Chris ‘The Bear’ Fallica’s CFP Report: Should Miami or Notre Dame be in?

It’s that time of year when three things should never be discussed publicly: politics, religion and the College Football Playoff rankings. 

My team is in. Your team is out. Emotions run hot, especially when it looks like the final CFP spot is coming down to one of the two biggest brands in the sport — Miami and Notre Dame. 

For what it’s worth, currently, Notre Dame’s odds to win it all are +1000; Miami’s are +15000.

It really shouldn’t be that much of a debate, as the Canes beat the Irish 27-24 to open the season in a game the Hurricanes never trailed. 

Yet here we are. 

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Miami’s biggest crime was losing a conference road game to SMU three days before the first CFP rankings were released. The committee ranked Miami 18th and I almost sense there was a feeling in the committee room that Miami would lose again, and it wouldn’t have to concern itself with the Canes. After all, Miami had been 4-11 in games played after Nov. 1 under Mario Cristobal. 

But that didn’t happen. 

In fact, the exact opposite happened. 

The Canes are playing their best ball of the season as they await their postseason fate. In the four games since the SMU loss, Miami is leading all Power 4 teams in completion percentage, sack differential, touchdown passes and lowest 3-and-out punt percentage. 

Miami is top five in yards per play difference, points per drive difference, explosive play difference and scoring margin. 

Yet, Miami remains behind the Irish in not only the CFP rankings but in the AP Poll as well. 

AP pollsters have seemingly treated their rankings like a jai alai game, where if you lose a point, you go to the back of the line. Only 11 pollsters have Miami in the top 10, while no pollster has Notre Dame below 12.

Just 16 of the 66 voters have Miami ahead of Notre Dame, despite the teams having the same record and Miami holding the head-to-head win. Pollster logic says Miami would be better off having lost to Notre Dame and beating SMU. 

Time of loss matters more than the quality of a win. 

What is accurate? Notre Dame power rates higher than Miami and every SEC team. The “Notre Dame would be favored over Miami” argument, while true, loses a little steam when one mentions the Irish were also favored in Week 1 when Miami beat them. 

“Notre Dame is better now” is also a popular argument for supporters of Notre Dame making the playoff.

While that is true, freshman QB C.J. Carr was the best player on the offense that night in Miami for the Irish. But to say the Irish are better now and that’s the reason one should ignore the head-to-head is foolish, because Miami is better now, too. 

Miami had eight new defensive starters and a new defensive coordinator that game. Freshman Malachi Toney — who was playing his first college game — has now become one of the best all-purpose weapons in the country. Freshman RB Girard Pringle, who didn’t play a down that night, has become a featured back. 

Comparing losses is another argument Irish supporters are using to push Notre Dame over Miami in the CFP standings. 

The Irish have the two close losses to top-10 teams — 27-24 at Miami and 41-40 vs. Texas A&M. Miami’s two losses came to unranked teams — 24-21 to Louisville and 26-20 in OT at SMU. 

Now, if Miami and Notre Dame hadn’t actually played, this argument could be used to split hairs. 

If Notre Dame were using this argument against the Oklahomas and Alabamas of the world, it could carry some weight. But when you have an actual head-to-head to compare teams, going down a level to compare losses really doesn’t accomplish much. 

Regarding the Miami losses, people are acting as if Miami lost to Syracuse and Boston College. It didn’t.

SMU is 21st in the Sagarin ratings and Louisville is 27th. It’s kind of a head-scratcher, being the SEC would have you believing wins over Missouri (19), Tennessee (22), LSU (24), Auburn (26) and South Carolina (29) are gritty wins in tough places to play and there are no weeks off in this league.

Notre Dame has been beating most teams handily since opening 0-2. Its best win was over current CFP No. 16 USC in South Bend. It also struggled at what was a 1-7 Boston College team, leading the Eagles just 12-10 with under a minute to go in the third quarter. 

It is interesting that 9-2 Navy, which is 69th in the Sagarin ratings, is ranked by both the AP and the Coaches Poll but is not ranked by the CFP. That is potentially a little bit of a tell on Notre Dame being in a position to flip, because the committee doesn’t appear to have a great opinion on Navy. 

Then there is this: Miami and Notre Dame both have great cases to be ranked higher than most, if not all of those SEC teams. 

Ratings Comparison 

Miami: SAG 6, SP+ 9, FPI 7, GC 6
Notre Dame: SAG 2, SP+ 5, FPI 3, GC 5
Alabama: SAG 7, SP+ 12, FPI 6, GC 7
Georgia: SAG 8, SP+ 6, FPI 8, GC 11
Oklahoma: SAG 13, SP+ 13, FPI 16, GC 9
Ole Miss: SAG 10, SP+ 7, FPI 12, GC 10
Texas A&M: SAG 9, SP+ 8, FPI 10, GC 8

Now, we don’t know for sure what ratings or math the CFP is using to compare these teams, but odds are that it’s not any of the above metrics, as it’s pretty clear which two teams stand out. 

And among those two, we know that they played and who won the game. 

But the Irish certainly have a beef when looking at their power ratings compared to the five SEC teams. 

And as it relates to Miami, the Canes are closer to being a top-five team than a team currently on the outside looking in. The committee talks about the best, most complete teams. OK, here’s one for you.

Two teams currently have a top-30 SOS per Sagarin, meaning they played a schedule in the top 20% of the FBS, and are ranked in the top nine of Sagarin, FPI and SP+. It means they are power rated as one of the best teams in the country, that they have a top-20 unit in both offensive and defensive efficiency — meaning they are a complete team. And these two teams are in the top 10 in Game Control, which means they dominate games and pass the eye test. 

Oregon is one team. Miami is the other. 

Right now, Oregon’s odds to make the CFP are off the board because the Ducks are in; Miami’s odds to make it in are +650.

I normally would say the loser of the SEC Championship Game is safely in the CFP. It’s a game one qualified for and also a game that could be considered a free roll if you lose. Other teams don’t have to play and risk defeat and injury. However, there are a couple of things that could come into play with Alabama.

It would be the Tide’s third loss of the season. Would that trigger a closer look at Alabama’s season, one which began with a 31-17 loss at Florida State, a team that’s currently sitting at 5-7 overall record? The same Florida State team that Miami beat handily in Tallahassee. 

Alabama also hasn’t played great football in over a month. 

The Tide needed a late comeback to win at 4-8 South Carolina, committed three costly turnovers in a home loss to Oklahoma and blew a 17-0 lead at Auburn, only to get a bit of help from the officials and a late fourth-down conversion to get the win at Jordan-Hare. 

Alabama’s running game has been non-existent much of the year against quality competition and QB Ty Simpson — once one of the favorites to win the Heisman Trophy — has seen his play drop dramatically, throwing seven TDs and committing six turnovers in that stretch. 

Might that move the Tide behind both the Hurricanes and Irish with a loss? Or was that move to nine ahead of Notre Dame in this week’s rankings a move to provide security for the Tide, meaning they truly do have a free roll in the SEC title game? 

Based on the odds, that answer could be yes, since Bama is -1800 to make it in.

When we look at Oklahoma, the Sooners look like they’re safely in the Playoff as they are No. 8 in the most recent standings. 

Question is, should they be? 

OU’s offense — ranked 54th in terms of efficiency — is the worst-rated unit of any potential Playoff team. The fourth-ranked defense is in an elite class. But what makes this version of the Sooners any different from the 2024 Miami Hurricanes? That was a team that went 10-2 and had a historic offense led by No. 1 pick Cam Ward, but that also had a poor defense and didn’t play in the conference title game. 

If you look at three widely-used power ratings — Sagarin, SP+ and FPI — OU is 13th, 13th and 16th. Those are not numbers that would get you into the Playoff. 

What OU has going for it is a top-10 strength of schedule and top-10 strength of record. The Sooners’ win at Alabama in a game in which OU was outgained by nearly 200 yards has carried a lot of weight. 

It has triggered a head-to-head-to-head sequence where Ole Miss beat Oklahoma, which beat Alabama, and the committee has honored and respected that head-to-head. 

It also has 9-3 Texas over 10-2 Vanderbilt based on the Longhorns’ win in Austin. Yet the Miami-Notre Dame head-to-head still isn’t being respected? 

Now, what about BYU? 

The good thing for the Cougars is they get the chance to play their way in by winning the Big 12 conference. And good on them for keeping head coach Kalani Sitake! As an at-large, though, BYU just doesn’t have the numbers that support the Cougars being one of the best seven at-large teams in the country. 

They’re 20th in Sagarin, 15th in FPI and 14th in SP+. Yes, they are higher than OU in FPI, which again shows the overall weakness of the Sooners, but with just one top-30 win (Utah) and five wins over teams in the bottom third of the FBS, it’s just not going to happen. 

Things like Game Control, which is a numerical representation of the eye test, has BYU at 14th. The Cougars have found ways to win, coming back in the fourth quarter vs. Colorado, Arizona and Utah. They also beat Cincinnati in close fashion. Their two-loss résumé is nowhere near as good as Alabama, Miami and Notre Dame. 

So where are we headed? 

It sure looks like the move to No. 9 for Alabama is a precursor to keeping five SEC teams in the field. Résumé-wise, the Tide have seven Sagarin top-30 wins; Notre Dame has two. But as I mentioned, it also has the worst loss of any team in consideration.

Texas Tech appears to be safely in the field at No. 4. 

The Red Raiders have a poor SOS (69) and half their wins have come against the bottom third of the FBS. Efficiency-wise, Tech boasts the No. 1 defense in the country and has been bludgeoning opponents. There’s no way the CFP would drop the Red Raiders all the way out after losing to BYU on a neutral field after a dominating win over the Cougars in the regular season.

To put a bow on this, it is my belief we’re ultimately talking about one spot for either Notre Dame or Miami. 

If Texas Tech beats BYU in Saturday’s Big 12 Championship, I feel very confident Miami will jump Notre Dame in the final College Football Playoff ranking, as the head-to-head will finally be too obvious for the committee to overlook, now that Miami and Notre Dame would be side-by-side. 

The only question most of the college football world will be asking is, “What took you so long?”

Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.

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