchdowns and 11 picks. He hit on less than 65 percent of his passes last year for the Bulldogs.

“I think (Miami offensive coordinator Shannon) Dawson has done a good job of keeping it simple for Beck,” said one of the Ole Miss coaches. “He’s got a lot of easy reads. You’re either going here or you’re going there. If not, pull it down and run it or throw it away. He knows their defense is good, so they’ll be in games if they don’t turn the ball over. If you look at the games they’ve lost, they lost the turnover battle and weren’t able to score in the red zone.

“Beck is more confident than when we played him last year when he was at Georgia. I think that has a lot to do with his offensive line. His O-line at Georgia was just OK. We had like seven sacks. This year, we only got two. He’s making the right reads and checks to get in and out of things to keep them out of harm’s way. He checked to a screen on third down and got a big first down in the third quarter.”

Another defensive coach said Beck is accurate and more athletic than he’s given credit for, but added, “I trust Mendoza a little more than Beck when it comes down to it.”

Said an analyst whose team faced Miami earlier in the season: “Beck wasn’t great vs. A&M and Ohio State, but he never hurt the Canes. And he made some legit great plays vs. Ole Miss. The real question is, can he go four consecutive games without self-destructing?”

Indiana’s defense: Look out

Beck and Miami are in for their toughest test of the season. Indiana is No. 2 in the country in run defense and has 45 sacks — tied for second most in the country – and leads the nation in red zone touchdown percentage.

“After playing them, and just watching them play Oregon, they don’t have one player on defense that scares you, but they’re just better than you,” said one skill position coach who faced IU.

In two Playoff games, the Hoosiers had 16 TFLs, six sacks and forced four turnovers. Even more impressive is that they did all that without top edge rusher Stephen Daley, who had 19 TFLs but was injured after the Big Ten title game celebrating IU’s win over Ohio State.

“They do a tremendous job of destroying blocks,” said a longtime Big Ten O-line coach. “They engage blocks and get off them really well if they’re playing straight. What they also do a really good job of is they have some pattern games with their front. They cause a lot of confusion. … If you spend too much time trying to get to the linebacker, that (DT Mario) Landino guy, who does a tremendous job, will come free off combinations.”

The confusion that defensive coordinator Bryant Haines causes is reflected in the fact that Indiana has 10 players with at least six TFLs this season. (Miami has only five.)

“(Haines) is not a big pressure guy,” said a coach who played IU later in the season. “He doesn’t send six or more a whole lot. It’s mainly five-man pressure. What they do the best job of is playing your schemes.

“Their patterns are good, man. They junk it up. I think they do the best job I’ve ever seen of every run scheme they have a different game for. A bunch of people do it, but they’ll call a particular stunt, and if you don’t run that run against it, you can kinda f— ‘em up. But (Indiana) never gets caught in it.”

Indiana’s defense almost never gets it wrong, rival coaches say, which is a big reason why they’ve been so good. Haines’ run defenses have been in the top five in the country the past four seasons, ranking No. 2 this year; No. 1 last year;  No. 5 in 2023 at JMU and No. 2 in 2022.

“I’m convinced that they don’t call the (line) games,” said the rival coach. “They don’t ever get caught in it. If you’re running all these inside zone games, and the team that you’re playing runs outside zone, you’re gonna get f—-d because those twists and stuff are meant for certain things, but then you get caught running around it, or if they run a gap-scheme play and you’re screwed.”

Indiana has given up three runs of 70-plus yards this season, which actually is tied for most allowed in college football. Two of those runs did come in the first game of the season when Old Dominion ran for 218 yards on 9.5 yards a carry in a 27-14 loss. QB Colton Joseph ran for 179 yards on 10 carries with touchdown runs of 75 and 78 yards. No other opponent was even close to four yards a carry against the Hoosiers.

“Their system is very good, and they have older, smart kids that watch a lot of film — you can tell,” said one rival OC. “They’re good at knowing your tendencies and splits. If you line up and do something that you’ve done a lot, then they’re gonna have a bead on and they’ll pick that friggin’ ball off.”

The Hoosiers’ linebackers are solid. Rolijah Hardy and Aidan Fisher have combined for almost 200 tackles and Isaiah Jones has 15.5 TFLs. Corner D’Angelo Ponds is undersized at 5-9, 173 pounds but is ultra competitive and quick. He’s their big-play man on the back end.

“They play together and keep everything in front of them,” said an opposing coach. “They don’t play a lot of man and they do a really good job in the red zone.”

“I think Indiana can slow Miami’s run game, but it won’t stop it,” predicted an analyst whose team faced the Hurricanes. “Miami will hit a huge run somewhere in there, and IU will really struggle to handle Toney, but Indiana is better suited to take advantage of Carson Beck’s limitations as a decision-maker.”

Miami’s biggest strength: Defensive line

Miami’s biggest strength has been its D-line. The Canes lead the nation in sacks with 47. Rueben Bain Jr. is the tone-setter. He’s a 6-2, 277-pound powerhouse who can play inside and out.

“He causes all sorts of havoc,” said one head coach who faced Miami, calling Bain the best defensive player he saw all season. “He’s such a violent player with heavy hands.”

Bain, who leads the nation with 53 QB hurries this season according to PFF, and bookend defensive end Akheem Mesidor were a nightmare for the A&M offense in the first round of the Playoff, combining for 19 pressures. Bain had 5.5 TFLs and four sacks in the first two Playoff games but didn’t record a TFL against Ole Miss. But that didn’t mean he didn’t cause the Rebels a lot of issues. At times, he lined up inside and got triple-teamed and still was disruptive, generating five pressures. PFF gave him the highest grade of any defensive player in the two semifinal games, with an 81.8 grade.

“They’re extremely good on defense,” said one of the Ole Miss offensive coaches. “They’re salty, man. They’re fast and physical. They’re as good up front as any SEC defensive front I’ve faced in years. Bain is something special.”

Miami’s defense gave Ohio State’s star QB Julian Sayin more trouble than anyone else did this year. Both Miami and Indiana each sacked Sayin five times. Miami also picked him off twice and had a pick six. Against the Hoosiers, Sayin completed 72 percent of his passes. Against Miami, he completed under 63 percent.

The Hurricanes’ back seven is good, but not quite at the level of their D-line. Mohamed Toure is their leading tackler with 73 and part of a solid, experienced linebacking group. Miami’s DBs, led by nickel Keionte Scott (13 TFLs, two pick-sixes) are a strong group.

“Scott’s a difference-maker for them,” said an ACC OC. “He really sees the game and triggers so fast. They missed him when he was out.”

Miami will be without cornerback Xavier Lucas for the first half of the title game, stemming from a targeting penalty against Ole Miss.

“I think that Indiana is better at wideout than Miami is at corner, even when Miami is healthy,” said an ACC analyst, who predicts the Hoosiers’ efficient RPO game on first and second downs to mitigate the line of scrimmage problems the Canes D-line causes.

“Miami is pretty vanilla. It’s part of what makes them so good — they have a super small menu and their kids know what to do and do it very, very violently. When (DC) Corey Hetherman was at Minnesota, he just blitzed the first guy out of the box away from the running back constantly. It’s a very good way to stop a lot of shotgun running game. He’s not as predictable now, but they do the best they can to tee off on the run game on first down, and try to create long-distance third downs.”

Hetherman loves to use Scott and DB Jakobe Thomas as run blitzers, “and they’re very good at it,” said the analyst, but he adds that Indiana is also really effective at getting defenses into smaller sets of calls they can take advantage of. None of the coaching intel seems to bode well for Miami.

Everyone picked Indiana to win. Does Miami have a shot?

Can Miami derail Mendoza and the Hoosiers? It’s a tough ask. The Hurricanes have to run the ball against Haines’ defense, something almost no team has been able to do in a long time, and no one has been able to rattle the Heisman Trophy winner all season. One other key point from a coach who faced IU: Can Miami be patient? It’s something other Hoosier opponents haven’t been able to do.

“If you get impatient, bad stuff is going to happen. They make you put the ball in play, and they tackle you and you have to play the next play. People who get impatient get beat like Oregon just did.”