Miami vs. Indiana predictions: FanDuel Malachi Toney Anytime TD odds and best bets for CFP National Championship

Miami and Indiana meet in the College Football Playoff National Championship on Monday, January 19, 2026 (7:30 p.m. ET) at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL. The setup is deliciously strange: No. 10 Miami gets the title game on its home field, but No. 1 Indiana has looked like the sport’s most complete team through the playoff, blasting Oregon 56–22 in the Peach Bowl and riding Heisman-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza, a Miami native, into the finale. Early odds reflect that dominance, with Indiana opening around a touchdown favorite and the market sitting in the Indiana -7.5 range with a total in the high 40s.

For Miami, the path to an upset starts with making this a messy, high-leverage game: play clean football, steal a possession, and keep Indiana from living in comfortable third-and-manageable situations. The Hurricanes punched their ticket with a tight 31–27 win over Ole Miss, and they’ll lean on a front led by Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor to heat up Mendoza and force a couple of mistakes. On the other side, Miami’s offense, including the electric true freshman Malachi Toney, has to match Indiana’s efficiency and finish drives, because settling for field goals against a team that’s been piling on points is how a close script turns into a second-half chase.

FanDuel Featured Prop: Malachi Toney Anytime TD (+145)

FanDuel offers odds of +145 on Malachi Toney to score an Anytime Touchdown against Indiana in the CFP National Championship game.

Toney’s tallied 99 receptions for 1,089 yards and 9 receiving touchdowns this season, ranking among the nation’s top receivers.

In the CFP postseason, Toney scored at least one touchdown both against Texas A&M and Ole Miss, including a key score in the Hurricanes’ Fiesta Bowl win that punched their ticket to the title game.

Toney is Miami’s primary target, regularly posting high reception and target totals, plus he’s a punt returner and gets regular reps in the running game.

With Miami leaning on physical starts and shot plays in postseason play, Toney’s touch volume keeps his +145 Anytime Touchdown NCAAF player prop at FanDuel firmly in value territory.

Miami vs. Indiana betting preview

Explore the interactive widget below to view the current spread, over/under, and moneyline betting odds and probabilities for the Hurricanes-Hoosiers matchup at Hard Rock Stadium.

This prediction and best bet for the CFP National Championship game between Miami and Indiana is from Dimers.com, a leader in sports betting predictions.

Game Details

• Date: Monday, January 19, 2026
• Time: 7:30 PM ET
• Venue: Hard Rock Stadium

Expert Prediction: Miami vs. Indiana

According to Dimers’ 10,000-simulation model, Indiana enters the CFP National Championship as the more likely winner, taking 66% of simulated outcomes compared to 34% for Miami. The simulations project a controlled Indiana win, with an average final score landing at Indiana 28, Miami 22. That six-point margin sits just inside the current spread, suggesting a competitive title game rather than a runaway, especially if Miami can force a couple of high-leverage possessions to swing variance.

Best Bet: Miami +7.5

While Indiana grades out as the superior team overall, Miami +7.5 offers value based on both the simulation gap and matchup context. Dimers’ projected margin of six points leaves a cushion against the full touchdown spread, and Miami’s defensive front gives the Hurricanes a path to keep this game within one score deep into the fourth quarter. If Miami can slow Indiana’s tempo and limit explosive plays, covering the number becomes more likely even if the Hoosiers ultimately lift the trophy.

Conclusion: CFP National Championship

Indiana’s balance and efficiency make them a deserved favorite in the College Football Playoff National Championship, but the data points toward a tighter game than the spread suggests. Miami’s ability to pressure the quarterback and generate chunk plays keeps them live against the number, making Miami +7.5 a strong betting angle. From a player prop perspective, the Hurricanes’ gameplan also keeps Malachi Toney Anytime Touchdown (+145 at FanDuel) firmly in play, giving bettors a plus-money scoring option in a game where Miami should be playing with urgency throughout.

We emphasize that all of the CFB predictions and CFB best bets in this preview are based on 10,000 data-driven simulations of the Miami vs. Indiana game, and they are correct at the time of publication to help you make better decisions when placing bets at online sportsbooks.

Please note that when engaging in online betting, it is important to exercise responsible gambling practices and consult reliable sources for accurate and up-to-date information.

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