Heads Carolina, Tails… out of Miami and Florida? | Real Estate
“We can pack up tomorrow, tonight let’s flip a coin…”
The lyrics of the country classic “Heads Carolina, Tails California” might just be the perfect anthem for what’s happening in Florida’s real estate landscape—especially in Miami-Dade County, where, according to reports, the population boom has slowed down, with more residents packing up and heading out than moving in.
According to new U.S. Census Bureau data, 67,418 people left Miami-Dade County between July 1, 2023, and July 1, 2024, making it the Florida county with the highest net domestic migration loss. That means more people moved out of the county—either to other parts of Florida or out of state—than moved in.
And it’s not just Miami-Dade. Neighboring Broward County saw a loss of over 26,000 residents, while Palm Beach County dropped more than 7,500.
What’s behind the mass migration?
The Miami New Times cited the high cost of living and an increasingly unaffordable housing market as key drivers. “Residents are being squeezed left and right,” the article noted—and thousands appear to have had enough.
A separate Redfin report shows a sharp slowdown in new residents moving into Florida, citing:
• Skyrocketing insurance rates
• HOA fees and rising condo assessments
• A wave of natural disasters—including a triple hurricane hit in 2023
• Economic uncertainty and required in-office work
• Competition from more affordable metro areas like Minneapolis and Indianapolis
A reversal of the COVID-era boom
Florida was once the go-to destination during and immediately after the pandemic, with its relaxed COVID-19 rules, no state income tax, and business-friendly climate. But the tide is turning.
“In places where migration is slowing, sale prices are either falling or flat,” Redfin analysts reported. “There’s now a surplus of homes and apartments… and locals being priced out means fewer buyers.”
Miami’s 67,418 net migration loss in 2024 was up from 50,637 in 2023—a year-over-year difference of 16,781. That places the Magic City fifth among U.S. metro areas with the biggest slowdowns in migration.
Topping the list: Tampa, followed by Dallas, Atlanta, and Houston.
Dallas, Atlanta and Houston were ranked 2-3-4 among the biggest slowdown in domestic migration of the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Orlando was sixth.
“People used to move to Florida partly because they could get a deal,” said Bryan Carnaggio, a Redfin Premier agent. “Now, people can’t afford to move here. The first questions from out-of-staters are, ‘How bad are the hurricanes? How high are insurance rates?”
To view the full report, including methodology and a full metro-level summary, click here.
