Five pressing question for Miami Heat as NBA season resumes
MIAMI – The midseason malaise is undeniable in the NBA, the period between Christmas and the All-Star break. This season, it felt even more pronounced, with the league juicing up the early portion of the schedule with the In-Season Tournament.
But now, except for the lottery languishers, it is go time, a two-month sprint to the playoffs, which now are just eight weeks away.
For the Miami Heat, it resumes in the most challenging fashion, a four-game trip that opens Friday against the New Orleans Pelicans and then concludes in an NBA Finals rematch next Thursday against the Denver Nuggets.
The concern is the questions that remain, from the injury status of Terry Rozier (knee) to Josh Richardson (shoulder), as well as cohesion yet to be fully developed, with 29 lineups having been put into play over the first 15 games, featuring a total of 16 starters.
1. Is the roster finally set?
A. Even with the buyout-market addition of Delon Wright, there appears to be at least one more move that is possible.
Should the Heat waive the contract of Dru Smith ahead of the April 14 regular-season finale, they could add another playoff-eligible player to the postseason roster. Smith, on an expiring contract, is out for the season following December knee surgery.
In fact, if the Heat make such a move by March 3, the deadline for signing a two-way player, they then could add another two-way player into their developmental pipeline.
2. Is the roster complete?
A: That is a subtle difference from the thought above. Moving one of the two-way players to a standard deal, such as Jamal Cain, and adding a two-way player wouldn’t necessarily make the Heat whole.
What this team still lacks is a big body behind Bam Adebayo to wrestle with the biggest of big men in the playoffs, the type of players the Heat added in previous playoff runs in Dewayne Dedmon and Cody Zeller.
Such an addition, if available, could prove prudent considering the size of some of the East competition.
Players waived by other teams by March 1 or those who have not been in the NBA this season beyond 10-day contracts, are eligible to be signed any time before the regular-season finale to be playoff eligible.
3. And the playoff starting lineup will be?
A: Beyond Adebayo, Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro, it could prove fluid.
That even could be the case with Rozier after he returns from his knee strain. Should Erik Spoelstra initially play Rozier off the bench upon his return, it would allow for experimentation without the look of a demotion.
The third wing beyond Herro and Butler could wind up being a defender (Caleb Martin?) or a spacer (Duncan Robinson?).
As for power forward, that could well prove to be matchup based, since you might not go the same way in the playoffs against Jayson Tatum as Giannis Antetokounmpo at the four.
4. Will the play-in be avoided?
A: That well could come down to the final two games of the season, a pair of matchups at Kaseya Center against the Toronto Raptors, who could be thoroughly disinterested by then.
But the single biggest factor in the equation of play-in or no play-in likely will be how much Butler pushes himself through a closing schedule that still has five remaining back-to-back sets, all of which involve travel.
So pace himself to the regular-season finish line?
Or push to be guaranteed at least five days off the week of April 14 as others compete in the play-in bracket?
5. What will be the swing votes when it comes to the final record?
A: Three games remain against the Detroit Pistons; those must be maximized. There also are two games apiece remaining against the Portland Trail Blazers, Washington Wizards and Raptors, as well as single games against the back-end-of-the-standings Utah Jazz and Houston Rockets. Victories in those 11 (although nothing with this Heat team can be assumed), would assure at least 41 wins.
From there, anything else in the other 16 remaining games would get the Heat above .500. The question is, to what degree? Last season it took 45-37 to secure No. 6, the spot above the play-in bracket, with a similar win percentage currently holding that spot this season.
