Breaking Down The Miami Heat’s Huge NBA Draft Dilemma

The Miami Heat are in the middle of a rock and a hard place when it comes to their draft pick situation.

The Heat (29-40) are the 10th seed in the Eastern Conference. Making the playoffs, (or not), is pivotal to figuring out what the next few seasons could look like.

The Heat owe a top-14 protected first round pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder in this year’s draft, a pick which was first dealt in the trade that landed Jimmy Butler. The Heat are in the midst of a nine-game losing streak, with the Houston Rockets (45-25) rolling into town on Friday night.

The Heat have the eighth-worst record in the league and the No. 8 pick before the draft lottery. Even if they win two consecutive games in the Play-In Tournament and make the playoffs, they’d still convey their first rounder to the Thunder.

If the Heat don’t advance out of the Play-In Tournament, they keep their first rounder. They’d lose their first rounders in 2026 and 2028, fully unprotected. The issue is twofold.

Because the Heat’s 2025 pick won’t convey, it rolls over to the next season without any protections. The same applies to the 2027 top-14 protected first rounder the Heat owe to the Charlotte Hornets, (sent as part of the Terry Rozier trade). Under the Stepien Rule, teams are not allowed to send future first-rounders in consecutive years. This prevents the Heat from being able to convey the 2027 first rounder to the Hornets, which then becomes unprotected in 2028.

The Heat also own the Golden State Warriors’ top-10 protected first round pick this season, which they acquired in the Butler trade. If the season ended today, that pick belongs to the Heat at No. 22.

The Heat are essentially choosing between owning two different sets of picks. They either make the playoffs and give up their lottery pick this season and a lottery-protected pick in 2027, or miss the playoffs and give up unprotected first rounders in 2026 and 2028.

It has been reported by others the Heat prefer to convey their first rounder this season to avoid having to send two unprotected first rounders in the future. This is an understandable position, as the team has won just four of their 20 games since trading Butler. This has left many wondering if the Heat are en route to another rough season. They wouldn’t even get to reap the benefits of being bad, with potential disaster (giving up unprotected lottery picks) looming.

The Heat likely won’t make the playoffs this season. They will be heavily incentivized to accelerate their retooling of the roster. With more promising young players and trade-able draft capital in hand, it’s easy to imagine they’d be back to ‘whale-hunting’ this offseason.

Alexander Toledo is a contributor to Miami Heat On SI. He can be reached at ToledoAlexander22@gmail.com. Twitter: @tropicalblanket