MIAMI REALTORS® calls out real estate bubble myth

Miami’s real estate bubble might not be what it appears, according to a new report from MIAMI REALTORS®. The association’s research shows that normal supply-and-demand trends led to Miami’s current high prices, rather than an unsustainable bubble like the one associated with the Great Recession.

Compared to pre-pandemic 2019, home prices in Miami-Dade County shot up 77% as of August 2025, outpacing the national average increase of 52% and local wage growth, which only increased 29%.

But the association’s economists argue that rumors about a dangerous real estate bubble in Miami’s market are unfounded, citing the fact that, with the exception of a 2020 spike, the share of residential mortgages to GDP has been declining since the 2009 crash. The share currently sits at 44.5%.

Plus, job growth in the Miami metro area remains strong. Between August 2019 and August 2025, Miami experienced 9.5% growth in non-farm employment compared to 5.5% growth nationally. Job growth performed especially well in high-paying sectors like finance.

Miami’s luxury market also continues to thrive. In 2025, million-dollar home sales accounted for 24% of single-family sales, up from 8% during the same period in 2019. Notably, 46% of million-dollar homes purchases were all-cash.

In 2025, the threshold for a luxury single-family home (95th percentile) rose to $3.5 million, compared to $1.4 million in 2019. Meanwhile, the ultra-luxury threshold price (99th percentile) rose to $10.7 million compared to $3.5 million in 2019.

According to the report, Miami’s market has also succeeded in attracting out-of-staters, as driver license exchanges from out-of-state movers are 22% higher than during the first half of 2019.

Looking toward the future, MIAMI projects the median single-family sales price to increase by 3.4% in 2026 if mortgage rates stabilize at 6%.

“Miami-Dade County’s robust price appreciation has reflected underlying demand and supply fundamentals, not speculative activity that characterizes unsustainable growth such as prior to the Great Recession,” said Gay Cororaton, chief economist at MIAMI REALTORS® . “These underlying fundamentals are tighter access to credit, robust job growth, elevated migration, wealth migration and more luxury home buyers, and the mortgage rate lock-in effect that curtailed new listings in 2022 to 2023. Any price movement is likely to depend on these fundamental factors.”