South Florida’s Housing Market Gets ‘Troubling Sign’

The recent explosive rise in inventory in the Sunshine State’s city of Fort Lauderdale is a “troubling sign for the future of home prices” in South Florida, real estate analyst Nick Gerli warned.

According to Redfin’s latest data, there were 9.84 months of supply in Broward County, where Fort Lauderdale is located, this month—”the highest level [in Fort Lauderdale] since the end of the 2007-12 crash” Gerli, CEO of Reventure App, wrote on X. The data takes the 12-week rolling average of inventory and divides it by monthly sales.

“It’s shocking how fast the situation is deteriorating in Florida,” Gerli said.

Why It Matters

A majority of housing and real estate experts expect the pace of home price growth to slow down in Florida this year, while in some of the state’s most overvalued markets, prices may start dropping. The main reason behind this expected slowdown is rising inventory in the Sunshine State, which in the past few years approved more building projects than any other state in the nation, with the exception of Texas.

While this is good news for buyers in the state, who have been struggling with an ongoing affordability crunch, there are other factors contributing to the slowdown of the South Florida housing market which are less than positive. New legislation requiring regular inspections of Florida’s aging condos and forcing homeowner associations to have the necessary funds to undergo needed repairs and maintenance has triggered an explosion of listings in South Florida, with condo owners trying to offload properties few are interested in buying.

What To Know

Inventory has been growing across the entire country, according to Redfin, which found that there were 3.7 months of for-sale supply in the U.S. in January, the most in six years. Florida cities including Cape Coral, Miami, and Fort Lauderdale topped the real estate brokerage’s list of places which have become buyer’s markets.

Cape Coral topped the list with 11.6 months of supply in January, up from 8.6 months a year ago. Miami was second with 11.4 months of supply, +3 months year over year, followed by McAllen, Texas, with 10.5 months, +2.5 months YoY, Fort Lauderdale with 10.3 months, +2.9 months YoY, and West Palm Beach, with 9.6 months, +1.8 months YoY.

While buyers have more options to choose from, some are struggling to see the benefits of these turning market dynamics.

“What’s crazy is that home values in Fort Lauderdale haven’t dropped yet,” Gerli wrote. “In fact, home values are up +0.1 percent YoY in Broward County through January 2025,” he added. According to Redfin data, home prices in Fort Lauderdale were up 27.5 percent in January compared to a year earlier, with the median sale price of a home set at $642,000—much higher than the national average of $418,478 and the state average of $410,500.

“This situation today in South Florida feels very similar to 2006-07, in terms of vibe in the market. Back then inventory had spiked, but prices hadn’t really dropped yet,” Gerli said.

What People Are Saying

Redfin economics research lead Chen Zhao said in a statement: “Historically, a buyer’s market has been defined as when months of supply reaches four-six months—but old definitions don’t fit the reality of today’s market. Many buyers don’t feel like they are in a buyer’s market, with home prices at near-record highs and mortgage rates elevated. But we are more than halfway through the decade and this is the first time we can say that buyers have as much, if not more, power than sellers.”

Bryan Carnaggio, a Redfin Premier agent in Jacksonville, Florida, said in a statement shared by the real estate brokerage: “There’s a ton of inventory. Everywhere you go, there’s a house for sale. Most sellers here know the market is bad and it’s not advantageous to sell right now, but either they’re tired of waiting for things to improve, or they really have to sell because they are moving out of state. For buyers, this means there are more opportunities to negotiate on price and terms.”

What Happens Next

In those years preceding the financial crisis, Gerli said, there was an “odd suspension of disbelief in the market where it was obvious that the market had stalled, and was trending down, but there was a resistance to acknowledging a price crash was coming.” What followed was the housing crash of 2007-08 and one of the biggest recession in history. During this year, home prices in Fort Lauderdale dropped dramatically.

But the situation in the city is different this time, Gerli said. “We don’t have nearly as many bad mortgages in this market in 2025. And thus far there has been no major recession, which has kept home prices in South Florida buoyant despite deteriorating market fundamentals,” he wrote on X. “However, the longer inventory remains high, the more likely it becomes that prices drop. Especially with how overvalued prices are in Fort Lauderdale.”

According to Reventure App data, Broward County homes were 32 percent overvalued in early 2025 compared to long-term norms. “This is close to the highest overvaluation in the market’s history,” Gerli said.