Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks odds, picks and predictions
The Miami Heat (26-28) and Milwaukee Bucks (31-24) meet Sunday. Tip-off from Fiserv Forum is scheduled for 6 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NBA odds around the Heat vs. Bucks odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Bucks lead 2-0
The Heat are coming off a cover as 3.5-point favorites in a 120-111 OT win at the Toronto Raptors Friday as the Over (219.5) hit. G Tyler Herro had a team-high 28 points for Miami, which snapped a 4-game skid.
The Bucks won 104-101 at the Washington Wizards Friday, failing to cover as 5-point favorites with the Under (229.5) cashing. F Kyle Kuzma had 19 points in his return to Washington — his total was set at 19.5. F Giannis Antetokounmpo went way under his points total (24.5), scoring 18 points in 19 minutes of play before fouling out with 3:36 remaining.
The Bucks have covered both meetings this season, with the Over/Under (O/U) going 0-2. In their last meeting Jan. 23, Milwaukee won 125-96 as a 5.5-point home favorite with the Under (224) hitting. Bucks G Damian Lillard had 29 points, 11 assists and 9 rebounds.
Heat at Bucks odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:46 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Heat +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Bucks -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Heat +4.5 (-105) | Bucks -4.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: 220.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Heat at Bucks key injuries
Heat
- G Tyler Herro (shoulder) probable
Bucks
- F Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) probable
- G Damian Lillard (hamstring) probable
- F Bobby Portis (suspension) out
- F Taurean Prince (ankle) probable
- G Gary Trent Jr. (knee) probable
For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.
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Heat at Bucks picks and predictions
Prediction
Bucks 112, Heat 103
Moneyline
The Bucks (-200) are on a 3-game winning streak and have dominated Miami this season. However, at these odds, laying 4.5 points is the preferred play.
PASS. Bet the spread and/or total instead.
Against the spread
The Bucks covered the first 2 meetings this season and are 2-1 ATS in their last 3 games overall. Milwaukee was on pace to cover at the Wizards Friday — leading by 7 with 2:54 remaining — but Washington hit a couple of key 3-pointers late despite shooting 3’s at the second-worst clip in the NBA (33.4%).
Miami is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games and has not covered 2 straight since a 2-game ATS win streak Jan. 25-27. The Heat were also somewhat lucky to cover at Toronto Friday, as they were trailing by 3 points with 53 seconds remaining before forcing OT.
BET BUCKS -4.5 (-115).
Over/Under
The Under has hit in 3 straight meetings. The Bucks are also 3-0 to the Under in their last 3 outings overall, allowing just 104 points per game.
Can Miami score enough points to help the Over hit Sunday? It has scored 108 or fewer points in 9 of its last 13 games, so it doesn’t seem likely.
BET UNDER 220.5 (-105).
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