Series Preview: Milwaukee Brewers @ Miami Marlins
Coming off a disappointing weekend loss to the Houston Astros, the Brewers now head to Florida as they prepare to take on the Miami Marlins for three games beginning Monday evening.
Milwaukee is still in first place, leading the Cubs by two games with a 27-19 record as we near the end of May. Miami, on the other hand, has struggled all season, as they currently have the worst record in the NL at 15-33, 19 games behind the NL East-leading Phillies. The Marlins have won each of their last two series, taking two of three from both the Mets and Tigers after salvaging the series finale with Philadelphia.
Offensively, the Marlins have really struggled, though Bryan De La Cruz has been one bright spot. He’s hitting .260/.308/.448 and leads the team with nine homers, nine doubles, 25 RBIs, and 26 runs scored in 48 games this season. All-Star Jazz Chisholm is also having a solid season, hitting .254/.330/.424 with six homers, eight doubles, eight steals, 24 RBIs, and 23 runs in 47 games. Other key names include struggling third baseman Jake Burger, outfielders Nick Gordon and Jesus Sanchez, and first baseman Josh Bell, who the Brewers are familiar with from his time with the Pirates. The team is 23rd in the league with 41 homers while they’re 29th in OPS with a .638 clip, outpacing only the White Sox (.608).
On the mound, the Marlins have been decimated by injuries, as starters Edward Cabrera (right shoulder), Sandy Alcantara (Tommy John), and Eury Perez (UCL tear) are all out for extended periods with arm injuries. Alcantara and Perez are both out for the season, while Cabrera is expected to return in June. Out of the bullpen, Andrew Nardi leads the team in appearances at 23, though he sports a 5.79 ERA and has four blown saves. Anthony Bender has a 6.52 ERA through 20 appearances, while a few bright spots include closer Tanner Scott (1.89 ERA, 5-for-6 in save opportunities) and reliever Declan Cronin (1.64 ERA in 22 innings). As a staff, the Marlins rank 29th in ERA this season at 5.00, ahead of only the Rockies at 5.34.
Probable Pitching Matchups
Monday, May 20 @ 5:40 p.m: Joe Ross (2-4, 4.61 ERA) vs. Ryan Weathers (2-4, 3.81 ERA)
Ross has had a solid May through three starts thus far, going 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA and 12 strikeouts across 16 innings. He got the win against the Pirates his last time out, allowing two runs with six strikeouts across five frames. In nine career appearances against the Marlins (five starts), he’s 2-2 with a 2.53 ERA and 26 strikeouts across 32 innings.
In his first full season with Miami, Weathers has been a cornerstone of an otherwise weak rotation. Through nine starts, he’s 2-4 with a 3.81 ERA and 38 strikeouts. He’s been especially good in May, including eight shutout frames against the Tigers last week. He allowed just three hits in that game, striking out four on 97 pitches. The son of former Brewer David Weathers, this will be his second career start against Milwaukee. He allowed no runs on one hit and two walks with five strikeouts over four innings in his first appearance.
Tuesday, May 21 @ 5:40 p.m: Robert Gasser (2-0, 0.82 ERA) vs. Trevor Rogers (1-6, 5.79 ERA)
Robert Gasser has been better than anyone could have hoped for in his first two career starts. Earning the win in both outings, he’s allowed just one run across 11 innings, striking out six while giving up eight hits and a walk. He’s hovered around 80 pitches in each of his first two appearances (79 in his MLB debut, 82 against the Pirates on Wednesday) as he’s made his return from an elbow injury that sidelined him to open the season.
After coming in second in NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2021, Rogers has had two-plus rough seasons, including an injury-shortened 2023 in which he appeared in just four games. He’s currently tied for the league lead with six losses across nine starts this season, with an ERA near 6.00. He’s had an especially rough month of May allowing 13 runs (12 earned) in just 10 2⁄3 innings. He did manage to hold the Tigers scoreless across five innings his last time out as he got his first win of the season. He’s been stellar against the Brewers in his career, as he’s 3-0 with a 1.10 ERA and 21 strikeouts in 16 1⁄3 innings across three starts.
Wednesday, May 22 @ 5:40 p.m: Freddy Peralta (3-2, 4.17 ERA) vs. Jesus Luzardo (1-3, 5.02 ERA)
After getting off to another strong start, Milwaukee’s ace has struggled his last few times out. He has arguably his worst start of the season in Friday’s loss to the Astros, allowing five runs on eight hits and a walk with six strikeouts in five innings of work. His ERA is at 6.19 in May, as he’s allowed at least three runs in each of his three starts and he walked a season-high six in a loss to the Cubs on May 5. In eight career appearances (five starts) against Miami, Peralta is 3-2 with a 4.94 ERA and 38 strikeouts in 27 1⁄3 innings.
Luzardo is now in his third full season with the Marlins, though it hasn’t been anything to write home about. He has an ERA at 5.02 through seven starts this season, though that number is inflated by one really rough start against the Yankees from early April. He’s struck out 42 across 37 2⁄3 innings. Like Weathers and Rogers, Luzardo is coming off one of his better starts of the year, allowing no runs on five hits with seven strikeouts over six innings in a win over the Mets. He’s 0-1 with a 7.20 ERA and nine strikeouts in 10 career innings (two starts) against the Brewers.
Prediction
Though the Marlins are in the cellar of the NL East and Milwaukee is currently atop the NL Central, these two teams are seemingly trending in opposite directions over the last week or so. Still, I’m confident in Milwaukee’s offense against a depleted Marlins pitching staff. I’ll take the Brewers to win two of three.
