NASCAR Cup Series at Homestead-Miami odds, expert picks with Kyle Larson the favorite
NASCAR heads to one of the Cup Series’ best tracks this Sunday at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Kyle Larson is a significant favorite this week, with a strong track record (no pun intended?) of laps led here. But will he win?
Our NASCAR experts, Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi, are back to answer all of our questions about the race this weekend and make some predictions for the winner along the way.
How to watch the Straight Talk Wireless 400
- Track: Homestead-Miami Speedway
- Time: Sunday, March 23, 3 p.m. ET
- TV: FS1
- Streaming: Fubo (try for free)
NASCAR Cup Series at Miami predictions, Q&A
What you wrote about Bubba Wallace’s different approach at Vegas is so interesting. It basically seemed like a “Don’t overthink it, don’t over-practice” strategy. Do you think he’ll continue to embrace that, or was it just a gut feeling at that moment?
Jeff: It’s still only six weeks into the season, but Wallace definitely seems to have a different mindset since he and his wife, Amanda, welcomed their son, Becks, last fall. Wallace has said he’s recommitted himself to getting fit and has a stricter routine with new crew chief Charles Denike. Wallace always has been a confidence-driven racer, so any positive vibes will certainly help.
Jordan: The approach is working with Wallace, a notoriously slow starter, off to a solid beginning to the 2025 season. Yes, he only has a single top 10 and his average finish is 23rd, but he’s earning stage points at a better rate and running better than his average finish indicates. If he can turn his luck around — for example, he got caught up in a multi-car accident late at Las Vegas that wasn’t his fault — he has a good chance to jump up the points standings from his current 11th spot.
On that same topic, among NASCAR drivers, does everyone generally try to find a balance between analysis and clearing the headspace? Is there a divide in personality/approach?
Jeff: It’s widely varied. At Spire Motorsports, for example, Michael McDowell is one of the most detail-oriented, data-focused drivers in the garage. He is absolutely glued to the analysis side to try to find speed. But his young second-year driver teammate, Carson Hocevar, largely eschews any data or study and likes to go off feel. McDowell has said that could prevent Hocevar from having his talent truly blossom, but feels he needs to beat Hocevar often enough to prove his point and get Hocevar into the data study game.
Jordan: Every driver has a different approach, something they’ve found works best for them. It’s not much different than other sports where athletes use a variety of methods to both improve performance and disconnect when they need to.
With apologies to Hocevar, can you talk a little more about what we might expect with his inventive racing lines at Homestead? Is the cat out of the bag? How often does a driver hit on something fresh like this at a well-known track?
Jeff: It’s pretty rare, and Hocevar didn’t even want me to talk about it. But this is very much a copycat field and the teams seem to have studied every possibility. So when a driver starts doing something others are not, the other teams all can tell if there’s speed to be found in that same area. And they’ll quickly tell their drivers to do the same. So if Hocevar’s creative line is successful again, expect others to copy it – especially if they’re not as good at running the wall (which is what most believe is the fastest way around Homestead).
Jordan: The thing with NASCAR is that nothing stays a secret for long. This is very much a copycat sport. So any advantage a driver or team has today will likely be minimized and copied in short order. That proprietary data is now so accessible has only shortened this window even more than, say, a decade ago.
What should we be excited about at Homestead? Will we see something wild like Tyler Reddick’s last-lap pass?
Jeff: Homestead is one of NASCAR’s best tracks because of its progressive banking (which offers a variety of lines for drivers to try) and its worn-out pavement. It’s one of those venues where the best drivers can rise to the top, which makes it a battle of strength. If you’re into seeing the elite racers go wheel-to-wheel without as many shenanigans, this is your kind of race.
Jordan: Homestead is one of the very best tracks in NASCAR, a place that is universally loved. Drivers love it for a multitude of reasons, but chief among them is that they have options on what line to run around the track that allows them to best showcase their skill set. One thing to note about Sunday’s race is that with this not being a playoff race, drivers may be more willing to push the envelope than they would’ve otherwise. This could make Sunday quite interesting, especially in the latter laps.
Who is your favorite to win a Homestead?
Jeff: Sorry to pick the favorite again, but I’m going Kyle Larson. Even though he incredibly only has one victory there, he’s led by far the most laps among active drivers in roughly half the starts as the next-closest competitors (Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin). He could have won this race in 2023, but he made a huge mistake and crashed into the sand barrels; last year, he spun out while racing for the lead. If you think Larson can have a mistake-free race, he could be your guy.
Jordan: This is Kyle Larson’s personal playground. And as long as he doesn’t take himself out — like he did last fall or the year when he inexplicably ran into the barrels at the entrance to pit road — this is his race to win or lose.
Who is a long shot you like?
Jeff: I’m going to guess the sportsbooks don’t know about the Hocevar line. It worked to get him a top-10 finish in both stages last year as well as in the race, and he’s +5000? Maybe we should have kept this our little secret after all.
Jordan: Maybe not much of a long shot considering he won a week ago, but Josh Berry is someone to watch on Sunday. This track plays to his strengths as a driver who knows how to best conserve tires, and he is often fast over a long run. He also finished 11th in his only Cup start here.
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(Photo of Kyle Larson: Jonathan Bachman / Getty Images)
